Stonebridge Home Mortgage llc

10/30/2026

Inflation Climbs



Although oil prices climbed, it was another good week for mortgage markets. Investors continued shifting money out of riskier technology stocks and into safer investments, including bonds, helping push mortgage rates lower.


The Fed meeting on Wednesday revealed no significant surprises. As anticipated, the Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at a range of 3.75 to 4.00%, and the meeting statement was nearly identical to the prior one. Notably, two of the twelve voting Fed officials dissented from the decision, preferring to raise rates by 25 basis points, an unusually high level of disagreement. Fed Chair Warsh continued to emphasize that future policy decisions will depend on incoming economic data rather than providing specific guidance. Although the Fed maintained the
status quo at this meeting, most investors anticipate a rate hike at the next meeting in December.





While the labor market is showing signs of cooling, inflation continues to be something the Federal Reserve is watching closely, and the PCE price index is their favored indicator. In September, core PCE, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, was 3.1% higher than a year ago, up slightly from August. Progress toward the 2.0% target of the Fed has been challenging, and this level has not been seen since February 2021.




Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity. During the third quarter of 2026, U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.4%, above the consensus forecast and up from 2.2% in the second quarter. Consumer spending and business investment remained solid, with much of the business growth tied to continued investment in artificial intelligence. In particular, business spending on mostly technology equipment surged 21%, the most since 2020.


Bottom Line: Expect more volatility in mortgage rates as investors weigh comments from Fed officials, upcoming economic reports, and changing oil prices tied to the conflict in the Middle East. For homebuyers and homeowners watching rates, inflation data will be especially important in the weeks ahead.




Looking ahead, the conflict in the Middle East and oil prices will remain a major focus. For economic reports, the ISM national manufacturing sector index will be released on Monday and the services sector index on Wednesday. JOLTS and the Trade Deficit will come out on Tuesday. The key Employment report will be released on Friday, and these figures on the number of jobs, the unemployment rate, and wage inflation are always closely watched.

10/23/2026

Home Sales Rise



Although oil prices climbed, it was another good week for mortgage markets. Investors continued shifting money out of riskier technology stocks and into safer investments, including bonds, helping push mortgage rates lower.





In September, sales of previously owned homes rose a little from August but still were a bit lower than a year ago. The median price of $417,500 was up 2% from last year at a record high for the month of September. Inventory remains one of the biggest challenges for buyers, but the recent trend has been positive. There is only about a 4.8-month supply of homes nationally, still below the roughly six months typically considered a balanced market. However, inventory was up 5% from a year ago, at the highest level since 2019.




The latest home building data was not encouraging. Overall housing starts in September declined 5% from August, far more than expected, and are running 7% below last year's pace. Single-family starts declined to the lowest level since September 2025, while single-family building permits, a leading indicator of future construction, fell to the lowest level since 2023.


Finally, a survey of home builder sentiment on housing market conditions from the NAHB unexpectedly dropped to 29, the lowest level since 2012, and has remained in negative territory below 50 for thirty straight months. To help generate demand, 66% of builders offered sales incentives in September, while 43% reduced home prices, the most since 2020. Builders cited high mortgage rates, labor shortages, and rising material costs as significant obstacles to increasing new home supply.


The Big Picture: For now, mortgage rates remain caught between competing forces. Investors are continuing to weigh a mix of slowing economic data, stubborn inflation, and global uncertainty. As a result, mortgage rates will probably remain volatile from day to day as investors react to Fed comments, economic data, and geopolitical events. Meanwhile, the housing market continues to face a combination of limited inventory, affordability challenges, and cautious builders.




Looking ahead, attention will remain fixed on the conflict in the Middle East and oil prices. The next Fed meeting will take place on Wednesday, and most investors anticipate that there will be no change in the federal funds rate. The next European Central Bank meeting will take place on Thursday. For economic reports, New Home Sales will come out on Tuesday. The PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, and third quarter GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity, will be released on Thursday.

