Stonebridge Home Mortgage llc

05/29/2026

Home Sales Rise



Headlines about progress to end the conflict in the Middle East continued to be the primary driver for mortgage markets, while the economic data caused little reaction. After climbing to their highest levels since July early in the week, mortgage rates reversed and ended slightly lower.





In April, sales of previously owned homes rose slightly from March, close to expectations, and were unchanged from a year ago. The median price of $417,700 was up just a slim 1% from last year at this time. Inventories remain stuck at low levels, standing at just a 4.4-month supply nationally, well below the roughly 6-month supply typical in a balanced market. However, inventories were a bit higher than a year ago.




The latest home building data contained mixed news. In April, overall housing starts fell 3% from March, but the consensus forecast was a much larger decline. Multi-family units rose 10% from March to the highest level since May 2023, while single-family starts fell 9%. Single-family building permits, a leading indicator of future construction, dropped 3% from March to the lowest level since August.


A separate survey of home builder sentiment on housing market conditions from the NAHB unexpectedly jumped to 37, well above the consensus forecast of 34. However, it has remained in negative territory below 50 for twenty-five straight months. According to the NAHB, 61% of builders used sales incentives in May and 32% cut prices.




Higher mortgage rates in recent weeks have been negative for overall loan origination activity but have boosted demand for adjustable-rate loans that offer lower rates. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, applications to refinance dropped slightly from last week but still were 35% higher than one year ago. Purchase applications fell 4% from the prior week and were up 8% from last year at this time. The adjustable-rate mortgage share of total applications rose to nearly 10%, the highest level since October 2025.






Looking ahead, attention will remain fixed on the conflict in the Middle East. Investors also will monitor comments from Fed officials about future monetary policy. For economic data, Consumer Confidence will come out on Tuesday. New Home Sales, Personal Income, and the PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, will be released on Thursday. Mortgage markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day.

05/29/2026

Inflation Climbs



Reports of progress to end the conflict in the Middle East continued to be the primary influence for mortgage markets, while the economic data caused little reaction. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week lower.





Fed officials carefully monitor inflation, and the PCE price index is their favored indicator. Core PCE in April was 3.3% higher than a year ago, up from an annual rate of increase of 3.2% in March and the highest level since November 2023. Progress toward the 2.0% target of the Fed has not been easy, and this desired level has not been achieved since February 2021.




One consequence of higher prices for everyday items such as gasoline, groceries, and utilities is that consumers are saving less. The personal savings rate (the share of income Americans have after taxes and expenses) dropped to just 2.6% in April. This was down from 5.8% a year ago and the lowest level since June 2022 during the reopening of the economy after the pandemic. With the boost to incomes from larger tax refunds this year beginning to fade, investors will be keeping a close eye on the spending habits of consumers.


The latest confidence survey published by the Conference Board revealed that consumers remain worried about higher prices, the labor market, and geopolitical tensions. In May, the index dropped to 93.1 from 93.8 in the prior month. The decline was sharpest for lower-income households, for whom higher gasoline prices are eating up a greater share of their budgets. Two-thirds of consumers reported a reduction in spending by cutting back on discretionary items or delaying expensive purchases. Also notable, the share of respondents viewing jobs as not plentiful
rose to the highest level since 2021.




Looking ahead, attention will remain fixed on the conflict in the Middle East. Investors also will monitor comments from Fed officials about future monetary policy. For economic data, The ISM national manufacturing sector index will be released on Monday and the services sector index on Wednesday. JOLTS will come out on Tuesday. The key Employment report will be released on Friday, and these figures on the number of jobs, the unemployment rate, and wage inflation are always closely watched.

05/28/2026

Interesting little read if your considering buying a new home this year 🏡💰

https://www.facebook.com/share/1NhzE1itSz/?mibextid=wwXIfr

A household earning the average income would need to spend 40% of its income to afford the typical U.S. home, according to Redfin.

05/15/2026

Higher Inflation



Rising oil prices were negative for mortgage markets this week, and the latest inflation reports reflected the impact of higher energy prices. As a result, mortgage rates climbed to their highest levels of the year.


The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most closely watched inflation indicators released each month, and investors were prepared for the effects of sharply higher oil prices. In April, CPI jumped 0.6% from March, matching expectations. CPI was 3.8% higher than a year ago, up substantially from an annual rate of 3.3% last month and the highest level since May 2023. Sensitive to fuel prices, airline fares were an enormous 21% higher than a year ago. Also notable, the annual increase in average hourly earnings in April was 3.6%, meaning that wage gains
are no longer keeping up with the inflation rate.





