10/28/2026
📊 Wednesday Newsletter Snippet: Wednesday is the week's double-header
Wednesday packs the two events Monday's post asked about into one day, and both land after this post goes live.
🏦 First, the Fed: 2pm ET, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30pm ET. The expectation is a hold at 3.75%–4.00%, the range set by September's quarter-point hike. The market read, per a Reuters poll of 100 economists (94 expecting a hold) and Kalshi pricing on Oct 26 (hold ~92%), is that October is a skip, not a pivot. All 100 economists in that poll still expect a hike in December. So watch the statement language and the December signal more than the rate itself.
💻 Then, after the close, Alphabet and Microsoft report. Consensus is roughly: Microsoft ~$90.6B revenue, EPS ~$4.71, with Azure growth guided near 45% in constant currency; Alphabet ~$128B revenue, EPS ~$2.94–$3.03, with Google Cloud the focus. The question tying both reports together — and to last Thursday's Nasdaq selloff — is the same one from last week: is cloud growth keeping pace with the hundreds of billions going into AI infrastructure, and what do they guide for capex next?
Why it matters for your money: this is the week the AI trade has to show receipts. A hold with a firm December signal plus strong cloud numbers would calm two worries at once. A hawkish surprise or soft cloud guidance would revive both.
👉 Which Wednesday event are you watching closer: the Fed at 2pm, or Alphabet/Microsoft after the bell? Drop it below.