10/16/2026

Inflation Climbs



Despite some discouraging economic news, mortgage rates had a surprisingly strong week, ending noticeably lower. Oil prices climbed, and the latest inflation reports came in hotter than expected. So, what helped rates move down? Investors began shifting money out of riskier technology stocks and into safer investments, including bonds, helping push mortgage rates lower.





The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, one of the most closely watched inflation indicators, delivered some unwelcome news. In September, prices jumped 0.6% from August. On an annual basis, CPI was 3.7% higher, up from 3.4% in August and the highest level since May. Diesel prices were up over 60% compared with a year ago, hitting a record high.




To reduce short-term volatility and get a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends, investors look at core CPI, which excludes food and energy. In September, Core CPI was 2.6% higher than a year ago, also up from last month. Shelter (housing) costs were up 3.2% on an annual basis and continue to be a primary reason why bringing inflation down to the 2% target of the Fed remains challenging. Airline fares, computers, and used vehicle prices also posted significant increases this month.


A different inflation report released this week, which measures wholesale costs for producers, added to the concerns. The September Producer Price Index (PPI) was 6.3%
higher than a year ago, up from 5.6% in the prior month and far above the consensus forecast. Investors generally tend to place more weight each month on the Consumer Price Index report, which better reflects overall inflation levels in the economy. However, the surprisingly strong PPI reading gave mortgage markets a bigger shock than usual this month.


Despite rising prices and economic uncertainty, consumer spending showed few signs of moderating. Retail sales in September surged 0.8% from August, roughly double the consensus forecast. Consumer spending was a solid 6.3% higher than a year ago, even with higher gas prices. Much of that spending continues to come from higher-income households, supported by continued strength in the stock market. Sustained consumer spending can keep prices elevated, making the path toward lower inflation more complicated.


Bottom Line: Expect more volatility in mortgage rates as investors weigh comments from Fed officials, upcoming economic reports, and changing oil prices tied to the conflict in the Middle East. For homebuyers and homeowners watching rates, inflation data will be especially important in the weeks ahead.




Looking ahead, attention will remain fixed on the conflict in the Middle East and oil prices. It will be a light week for economic reports. The NAHB Housing Index will be released on Monday, and Housing Starts will come out on Tuesday.

10/09/2026

Services Excel



Mortgage markets had another bumpy week as oil prices fluctuated, and investors digested the latest news from the Federal Reserve and the economy. Rates climbed to their highest levels in nearly three years early in the week but settled back down, ending the week close to where they started.





The most significant economic report released this week came from the Institute of Supply Management. The ISM national services sector index was 54.9, close to expectations. The sector remains comfortably in expansion territory above 50, suggesting businesses are still growing despite ongoing economic challenges.




We also got a closer look at the most recent Federal Reserve meeting on September 16 through the release of its meeting minutes. The minutes revealed that Fed officials have differing views on where inflation is headed and what that means for future interest rate decisions. Uncertainty around oil prices and tariffs is making the outlook even harder to predict. For now, the Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach, with future decisions likely to depend heavily on incoming economic data. Investors are increasingly expecting the next policy move to be a rate
hike in December, although that could change as new information comes in.


According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, higher mortgage rates in recent weeks have been negative for overall loan origination activity but have boosted demand for adjustable-rate loans that offer lower rates. Applications to refinance dropped 8% from last week and were a massive 56% lower than one year ago, at the lowest level since February 2025. Purchase applications fell 2% from the prior week and were down 15% from last year at this time. The adjustable-rate mortgage share of total applications rose to over 10%, the highest level in about a year,
up from levels around 3% in the early years of the pandemic.


Bottom Line: There's a lot for investors to keep an eye on right now, including persistent inflation, signs of slower economic growth, and ongoing global uncertainty. All of this could mean more volatility in the weeks ahead. Mortgage rates can change quickly as new economic reports, Fed comments, and global developments hit the headlines.




