Vartanyan Wealth Management

04/23/2026

Today is World Book Day. One of Liz's favorite ways to unwind is to pick up a book. Her favorite read this year has been The Count of Monte Cristo. We'd love to hear your favorite reads!

04/09/2026

If you're like Adam and enjoy golf, this weekend is one of the best of the year!

Since 1934, amidst blooming azaleas, towering pines and flowering dogwoods, the first full week of April ushers in a stage unique to golf and to sport.

04/07/2026

April Letter from Adam -

As the Iran conflict moves into its second month, the headlines can feel heavy. But if history is any guide, markets have repeatedly shown remarkable resilience in the face of geopolitical uncertainty—and often emerge even stronger on the other side.

Looking back for perspective, two past conflicts stand out with very different backdrops:

In 1990, at the outset of the first Gulf War, the U.S. economy was already slipping into recession, with flat corporate profits, elevated inflation, and shaky consumer confidence. Markets initially struggled under that weight. Yet even then, stocks began recovering well before the fighting ended, quietly anticipating better times ahead.

By contrast, in 2003 when the Iraq War began, the economy had already healed from the dot-com bust. Corporate earnings were rebounding, policy support was in place, and valuations were attractive. Markets responded with optimism, launching a powerful five-year bull market that ran until 2007.

Today, we see threads of both periods—but the long-term outlook feels far more constructive. Importantly, we don’t see the current situation meaningfully impairing America’s economic foundation or corporate earnings power. A successful outcome that eliminates the Iranian regime would remove a dangerous, decades-long geopolitical risk, ultimately leading to a safer world, greater regional stability, and a more confident global market environment. In that light, today’s environment reminds us more of the resilient 2003 backdrop than the fragile one in 1990.

Of course, decisive military action against the regime comes with real challenges and a human cost. Yet these necessary steps to neutralize a long-standing threat—particularly Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz and its history of regional destabilization—are laying the groundwork for lasting peace and security. We believe this difficult but essential process will ultimately prove worthwhile.

Still, history reminds us that markets have a habit of looking past the fog of conflict and rewarding patience. We caught a glimpse of that potential with the strong gains on the last day of March, and we believe more clarity could bring even greater opportunity.

While the exact timing of resolution is uncertain, the underlying strength of the U.S. economy and the earnings power of American companies remain solidly intact. Once military objectives are achieved and commerce flows freely again through the Strait, we expect this period of volatility to give way to attractive buying opportunities.

For now, we continue to advise keeping your portfolio risk balanced at long-term targets and staying well diversified. For long-term investors, moments like these often plant the seeds for future growth.

We remain optimistic about the road ahead and are here to help you navigate it with confidence.

04/05/2026

04/01/2026

Tax Day is around the corner. Not only is April 15th the deadline for individual tax returns to be filed, it is the last day to complete a prior year IRA contribution. Please don't hesitate to reach out to Adam or Liz with any tax-related questions or needs.

03/25/2026

March is National Credit Month. It's a great time to check in on your credit and make sure it is safeguarded as well. Learn more about freezing your credit to ensure you are protected from fraud.

03/17/2026

Have you ever wondered why we wear green today? Take a minute to read this short article about St. Patrick's Day history

Wearing green is an homage to leprechauns and Irish defiance.

03/07/2026

It is Liz's favorite day of the year - daylight savings time is a marker that spring is near and the thought of long summer days is not far off. Don't forget to set your clocks forward tonight!

02/06/2026

The Super Bowl is two days away. Here's a quick, easy recipe that's sure to please the crowd!

02/04/2026

Other than the historic volatility in gold and silver prices, the biggest news for markets in January may have been the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair. We anticipate a Warsh-led Fed will be able to steer the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) toward two rate cuts later this year, with help from easing inflation pressure. Remember, the Chair just gets one vote on the 12-member FOMC, so the health of the labor market and the path of inflation will be critical.

Warsh’s track record of flexibility on interest rate policy, his credibility with Fed officials, and prior advocacy for central bank independence should help ease concerns about the President’s influence. However, his preference for a smaller Fed balance sheet, now over $6.6 trillion, and his emphasis on fiscal responsibility could complicate the Treasury’s efforts to refinance government debt at lower rates. This dynamic will be important to watch because the U.S. government’s fiscal situation is not on a sustainable path.

One of the reasons Warsh is likely to push for lower rates, despite still-elevated inflation, is productivity gains from AI can help the economy grow faster with less inflation. Recent data shows U.S. nonfarm business productivity rose 4.9% in the third quarter of 2025, strong enough to counter inflationary pressures even amid solid economic growth. Technology and more efficient processes enable firms to produce more with fewer hours worked, a key reason economic growth will likely help push stocks higher.

AI investment is also helping drive a strong fourth quarter earnings season. S&P 500 companies are on track to deliver a fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. While this is driven mostly by the tech sector’s 30% earnings increase, keep in mind industrials are tracking toward 25% earnings growth. Several leading companies have cited tangible benefits of AI during earnings season, including Bank of America, Meta, and Costco.
Strong earnings can help solidify the floor under stock prices, while cooling inflation and stable interest rates can help raise the ceiling by supporting higher valuations.

Looking ahead, the backdrop for stocks remains favorable. Massive AI investment is driving gains in productivity and earnings. Consumers will get tax refunds associated with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act starting this month. Positive stock market performance in January often bodes well for annual returns, though past performance does not guarantee future results. And increased participation in this bull market is encouraging — the average stock has outperformed the S&P 500 Index over the past three months*.

AI scrutiny, deficit spending, and geopolitics remain key risks. New Fed Chairs are often tested by markets, and midterm election years tend to be more volatile. Don’t let any volatility that may come along shake your confidence. It will not shake mine. I believe volatility creates opportunity. Stay invested and diversified.

As always, please reach out to me with questions. -Adam