Brian Szytel at The Bahnsen Group

12/20/2024

A market sell-off that began on Dec. 5 (two weeks ago) accelerated this week, and today’s Dividend Cafe is going to be almost entirely devoted to it.

David also covers other issues adjacent to this, but the general gist of things today is all about the week that just was.

Yes, the drama playing out in Washington right now is thoroughly discussed, but its role in the current market distress is presented outside of conventional understanding.

A market sell-off that began two weeks ago accelerated this week, and today's Dividend Cafe is going to be almost entirely devoted to it.

12/16/2024

Let's talk about the Dow being down for the 8th day in a row and being off 1,300 points since hitting 45,000 on Dec. 4.

In addition, let's navigate through crucial topics such as the recent market selloff, potential tax changes, and regulatory updates.

The Dow fell for the eighth day in a row today and is now off 1,300 points since hitting 45,000 on Dec. 4.

12/13/2024

In today's Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen delves into the current spike in market optimism, small business confidence, and the impact of regulatory changes.

Plus, find out what potential economic outcomes might happen, based off of current conditions, and how market history might guide 2025 predictions.

This week talks a lot about "business optimism". There are plenty of things to unpack. It is a deep and wide Dividend Cafe.

12/10/2024

When you see something like this chart below, or a VIX below historical levels, or a P/E above historical levels, or a put-call ratio well below historical levels, or credit spreads below historical levels, does it give one pause about the state of market pricing?

It is possible to imagine, yes.

But what does that mean?

What is one supposed to do about it?

https://bahnsen.co/3ZLhHbS

12/06/2024

It was another big week of appointment announcements with in the upcoming Trump Administration.

These appointments range across various economic positions, and a lot of material is front and center right now when it comes to tax, trade, tariffs, and energy.

Join us as David breaks down what all this means for you, the investor...

Another big week of economic appointment announcements. A lot of material is front and center regarding tax, trade, tariffs, and energy.

12/03/2024

The year-over-year inflation rate has reverted back to the ~2% range the Fed has targeted, and probably lower than that if the shelter figure were properly weighted or properly calculated.

However, the aggregate price change since the beginning of 2020 is still 22% higher (i.e. +30% cereal, +32% electricity, +52% car insurance).

https://bahnsen.co/3D7bZIb

11/27/2024

For those who have one fork into the turkey or one foot headed to the couch, as is our annual tradition around here, this is not a normal Dividend Cafe.

When it comes to The Bahnsen Group and the multiple elements that make us the business that we are, we feel these annual reflections are a heartfelt summary of how we feel about so many things within the company.

Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours, and jump on in to a gratitude-filled Dividend Cafe!

My contentment is overflowing because God is good. These annual reflections are a heartfelt summary of how I feel about so many things.

11/26/2024

A turkey is up 102% in price since 1986, but it used to cost a blue-collar worker 3.2 hours to earn the money to buy one, and now it is 1.9 hours, a decline of over 40%.

Something positive to look at amongst the craziness of the past couple of weeks.

https://bahnsen.co/3CMcLKM

11/22/2024

Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe, where a little passive index opportunity talk (different than you think), market momentum, bond spreads, generation Z, and yes, post-election chatter await you...

A little passive index talk, market momentum, bond spreads, Gen Z, and yes, post-election chatter await you in the Dividend Cafe.

11/19/2024

To go much further out, the current market projection for the fed funds rate will be a year from now (at the end of 2025, it is somewhere between 3.25% and 4.25%, with the belly of the bet being around 75-100bps less than it is now).

This is one full percentage point higher than the lowest expectations the futures market had a few months back.

https://bahnsen.co/4hTdRV2

11/16/2024

This week’s Dividend Cafe is a useful tool for investors interested in a realistic, non-partisan, objective, but still opinionated look at the lay of the land as we prepare for a second Trump administration.

In a week's time, there were appointments and nominations that thrilled us and others that just left many dumbfounded (not in a good way).

There really is a lot to say about pending personnel, pending policy, and what makes sense in terms of expectations for priorities and activities next year.

Today, we covered those the bases, and we are extremely happy with the effort of this analysis from David.

This Dividend Cafe is useful for investors interested in objective but still opinionated analysis preparing for a 2nd Trump administration.

11/11/2024

Beyond the move higher in treasury yields and the massive higher in stock prices, it behooves us to focus on ever-tightening credit spreads.

Since the election, average high-yield bond spreads got as low as 274 basis points, down from 288 before the election and 325 throughout the summer.

We are not back to the summer 2007 level of 250, but we are close.

Forgive me for believing two things at once here:

(a) This indicates a very high confidence in credit, risk, and economic conditions right now, and (b) The contrarian in me does not like this one bit.

So we again have one of those days, where they had banking activity and bond markets closed, but the stock market opened.