Looking ahead, attention will remain fixed on the conflict in the Middle East and oil prices. For economic reports, Existing Home Sales will come out on Tuesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a widely followed monthly inflation indicator that looks at the price changes for a broad range of goods and services, will be released on Wednesday. The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales will come out on Thursday. Mortgage markets will be closed on Monday for Columbus Day.

10/02/2026

Job Gains Fall Short



Headlines surrounding the conflict in the Middle East continued to create some ups and downs in mortgage markets this week. A surprisingly weak jobs report also grabbed attention, although it had less of an impact on mortgage rates than you might expect. By the end of the week, mortgage rates were slightly higher.





In September, the U.S. economy gained just 29,000 jobs, the fewest since July, surprising economists who had expected employers to add 85,000 jobs. On top of that, payroll numbers for the previous two months were revised lower by a combined 60,000 jobs. The largest gains were seen in health care and construction, while temporary help services and information services lost jobs.




In addition to the weak headline number, some of the other key components of the report also were softer than expected. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% for the month, bringing annual wage growth to 3.0%. That's down slightly from 3.1% the month before and marks the slowest annual increase since May 2021. Wage growth is barely keeping up with the inflation rate. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%, above the consensus forecast for a flat reading of 4.1%. One encouraging sign in the report was that the participation rate (the percentage of
working-age people in the labor force) improved. After hitting its lowest level since March 2021 two months ago, participation has picked up as significantly more people have entered the workforce.


While the labor market is showing signs of cooling, inflation continues to be something the Federal Reserve is watching closely, and the PCE price index is their favored indicator. In August, core PCE, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, was 3.0% higher than a year ago, the same annual rate as July. Progress toward the 2.0% target of the Fed has been challenging, and this level has not been seen since February 2021. Following the latest labor market and inflation data, most investors now anticipate that the Fed will hold steady at the
October meeting and then hike rates at the December meeting.


Bottom Line: For now, investors are balancing several competing forces: slowing economic growth, persistent inflation, and continued global uncertainty. Inflation has come down significantly from its peak, but it's still well above the Federal Reserve's target. That means the Fed is likely to remain cautious about its next moves. For mortgage rates, that could mean more volatility in the weeks ahead. Daily movements will continue to depend on incoming economic data, comments from the Federal Reserve, and developments around the world.




Looking ahead, attention will remain fixed on the conflict in the Middle East and oil prices. Investors also will monitor comments from Fed officials about future monetary policy. The detailed minutes from the September 16 Fed meeting will come out on Wednesday. It will be a light week for economic reports. The ISM national services sector index will come out on Monday. The Trade Deficit will be released on Tuesday.

09/25/2026

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JUST IN 🚨: 30-Year Mortgage Rate soars to 7.45%, the highest level since April 2024 📈 🏡

09/25/2026

Home Sales Fall



Despite a lack of major economic news, it was a rough week for mortgage markets. The upward trend seen in recent months continued, and mortgage rates climbed to their highest levels in over two years.


Long-term bond yields, including the yields that influence U.S. mortgage rates, have been moving higher around the world for several reasons. First, inflation remains elevated in many countries, and higher oil prices since the start of the conflict in the Middle East have added inflationary pressure. When investors expect inflation to remain higher, they typically want a larger return on their investments to protect their purchasing power. Second, investors are keeping a close eye on government spending. Governments around the world are running large
deficits and need to issue more debt to fund them. With more bonds competing for money from investors, yields generally need to rise to attract buyers. Another factor is the huge amount of money being invested in artificial intelligence. Technology companies are spending heavily on building AI infrastructure, increasing their need for capital. That means they are also willing to offer higher returns on corporate bonds to attract investors. Put it all together, and there's a lot of demand for investor capital at the same time that the supply of bonds is increasing, pushing mortgage rates higher.