To reduce short-term volatility and get a better sense of the underlying inflation trend, investors look at core CPI, which excludes food and energy. In April, Core CPI was 2.8% higher than a year ago, up from 2.6% last month and the highest level since September 2025. Shelter (housing) costs were up 3.3% on an annual basis and continue to be a primary reason why bringing inflation down to the 2% target of the Fed remains challenging.




A different inflation report released this week, which measures wholesale costs for producers, also reflected the rise in energy prices. The April Producer Price Index (PPI) rose a shocking 1.4% from March, far above the consensus forecast for an increase of 0.5% and the largest monthly gain since March 2022. PPI was 6.0% higher than a year ago, up sharply from an annual rate of 4.0% the prior month and the highest level since December 2022. Its impact was relatively minor, however, as investors tend to place a lot more weight each month on the Consumer
Price Index report, which better reflects overall inflation levels in the economy.


Consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, so the monthly Retail Sales report is a key measure of the health of the economy. While economists had anticipated that larger than usual tax refunds would provide an extra boost again this month, they also had to factor in that the enormous rise in gas prices might drain some of that strength. The actual result was that retail sales in April rose a solid 0.5% from March, matching expectations, but a far cry from the massive increase of 1.6% last month. Strength was seen in
appliances, electronics, sporting goods, and hobbies. Supported by powerful stock market gains, upper-income households continue to purchase at a rapid pace, while lower-income consumers are cutting back discretionary spending to focus on necessities.




Looking ahead, attention will remain fixed on the conflict in the Middle East. Investors also will monitor comments from Fed officials about future monetary policy. The detailed minutes from the April 29 Fed meeting will come out on Wednesday. It will be a light week for economic data. Housing Starts will come out on Thursday.

05/08/2026

Strong Job Gains



Mortgage markets continued to be volatile this week due to mixed headlines about progress to end the conflict in the Middle East. The major economic data caused little reaction, and mortgage rates ended the week slightly lower.


The conflict with Iran has been unfavorable for mortgage rates for a couple of reasons. Most significantly, oil prices have risen substantially, which greatly increases inflationary pressures. In addition, military spending has gone up, and the government may need to issue more bonds to fund the deficit. An increase in supply would cause yields to rise. However, these negative effects could be partially offset if higher energy prices lead to a reduction in global economic growth, which typically lowers the outlook for future inflation.



The key Employment report revealed that the economy added a substantial 115,000 jobs in April, well above the consensus forecast for a gain of 60,000. Strength was seen in healthcare, transportation, social assistance, and retail. On the downside, information services continued to lose jobs.


Looking at the other major components of the report, average hourly earnings, an indicator of wage growth, rose just 0.2% from March, below the consensus forecast for an increase of 0.3%. They were 3.6% higher than a year ago, up from an annual rate of 3.5% last month, which was the lowest level since May 2021. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%, as expected.

Two other significant economic reports from the Institute of Supply Management remained relatively strong but fell a bit short of expectations. The ISM national services sector index declined to 53.6, below the consensus forecast of 54.0, while the ISM national manufacturing sector index was flat at 52.7, below the consensus forecast of 53.0. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion in the sectors. While tariff policies have been in flux since the Supreme Court decision in February, the higher tariffs on foreign goods put in place last year may be helping
domestic manufacturing companies close the performance gap over the last few years with service firms.




Looking ahead, attention will remain fixed on the conflict in the Middle East. Investors also will monitor comments from Fed officials about future monetary policy. For economic data, Existing Home Sales will come out on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a widely followed monthly inflation indicator that looks at the price changes for a broad range of goods and services, will be released on Tuesday. The Producer Price Index (PPI), another monthly inflation indicator, will come out on Wednesday. Import Prices and Retail Sales will be released on
Thursday. Since consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, the retail sales data is a key measure of the health of the economy.

04/24/2026

Consumers Spending Surges



News about negotiations to end the conflict in the Middle East caused volatility for mortgage markets this week. The most significant economic report revealed stronger than expected consumer spending, but its impact was minor. Mortgage rates ended the week a little higher.


Consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, so the monthly Retail Sales report is a key measure of the health of the economy. While economists had anticipated that larger than usual tax refunds would provide extra ammunition, they also had to factor in that the enormous rise in gas prices in March might sap some of that strength. As a result, the consensus forecasts spanned a wide range for this report.





The actual result was a nice surprise to the upside. Retail sales in March surged 1.7% from February, above the consensus forecast of 1.4% and the largest monthly increase in a year. Even excluding the record rise in sales of gas (which are measured by dollar value), unexpected strength was seen broadly. Nearly every category in the report, from furniture to motor vehicles to electronics, posted gains.




