The Bahnsen Group

09/04/2026

There’s no shortage of debate about AI: which companies will win, how quickly adoption will grow, what happens to jobs, or whether data centers are being built too aggressively.

But we may be overlooking a more fundamental question:

Will the profits ultimately justify all of the money being spent on AI?

And just as importantly, will companies continue to have access to the capital needed to fund that spending on favorable terms while investors wait for those profits to arrive?

https://bahnsen.co/4cwfN4R

08/31/2026

Chairman Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech didn’t create a dramatic market reaction—but that doesn’t mean it was uneventful.

His message placed a clear emphasis on inflation and price stability, while describing the labor market as healthy.

That combination was enough to materially increase market expectations for a potential September rate hike.

Before the speech, futures markets were pricing in less than a 40% chance of a hike.

Afterward, that moved to roughly 60%.

Significant? Yes.

Certain? Not even close.

David Bahnsen breaks down the major takeaways from Jackson Hole and what they could mean for the Fed’s next move in today’s Monday Dividend Cafe.

https://bahnsen.co/3T1qoy5

08/29/2026

Before buying an insurance policy, there's a simple question that could tell you a lot:

How is the person recommending it getting paid?

This week's Thoughts on Money looks behind the scenes of the insurance industry to explain how different sales and compensation models can influence the products consumers are presented with.

Insurance can be an important financial-planning tool. But understanding the incentives behind a recommendation can help you become a more informed consumer.

Learn how insurance agents are paid, how commissions, captive models, and broker incentives can influence the financial advice you receive.

08/28/2026

Why take a taxable dividend today when an unrealized gain can continue compounding without being taxed?

David Bahnsen argues there is another side to that equation.

As unrealized gains grow, so can the tax consequences of making a change.

Over time, those consequences can affect rebalancing, security selection and the willingness to move capital where it may be better allocated.

That is why David considers paying taxes on dividends along the way a feature rather than a bug of dividend growth investing.

https://bahnsen.co/4ybYyy8

08/25/2026

Gold has been a store of value for thousands of years. But is it actually a good long-term investment?

This week's Thoughts on Money explores some of the strongest arguments for owning gold—from inflation and currency concerns to diversification and crisis protection—and weighs them against an important limitation: gold doesn't generate profits, interest, or cash flow that can compound over time.

So where, if anywhere, does gold belong in an investment portfolio?

Is gold a good investment? Explore its role as an inflation hedge, portfolio diversifier, and store of value versus cash-flowing assets.

08/24/2026

The Treasury Department is buying long-term government bonds in an effort to influence long-term interest rates.

But can it actually work?

David Bahnsen walks through Secretary Bessent’s latest move, what happened to the 30-year Treasury yield after the announcement, and why he is skeptical that policymakers can sustainably impose a price on money that differs from what economic fundamentals ultimately support.

And there may be more behind the recent movement in long-term yields than the explanations dominating the headlines.

Today’s special Monday Dividend Cafe breaks down what investors should understand.

Dear Valued Clients and Friends – Today’s Monday Dividend Cafe does the normal around-the-horn, but there is primarily a [needed] focus on Secretary Bessent’s announcement about Treasury interventions into the bond market. Dividend Cafe on Friday covered Part 1 of a two-part series on dividend...

08/21/2026

Where should investors look for a reliable source of return?

Growth can be exciting. Market psychology can move prices. But neither necessarily provides the foundation investors may think they do.

In this Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen explores a different approach: focusing on the profitability a company generates and how investors can participate in that profit.

It’s a simple distinction—but an important one.

https://bahnsen.co/4cBAyMl

08/17/2026

Markets started the week lower, but the bigger stories may be developing beneath the daily index moves.

Today’s Dividend Cafe looks at the massive investment taking place around AI, why the cost of capital and funding could become increasingly important, what the latest economic data is telling us, and what investors should be watching from the Federal Reserve.

Add in developments in energy and interest rates, and there’s plenty to unpack.

A look at the stock market, AI-driven growth, Federal Reserve policy, retail sales, and public policy shaping the economic outlook.

08/15/2026

Could owning a second home in New York City soon become significantly more expensive?

The proposed pied-à-terre tax would apply differently depending on the type of property, with condos and co-ops potentially entering the taxable pool at much lower assessed values than one-, two-, and three-family homes.

This week’s Thoughts on Money unpacks what property owners should understand—and why this may be part of a much larger trend in how cities think about property taxation.

Explore NYC’s pied-à-terre tax, who may be affected, surcharge rates, exemptions, legal challenges, and financial planning considerations.