In housing news, sales of previously owned homes in August slipped 2% from July to the lowest level since June 2025. Inventory remains one of the biggest challenges for buyers, as there is only a 4.9-month supply of homes nationally, still below the roughly six months typically considered a balanced market. In another report, a survey of home builder sentiment on housing market conditions from the NAHB unexpectedly dropped to 32, the lowest level in a year, and has remained in negative territory below 50 for twenty-nine straight months.




According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, higher mortgage rates in recent weeks have been negative for overall loan origination activity but have boosted demand for adjustable-rate loans that offer lower rates. Applications to refinance dropped 3% from last week and were a massive 62% lower than one year ago, at the lowest level since February 2025. Purchase applications fell 1% from the prior week and were down 11% from last year at this time. The adjustable-rate mortgage share of total applications rose to nearly 10%, the highest level in almost a
year.


Bottom Line: Expect more volatility in mortgage rates as investors digest comments from Fed officials, upcoming economic reports, and changing oil prices tied to the conflict in the Middle East. Housing activity may be challenged if rates do not ease in the months ahead.




Looking ahead, attention will remain fixed on the conflict in the Middle East and oil prices. Investors also will monitor comments from Fed officials about future monetary policy. For economic reports, Personal Income and the PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, will be released on Wednesday. The ISM national manufacturing sector index will come out on Thursday. The key Employment report will be released on Friday, and these figures on the number of jobs, the unemployment rate, and wage inflation are always closely
watched.

09/11/2026

Higher Oil Prices



Mortgage rates moved higher again this week, reaching their highest levels in more than a year. One of the biggest factors behind the move? Rising oil prices and growing concerns about inflation.





Interestingly, the latest inflation report didn't have much of an impact on the markets. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed prices rising 0.4% in August, which was right in line with expectations. On an annual basis, inflation came in at 3.4%, unchanged from the previous month.




To reduce short-term volatility and get a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends, investors look at core CPI, which excludes food and energy. In August, Core CPI was 2.4% higher than a year ago, down from 2.5% last month and the lowest annual rate since March 2021. Shelter (housing) costs were up 3.0% on an annual basis and continue to be a primary reason why bringing inflation down to the 2% target of the Fed remains challenging. Airline fares and used vehicle prices also posted significant increases this month. Investors now are pricing in a
roughly 90% chance that the Fed will raise the federal funds rate at its meeting next week.


On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its benchmark interest rate by the anticipated 25 basis points to 2.50%. Policymakers cited rising energy costs and their potential impact on food, goods, and services prices. The ECB also acknowledged increased uncertainty stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and in Ukraine, which could create additional inflation pressures while weighing on economic growth. Investors currently expect further rate increases from the ECB in the coming months.


Bottom Line: There's a lot for investors to weigh right now: slower economic growth, inflation that remains elevated, and continued uncertainty around the world. For mortgage rates, that means we could see more volatility in the weeks ahead. Rates will continue to react to incoming economic data, Federal Reserve comments, and major developments around the world.




Looking ahead, attention will remain fixed on the conflict in the Middle East and oil prices. The next Fed meeting will take place on Wednesday, and the majority of investors anticipate an increase in the federal funds rate. For economic reports, Retail Sales will be released on Wednesday. Since consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, the retail sales data is a key measure of the health of the economy. Housing Starts will come out on Thursday.

09/04/2026

Job Gains Surge



Headlines surrounding the conflict in the Middle East continued to create some ups and downs in mortgage markets this week. At the same time, a surprisingly strong jobs report had less of an impact on rates than you might expect. By the end of the week, mortgage rates were slightly higher.





In August, the U.S. economy gained a massive 162,000 jobs, the most since March, surprising economists who had expected employers to add just 55,000 jobs. On top of that, payroll numbers for the previous two months were revised higher by a combined 55,000 jobs. The largest gains were seen in restaurants/bars, education, and manufacturing.




Despite the strong headline number, some of the other details were more in line with expectations. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month, bringing annual wage growth to 3.1%. That's down slightly from 3.2% the month before and marks the slowest annual increase since May 2021. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, while the participation rate (the percentage of working-age people in the labor force) improved. After hitting its lowest level since March 2021 last month, participation has picked up as significantly more people have entered the
workforce.


