Kevin Wenke CFP - Decision Tree Financial

12/31/2025

The SP 500 ended up 16%. Including the dividend and assuming it was reinvested, the total return was 17.5%. After the 10% decline in the early part of the year, this worked out pretty good for those 100% invested in stocks.

How did we do?

Our long option position on the S&P 500 appreciated by 8.5% this year. The "decay" of the option premium drags this down.

However...

Our cash position (91% of the portfolio) returned 3.9% this year.

But we leverage that cash as collateral reserves to sell short-term options to speculative investors. Our short-term option-selling strategy returned 20.8% this year.

Therefore, the total return of the "Freedom Leveraged Strategy" was 33.2%

Just to remind you, the Freedom Leveraged Strategy is designed to protect capital. With 91% in cash, your portfolio is safe from crashes.

By leveraging LEAPS on the SP 500, we put you in a position to earn market returns.

By using statistics, trends, and technical analysis, we sell other investors market contracts that are likely to expire worthless, keeping the premium. There is a risk in doing this, but we never leave your portfolio open to losing more than 1% in any given week.

In the next few weeks, I will be launching a new platform with a new message and a rebellious attitude.

Decision Tree Financial will be no more...

Send a message to learn more

08/24/2025

08/13/2025

Is Social Security a "Ponzi Scheme?"

You know, a "pyramid scheme" where new investors pay returns from those who invested earlier.

Maybe?

But that is also how the stock market works too, isnt it?

How about real estate?

Now that I'm thinking about it, isn't the entire financial system kind of a ponzi scheme?

I doubt you will hear calls to sunset the stock or real estate market though.

After all, the companies in these industries are the ones donating to the elected officials.

Not to mention, they stand to gain the most if the Social Security system is shut down.

If it happens, that means more Risk for you.

And its always been about YOU taking more risk while they sit back and collect their fees regardless of whether you succeed or not.

Regardless if they succeed in eliminating Social Security, dont play the game the way they want you to play by...

Learn how to play the way THEY play.

As commissioner, E.J. Antoni would oversee how Cost of Living Adjustment data is produced and published.

06/23/2025

It has been a while since I took a position in COINS, but at 11:50 AM, I sold 590 Calls for $9.46 (expiring on Friday, 6/27) and purchased (for insurance) 601 Calls for $0.62 (expiring tomorrow, Tuesda,y 6/24).

The price of the underlying stock (SPY) is currently $596.20.

With this position, I anticipate that SPY (the S&P 500) will either fall or remain flat compared to its current price of $ 596.20 by Friday.

To make money for investors, I need to buy back the $590 call for less than the $9.46 I sold it for plus the insurance cost I paid.

Therefore, the current max profit is ($9.46 - .62 = $8.84 (1.48% of the share price/portfolios value.)

05/23/2025

https://www.instagram.com/p/DJ6-KdmM6_2/?img_index=1&igsh=MWdmdThzM2swaGQ2

04/17/2025

Below are my COINS Postitions for the week. I am going into the long weekend with a "Call Spread" in anticipation of a down or flat opening on Monday.

For the positions I took and closed this week (assuming SPY closes above 526 today), we made a 2.11% return during a period when the market was Flat.

04/10/2025

Yesterday, around 1 pm, I entered a trade because I believed the market would decline or stay flat from that point.

The public information i used was an increase in volume that pushed the price of the market up that 'fizzled out'" resulting in the markets to decline as volume returned to normal. This set-up indicated to me there were more sellers than buyers.

This trade is detailed in my previous posts and their corresponding comments...

About 20 minutes after i entered this trade, a pause on tariffs were announced. This caused the stock market to skyrocket resuling in a 0.7% loss to my portfolio.

Losses happen, they are part of the game.

What shouldn't be part of the game is people who have access to privileged information using that information for their benefit.

If it can be proved others profited from this, I hope they are prosecuted.

If they aren't, the game is rigged infinitely more than I had imagined.

It has always been apparent that congress has used information to make their investments allowing them to receive extraordinary gains andvaccumulate significant wealth.

They are lawmakers do they aren't going to prosecute themselves.

But now, having a set up where government purposefully promotes policies that 'tank' the market, then tips insiders on a pending reversal of that policy so they can be positioned for significant gain, is a new level of corruption.

I asked ChatGPT if those who made these trades broke the law. Here is the response...

What are your thoughts?

04/09/2025

I entered a new position for the week.

Selling 530 call expiring Friday for $13.30, purchasing 542 call for $5.74.

04/09/2025

In COINS, I sold $495 Calls, expiring Friday, generating $13.50 per share.

I purchased $515 Calls for "insurance", expiring today, for $.45 cents.

With SPY current price at $499.18, I sold some "intrinsic value" as I believe the market will decline. Intrinsic value is the difference between the strike price of the option ($495) and the current price of the underlying stock ($499.18.)

Therefore, as I type this, the intrinsic value of the options we sold is $4.18 and the remaining value ($13.50 - $4.18 = $9.32) is premium that will decay over the next 2.5 days, being $0 at 4:00 pm Friday.

At this time, the value of the option will be what ever the stock price is ABOVE the 'strike price" of the option (strike is $495.

If the stock ends below $495 Friday, the value of the option is $0 and, if we hold it this long, the premium revenue is earnings for the portfolio.

04/08/2025

With today's profit (see previous post) The COINS Strategy (Casino Option INsurance Selling) is up 15.13% Year to Date...

04/08/2025

As of now, my trade yesterday is a big loser. To break even, the stock has to get below 502. It is currently at 514. It isn't out of the question, but I missed this one bad.

In addition, the contracts were "called."

Remember, when we sell call options, we are selling the right for someone else to buy the underlying security for a predetermined price anytime the contract is valid.

The contracts I sold, granted the right to the owner to buy "SPY" at $498 anytime before 4:00 pm today (that is when the contracts expire.)

Today, when 'SPY' was at $520, the owner(s) of the contracts i sold yesterday exercised their right and my broker dealer made me sell them these share to fulfill my contractual obligation.

Since I didn't own shares to sell, my broker has lent them to me. Therefore, our account owes the broker these shares. We will repay the broker by eventually buying the shares at what ever price they are by at least the close of business.

If somehow SPY falls to 502, I'll likely buy them back then.

If the market closes where it is right now, ($516), the call options we purchased granting us the right to buy at $513, will have vale and be exercised.

Because of the $513 calls we own, the maximum we can lose today is $15 minus the premium we collected plus the premium we paid for them.

One last point...

Because we now have "shorted SPY shares, our max profit is $506. That would happen if the stock market crashed to $0. This is unlikely but if selling off accelerates, there is a chance we can buy the shares back far below the $498 price we sold them for.

3.5 hours in the day...there is always the chance for this position to become profitable but I'm not counting on it...

04/07/2025

I sold 498 calls for $10.21 expiring 4/8. Purchased 513 Calls for insurance, expiring today for 2.13.