01/15/2021
Two factors that have contributed to the “bitcoin bubble” are:
- the start of institutional acceptance
- ease of access through Cashapp, Paypal and Robinhood.
So in its current state of infancy, Phase 1, as a widely recognized and trusted asset bitcoin is acting like a high beta stock rather than a currency. But with initial institutional acceptance and wide availability, Phase 1 is completed.
Phase 2 will involve wider acceptance of bitcoin for settlement of goods and services. This will increase bitcoin demand logarithmically. The trend will be driven by sensitivity to a declining dollar and ease of settlement. Try to transfer money by Fed wire vs bitcoin and you’ll get the point quickly.
To really understand the significance of this, the size of the bitcoin market (currently a 1T) and the stock to flow need to be analyzed vs demand. Consider a hypothetical, as businesses start to demand settlement in bitcoin, what happens when $10T of trade is done in a currency with a current market of 1T. Model that and the “wild estimates” in the hundreds of thousands start to seem rational.
What were seeing in the “bitcoin bubble” is the adoption of a new monetary system. And it’s the tip of the iceberg.
Institutional buying that started when Bitcoin’s price was as low as $19000 has continued well into the $40000 level. Institutions like