We also received two closely watched reports on business activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The services sector unexpectedly jumped to 55.4, while manufacturing dropped a bit to 54.6 from its strongest reading since May 2022 last month. Both sectors remain comfortably in expansion territory above 50, suggesting businesses are still growing despite economic headwinds. Shifting consumer preferences and higher tariffs on imported goods have helped domestic manufacturers narrow the performance gap with service firms over the last few
years.


Bottom Line: For now, investors are balancing several competing forces: slowing economic growth, persistent inflation, and continued global uncertainty. Inflation has come down significantly from its peak, but it's still well above the Federal Reserve's target. That means the Fed is likely to remain cautious about its next moves. For mortgage rates, that could mean more volatility in the weeks ahead. Daily movements will continue to depend on incoming economic data, comments from the Federal Reserve, and developments around the world.




Looking ahead, attention will remain fixed on the conflict in the Middle East. Investors also will monitor comments from U.S. Fed officials about future monetary policy. The next European Central Bank meeting will take place on Thursday. For economic data, Existing Home Sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI) will come out on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a widely followed monthly inflation indicator that looks at the price changes for a broad range of goods and services, will be released on Friday. Mortgage markets will be closed on Monday for
Labor Day.

08/21/2026

Home Sales Slip



Mortgage markets were pulled in different directions this week. Rising tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, which raised concerns about future inflation. That pressure was offset by the Treasury's announcement that it plans to significantly increase its purchases of longer-term government debt. The economic data released this week had only a modest impact, and mortgage rates finished with little overall change.


One of the biggest developments was the continued growth of U.S. government debt, which topped $40 trillion this week, more than double the $19 trillion level from ten years ago. As investors have demanded more compensation to hold that debt, longer-term yields have moved higher. With an eye on this, the Treasury announced on Wednesday that it will at least double the maximum amount of its purchases of government debt over the next few months from the current $2 billion limit. According to the Treasury, the purchases will focus on maturities of ten to
thirty years to provide greater liquidity to longer-term bond markets. This added demand for bonds caused yields to decline, including yields on mortgage-backed securities, which was positive for mortgage rates.





In July, sales of previously owned homes slipped 2% from June but still were up slightly from a year ago. The median price of $434,100 was up 2% from last year. Inventory remains one of the biggest challenges for buyers. There is currently only about a 4.6-month supply of homes nationally, still below the roughly six months typically considered a balanced market. Inventory was also slightly lower than it was a year ago.




The latest home building data was not encouraging. After surging 19% in the prior month, overall housing starts in July plunged 13% from June, far more than expected. Single-family starts declined for the fourth straight month to the lowest level since November 2022 and are running 16% below last year's pace. On a more positive note, single-family building permits, a leading indicator of future construction, rose 3% from June and were up slightly from a year ago.


A survey of home builder sentiment on housing market conditions from the NAHB unexpectedly rose slightly to 35 but has remained in negative territory below 50 for twenty-eight straight months. To help generate demand, 63% of builders offered sales incentives in July, while 35% reduced home prices. Builders continue to cite rising land, labor, and material costs as significant obstacles to increasing new home supply.


The big picture: For now, mortgage rates remain caught between competing forces. Inflation concerns and elevated government debt are putting upward pressure on longer-term yields, while Treasury bond purchases are providing some support. Meanwhile, the housing market continues to face a combination of limited inventory, affordability challenges, and cautious builders.




Looking ahead, attention will remain fixed on the conflict in the Middle East and the proposed deal to ease tensions. Investors also will monitor comments from Fed officials about future monetary policy. For economic data, Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales will come out on Tuesday. Personal Income and the PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, will be released on Wednesday. In addition, the Jackson Home economic summit will take place next week, and central bank officials sometimes make important announcements at this
event.