BlackSummit Financial Group

08/02/2022

How is narrative interwoven into the fabric of company valuation?

Read more in our commentary below.

https://blacksummitfg.com/buying-the-narrative/

07/29/2022

What are the root causes of today's global food crisis and what are solutions?

Find out more in our commentary below.

As the world struggles with the looming prospect of a widespread economic slowdown, we begin our look at the Day After with an analysis of how the EU is preparing itself for a recession. From there, we look at the dynamics of the food shortage shaping politics in the developing world, before moving....

07/22/2022

How has the Russian war sparked global fuel and food inflation? Why won't many nations in the Global South speak up against the Russian war effort?

Find out more in our commentary below.

The Global South has long been a battleground for global power competition. While US economic and political influence in the Global South has waned in recent years, Russia and China have stepped up their investments in the region and it’s paying off. The first article featured this week looks at h...

07/19/2022

Will demand match excess inventory in the months to come?

Read more in the commentary below.

Investors are getting a front-row seat to Supply Chain 101 during and in the aftermath of the global pandemic. Interconnectedness seems to always be unveiled amid crisis, whether that is financial contagion such as the Asian Financial Crisis or global operations, as is the case currently. The front....

06/14/2022

How higher inflation and the failure to reject the hypothesis of a soft landing are now threatening growth, sentiment, and earnings.

Read more in our commentary below.

First a quick reminder about statistical errors: Type I error implies the rejection of a hypothesis that is true. Example: Nowadays, Google is a cheap stock. If the hypothesis is true and we reject it, then the loss is the opportunity to profit from a cheap valuation, however, no capital is jeopardi...

06/10/2022

The "bad guys" of the international environment.

What are the implications of a blockade on Ukraine's major port Odessa?

Read more on these topics in our commentary below.

For this week’s geopolitical look, we take a look at the “bad guys” of the international stage. We begin with an analysis of the de facto blockade of Odessa and other Ukrainian ports, stifling the flow of vital commodities out of the resource-rich country. We also examine in our second article...

06/07/2022

Today's macro-environment resembles that of 1914; what is next to come?

Read more in our commentary below.

With little doubt, we are at a historical inflection point from a geopolitical and geoeconomic perspective. The influence of Russia is shrinking (especially in the energy sector), Erdogan in Turkey plays a uniquely ambiguous game, the EU is still searching for a leader, the Middle East may be shaken...

06/03/2022

How less refinery investment hints at higher sustained diesel and gas prices over time?

Will the crash of TeraUSD introduce more rules and regulations in the cryptocurrency space?

Read more in our commentary below.

Introduction: As the world continues to grapple with an ongoing series of local and global crises, destabilization has become a recurring theme. One of the first casualties of the Covid pandemic was energy, and that industry’s difficulties have only been exacerbated by geopolitical conflict and cl...

05/31/2022

Does the United States have enough population to sustain current home prices over the next decade?

Find out in our commentary below.

The Wooden Nickel is a collection of roughly a handful of recent topics that have caught our attention. Here, you’ll find current, open-ended thoughts. We wish to use this piece as a way to think out loud in public rather than make formal proclamations or projections. 1. A Narrative Is Not a Thesi...

05/19/2022

How debt accumulation and balance of power dynamics differentiate today's inflationary environment from the 1970s. What are the root causes of recent market turmoil?

https://lnkd.in/gHGND2bj

05/12/2022

What alternatives does Europe have if Russia were to cut off its gas exports?

Find out in our commentary below.

Introduction: For this week’s look at the Day After, our articles are divided into two topics. The first topic, explored in our first article, is a global economic slowdown in which inflation and the pandemic’s aftereffects have worn on economic growth, risking stagflation. Our second article zo...

05/11/2022

Are you up to date with all of the latest headlines across the world?

Read more in our commentary below.

At the Intersection of Geopolitics and Geoeconomics May 11, 2022 | Volume 5, Issue 5| Rachel Poole Here is a summary of the most important events that unfolded over the last month, and which may affect economic, financial and geopolitical issues in the months ahead: North America The US is doubling....