04/06/2021
The Market in The Time of Coronavirus
Blog/ 04/06/21
The issues in the market have not changed but how we view the future potential is up for grabs.
I have always learned that the market is alarmed by interest rates rising caused by inflation. If commodity prices have been rising why is this not the case? Economic activity is a double-edged sword with interest rates. If the economy is about to open to a post Covid environment is that a good scenario for stocks?
Well, interest rates moving up or the smell of interest rates moving up can spook the market and yet we are having a set of new highs every week.
Lately we have witnessed the scenario that emerging Asian markets are undervalued versus the US. Since November markets in the ex-China Asian market have had a run and China has had some interesting moves before that. Alibaba has been stifled by the threat of regulatory interference by the Chinese government which is thwarting its move up. And now the tech market has been under pressure by profit taking and exogenous market issues. Yet China exports are surging, and we are back to realizing how overvalued our tech stocks are in comparison. To update, emerging markets have under pressure because the dollar has reversed direction and dampened the prospects in those markets.
Well, have no fear because the stimulus payments and the new profitability of banks with higher rates has helped surge financial stocks everywhere in the world! Wait, aren’t high interest rates the kiss of death for the markets?
Then there is the price of oil. I am no expert on the oil market, but I do think it looks like EV may be a pipe dream if the economics for shale oil boosts the profitability for the biggest oil producer. Oh, that is the US!
Opec just allowed an increase in production as an exception for Russia, not good for prices.
So, where should we deploy our surging savings and stimulus capital? I think the best thing to do is to buy those stocks that are surging with unused capital, stock buy backs and what about the travel, airlines and hotels and gyms? Wait! are the vaccines really going to create a safe environment or like some countries do we return to lock down and people staying home trading with advice from Reddit?
I have never seen so many potential opportunities and unanswered questions in my 40+ years of managing assets for clients and myself too!
STAY TUNED!
Full disclosure I own some Alibaba.