08/23/2026
Bitcoin just gained roughly 23% in one week and broke through a major resistance zone.
So, what are the chances it keeps going? I'm not a chart expert but after a long conversation with AI....
Right now, I’d estimate:
• 60–65% chance the broader move continues higher over the next several weeks
• 35–40% chance this becomes a failed breakout
That doesn’t mean Bitcoin goes straight up from here. After such a large move, BTC is stretched and facing major resistance around $79,500–$80,000.
The healthiest—and probably most likely—scenario would be:
1. BTC struggles around $80K
2. It consolidates or pulls back toward $73K–$70K
3. Buyers defend that area
4. BTC makes another attempt at $80K
A pullback would not automatically be bearish. The level that matters most is $69,000.
• Holds $69K: Bull-market confirmation
• Closes above $80K and holds $77K–$78K: Bullish odds improve considerably
• Weekly close below $69K: Breakout becomes questionable
• Weekly close below $64K: Rally likely failed
• Below $58.5K–$60K: Broader bullish structure breaks down
This rally also appears to include genuine buying—not only short liquidations. Spot Bitcoin ETFs reportedly received approximately $1.6 billion in net inflows from Monday through Thursday, and BTC reclaimed its 200-day moving average.
My honest read: This rally is more likely real than fake, but Bitcoin is too extended to expect it to keep moving straight upward.
The reaction at $80,000—and the first meaningful pullback—will tell us much more.
$69,000 is the bull-market confirmation test.
$64,000 is the rally-failure line.
Regardless, I'm still DCA'ing into with a few high other blue chip alt coins.