11/02/2026
☕📚 Saturday morning thoughts…
Sitting here studying cognitive biases and how they influence our financial decisions, I came across representativeness bias, and it immediately reminded me of the roulette table at a casino.
You know that screen showing the history of red and black? We naturally look for patterns. If black has hit six times in a row, we might assume red is due—or that black is on a winning streak.
But here’s the thing: The roulette wheel has no memory. Each spin is independent, and previous results don’t change the odds of the next one.
We often approach the stock market with similar thinking. We see an investment performing well and assume it will continue, or one that’s declined and assume it’s bound to rebound.
Of course, the stock market isn’t roulette. Fundamentals, economic conditions, and trends matter. But past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
The takeaway? Our brains are wired to find patterns, even when those patterns don’t reliably predict what’s next.
Sometimes understanding how our minds work is just as important as understanding how money works.
Just a little Saturday morning food for thought! ☕️