The Department of Labor releases the total number of new claims for unemployment insurance each week. The latest reading was just 210,000, below the consensus forecast. Bigger picture, this was far below the inflated figures seen during the early months of the pandemic, and in line with the levels which were typical during the solid labor market in 2019. Weekly jobless claims are important because they are one of the timeliest indicators of labor market trends. While other recent economic reports suggest that companies may be scaling back on hiring new
employees, this report indicates that they remain reluctant to lay off workers.


Lower mortgage rates over the last few weeks have boosted loan origination activity. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, applications to refinance increased 6% from last week and were a massive 152% higher than one year ago. Purchase applications rose 10% from the prior week and were up 14% from last year at this time.




Looking ahead, attention will remain fixed on the conflict in the Middle East. The next Fed meeting will take place on Wednesday, and no change in the federal funds rate is expected. Investors will be looking for guidance about the impact of higher oil prices on future monetary policy. For economic reports, Housing Starts will come out on Wednesday. The PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, will be released on Thursday. First quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic activity, also will come out on
Thursday. The ISM national manufacturing sector index will be released on Friday.

04/17/2026

Home Sales Fall



Progress in reaching a deal to end the conflict in the Middle East caused oil prices to decline, which was positive for both stocks and bonds. Other than that, it was a light week for economic data, and the reports caused little reaction.





An inflation report which measures wholesale costs for producers reflected the rise in energy prices during the month. The March Producer Price Index (PPI) was 4.0% higher than a year ago, up sharply from an annual rate of 3.4% the prior month and the highest level since February 2023. Its impact was minor, however, as investors tend to place a lot more weight each month on the Consumer Price Index report, which better reflects overall inflation levels in the economy.




In March, sales of previously owned homes fell 4% from February, below expectations, to the lowest level since June 2025. Existing home sales were down slightly from a year ago. The median price of $408,800 was up just a slim 1% from last year at this time. Inventories remain stuck at low levels, standing at just a 4.1-month supply nationally, well below the roughly 6-month supply typical in a balanced market. However, inventories were 2% higher than a year ago. Homes are remaining on the market for a median time of 41 days, up from 36 days last year at
this time. The National Association of Realtors now expects existing home sales to increase just 4% in 2026, down from its previous forecast for an increase of 14%, and it expects new home sales to be flat this year.


A survey of home builder sentiment on housing market conditions from the NAHB unexpectedly fell four points to 34, the lowest level since September 2025. It has remained in negative territory below 50 for twenty-four straight months. According to the NAHB, 60% of builders used sales incentives in April and 36% cut prices. 62% of builders reported that suppliers have increased building material costs due to higher fuel prices.




Looking ahead, attention will remain fixed on the conflict in the Middle East. Investors also will monitor comments from Fed officials about future monetary policy. It will be a light week for economic data. The most significant report will be Retail Sales on Tuesday. Since consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, the retail sales data is a key measure of the health of the economy.

04/10/2026

Oil Prices Drop



The biggest movement in mortgage markets this week took place after the announcement of a temporary ceasefire in the conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices fell, and mortgage rates followed suit. Two major inflation reports were close to expectations and caused little reaction. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week a bit lower.


News of a two-week ceasefire caused oil prices to decline sharply on Wednesday. This reduced future inflationary pressures, which was positive for mortgage rates. Concerns about the durability of the ceasefire increased later in the week, however, reducing the initial impact of the announcement.




The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most closely watched inflation indicators released each month, and investors were braced for the effects of the huge rise in oil prices in March. CPI surged a massive 0.9% from February, the largest monthly increase since June 2022, but matching expectations. CPI was 3.3% higher than a year ago, up substantially from an annual rate of 2.4% last month and the highest level
since May 2024.









To reduce short-term volatility and get a better sense of the underlying inflation trend, investors look at core CPI, which excludes food and energy. In March, Core CPI was 2.6% higher than a year ago, up from 2.5% last month, but slightly below expectations. Shelter (housing) costs were up 3.0% on an annual basis and continue to be a primary reason why bringing down inflation remains challenging, but this reading has been trending lower in recent months.






Fed officials keep a close eye on inflation, and the PCE price index is their favored indicator. One of the significant differences with CPI is that PCE places more weight on health care costs and less on shelter. Delayed by the government shutdown, the latest report revealed that Core PCE in February was 3.0% higher than a year ago, down from an annual rate of increase of 3.1% in January and matching the consensus
forecast. Progress toward the 2.0% target of the Fed has not been easy, and this desired level has not been achieved since February 2021.




Looking ahead, attention will remain fixed on the conflict in the Middle East. Investors also will monitor comments from Fed officials about future monetary policy. For economic data, Existing Home Sales will come out on Monday. The Producer Price Index (PPI), a monthly inflation indicator, will be released on Tuesday. Import Prices will come out on Wednesday.

04/03/2026

There's ALWAYS a catch 🏡💸💵💸