Vartanyan Wealth Management

09/07/2026

Today we recognize the American labor movement and the daily contributions of workers for the strength, prosperity, and well-being of our country. Happy Labor Day!

09/02/2026

We had a great summer with the girls, and now it’s back to school today.

Feeling grateful for the summer memories made. Here’s to a great school year ahead!

08/10/2026

The second half of 2026 opened with plenty of noise—geopolitical tension in the Middle East, higher oil prices, and questions about whether the massive wave of AI spending will deliver the returns markets are hoping for. Yet the S&P 500 still sits near all-time highs. We think the path higher remains open, supported by a resilient economy and solid corporate fundamentals.

AI: From Promise to Proof

AI investment continues to dominate the market conversation. After the latest round of big tech earnings, the market’s focus has clearly shifted. It’s no longer enough to simply announce big spending plans. Investors now want to see results. Companies that showed strong revenue growth, healthy cash flow, and clear signs of monetizing AI were rewarded. Those that reported rising spending without much evidence of returns faced tougher scrutiny. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta remain at the center of this story—and the jury is still out on how quickly their enormous investments in data centers, chips, and AI platforms will pay off. We believe the broader AI thesis remains intact. Business investment tied to AI is still supporting economic growth, productivity gains, and corporate profits across a widening range of industries. Expect some volatility as markets continue to debate the return on these investments, but we see AI as a powerful earnings tailwind for both technology leaders and the companies adopting the technology.

Earnings Are Doing the Heavy Lifting

Corporate profits remain a bright spot. S&P 500 companies are on track to grow earnings nearly 30% year-over-year in the second quarter (excluding the impact of private company markups related to Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX). Strength has also spread beyond the biggest technology names—earnings growth excluding the “Magnificent Seven” is tracking toward 20%. Importantly, recent stock market gains have been driven more by rising earnings than by expanding valuations. In our view, that is a healthier foundation for further progress.

Inflation and the Middle East

The inflation picture is still mixed. Ongoing conflict involving Iran and solid economic growth have kept upward pressure on longer-term interest rates, leaving the Federal Reserve in a difficult position. Encouragingly, renewed hopes for productive talks around the Strait of Hormuz—combined with softer Chinese demand for oil—have helped keep West Texas Intermediate crude near a more tolerable $80 per barrel.

Looking Ahead

Taken together, we see a constructive backdrop for equities: resilient economic growth, improving prospects for restored shipping traffic in the Persian Gulf, strong corporate earnings, and ongoing AI-driven innovation. That said, volatility tied to geopolitics and questions around AI investment returns is likely to remain with us. In that environment, diversification continues to matter.

07/24/2026

Frankie and Georgia had incredible soccer seasons and we couldn't be prouder of both of them!

07/04/2026

We are grateful to live in the land of the free and the home of the brave. Happy Fourth of July!

07/02/2026

Get your grills and beach chairs ready America because July 4th — and America’s 250th birthday — is fast approaching. As the weather heated up last month, the stock market cooled a bit, and investors took profits on some of their technology winners. Market watchers blamed a variety of factors for the decline, but a 12-week rally in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index of 92.5% pointed to an AI trade that went too far too fast. Gains in healthcare, industrials, and financial services stocks helped offset declines in the big tech stocks and limited the magnitude of the decline.

Stock market volatility has increased in recent weeks amid the push-and-pull between AI-driven optimism and concerns about high valuations. While major indexes have pulled back some, particularly large cap technology names, broader market participation has helped limit downside and maintain a constructive backdrop. The revitalized market for initial public offerings (IPOs), highlighted by the recent SpaceX IPO, offered a sign of healthy market conditions. Overall, equities remain supported by AI-driven earnings strength and improving breadth, but near-term gains may be tempered as markets consolidate earlier advances and navigate ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Meanwhile, the bond market has shown signs of stabilization. Earlier in June, rising Treasury yields reflected stronger economic data, bubbling inflation concerns, and rate hike fears. More recently, however, falling oil prices and evolving central bank expectations have helped ease pressure on yields, supporting bond market performance.

The economic backdrop remained resilient in June, supported by AI infrastructure investment, productivity gains, and lower oil prices. Inflation remains in focus, with policymakers balancing persistent price pressures against improving global supply conditions. Geopolitical developments continue to introduce uncertainty, while AI investment serves as a longer-term growth driver. This combination suggests an economy that is neither overheating nor contracting — but one that continues to expand at a moderate pace.

These economic and financial market crosscurrents reinforce the importance of staying disciplined and diversified in a volatile, policy-sensitive environment. While stocks may still need to digest earlier gains in the near term, bonds are regaining diversification value, and the economy remains on stable footing. In the second half, several key themes will shape the investment landscape, including the AI buildout, the leadership change at the Federal Reserve, and midterm elections.

As always, please reach out to me with questions. Thank you for your continued trust.

Adam Vartanyan, CFP®

06/26/2026

Often if you speak to Liz, she's not at home in Nashville. Here are a few places she's been in 2026. Next time you talk to her, ask for future travel recommendations in addition to any needs you may have!

06/21/2026

Happy Father's Day to all the fathers and father figures. Your impact is invaluable, and your sacrifices are immeasurable.

05/10/2026

Happy Mother’s Day, Grancy! We love you very much!

05/10/2026