Yardeni Research

08/28/2026

The Bond Vigilantes are driving up Treasury yields while the Trump administration fights to keep them down. The tug of war continues over inflation fears, massive borrowing needs, and an uncertain Fed path.

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The Bond Vigilantes have driven up Treasury bond yields recently, t...

08/28/2026

Nvidia just forecast 70% revenue growth while saying it would be even stronger without supply constraints. The company can't make chips fast enough to meet demand.

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Nvidia's Q2 earnings report suggests that the AI spending boom is broadening. The company forecast 70% revenue growth next fiscal year, far above Wall Street's 45% expectation, and said growth would be even stronger if supply constraints were less severe. Significantly, non-hyperscaler revenue grew....

08/27/2026

Treasury Secretary Bessent is deploying a strategic toolbox to stabilize long-term bond yields, including increased buybacks and TGA drawdowns. Call it the Bessent Put.

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I. Bessent Put For Bonds Over the past few weeks, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took three actions to deter the Bond Vigilantes by showing them the Treasury's ample toolbox for stabilizing bond yields. First, the Treasury joined Japan in supporting the yen, reducing the risk that Tokyo would need

08/26/2026

The stock market just posted 50% earnings growth outside a recession. Breadth is near cyclical highs and analysts keep raising 2027 estimates to new records.

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The answers are: Yes, Maybe, No, and No. We have nothing to fear but nothing to fear. The stock market likes to climb a wall of worry. So too much optimism tends to be bearish, while too much pessimism tends to be bullish. Fortunately, there is plenty to fear these

08/25/2026

America's top bond salesman is now buying his own product. The Treasury is using its checking account to purchase long-term bonds while issuing more short-term bills.

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Because of the recent commotion in the bond market, Dr. Ed has received many inquiries about the “Bond Vigilantes,” a term he coined in 1983. In response, please see his Bond Vigilantes Primer, which includes a few of his most pertinent excerpts on the topic over the years. I. The

08/25/2026

Ed Yardeni tells CNBC the 10-year bond yield is simply back to normal. He also weighs in on Treasury doubling bond buybacks and using its General Account to fund purchases.

08/24/2026

China's factories are producing far more than its consumers are buying, yet its trade surplus just hit a record $1 trillion. The gap keeps widening.

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The Go Global trade continues to work; August has not interrupted it. Asia's AI-linked stock markets are back in the performance-derby lead after July's shakeout, and the other emerging markets that led this year are leading again. Last week's action was in bonds. Treasury Secretary

08/23/2026

Moderna surged 177% in a single day, the largest gain by any S&P 500 stock this century. The next day it dropped 22%.

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Health Care (OW) led the S&P 500 sectors this week, rising 4.3%. Energy (OW) was next at 2.5% and is up 41.2% ytd, the best of the 11 sectors (chart). Materials (OW) also finished higher, up 2.3%. The other eight sectors fell. Utilities (OW) was

08/23/2026

Markets eye Jackson Hole as Fed Chair Warsh speaks Friday amid contested yield moves. Nvidia earnings Wednesday could test tech's rally as Q2 season wraps.

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Global bond markets stole the spotlight last week. The US 10-year yield closed at 4.74% and the 30-year at 5.27%, up 6bps and 2bps, respectively, for the week (chart). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent surprised the markets on Wednesday by announcing that the US Treasury would double

08/22/2026

The S&P 500 hit record highs this year while getting 10% cheaper. Forward earnings climbed twice as fast as stock prices.

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Stocks are cheaper than they were in January. S&P 500 forward earnings has risen twice as fast as the S&P 500 stock price index so far this year. So the forward P/E has declined as the index rose to record highs. The impetus was FEMO (fabulous earnings