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Yardeni Research Clear analysis and commentary on the economy and market. Posted by Ed Yardeni and his research team.

Labor demand just exceeded supply for four straight months, the longest streak since early 2023. Wage growth for job swi...
09/30/2026

Labor demand just exceeded supply for four straight months, the longest streak since early 2023. Wage growth for job switchers hit 5.0%.

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I. Is Wage Growth Accelerating? Wage growth signals labor market conditions. Just as shortages of goods tend to push prices higher, worker shortages tend to push wages higher. When labor demand outstrips labor supply, employers must compete more aggressively for workers, resulting in faster wage gro...

Bond yields are surging worldwide, but US inflation expectations remain strangely calm. The disconnect is getting harder...
09/29/2026

Bond yields are surging worldwide, but US inflation expectations remain strangely calm. The disconnect is getting harder to ignore.

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I. Revenge of the Bond Vigilantes? We still have a 70% subjective probability for our bullish base-case Roaring 2020s scenario. The remaining 30% covers all the possible bearish scenarios. We monitor those possibilities closely with our Worry List. Our main worry right now is the significant rise in...

Semiconductors trade at a discount to the S&P 500 despite analysts forecasting 113% earnings growth this year and 74% in...
09/28/2026

Semiconductors trade at a discount to the S&P 500 despite analysts forecasting 113% earnings growth this year and 74% in 2027.

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Stocks opened last week with a big rally. The S&P 500 rose 1.5% on Monday, and the Nasdaq closed at a record high as oil prices and bond yields fell. The reprieve didn't last. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.17% by Friday's close,

Big week ahead: September jobs report caps a data-heavy schedule featuring GDP revisions, inflation gauges, and manufact...
09/27/2026

Big week ahead: September jobs report caps a data-heavy schedule featuring GDP revisions, inflation gauges, and manufacturing surveys. Fed speakers will likely address recent bond yield moves.

🟢 Open

The week ahead is jam-packed with labor market data releases, capped off by September's employment report (Fri). August's PCED and the third estimate of Q2 GDP arrive Wednesday, along with BEA's annual revisions, followed by ISM's M-PMI on Thursday. FedSpeak continues, with Richmond Fed

Global stocks hitting record highs while bond yields surge to multi-decade peaks. Earnings momentum is extraordinary wor...
09/26/2026

Global stocks hitting record highs while bond yields surge to multi-decade peaks. Earnings momentum is extraordinary worldwide, not just in the US.

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I. Global Economy The global economy has been surprisingly resilient so far this year. There were dips earlier this year, when the Middle East war was in full swing; but in recent months, global industrial production and exports have rebounded to their record highs from before the war (chart). The

The 10-year Treasury yield spiked above 5% last week, but it wasn't investors reacting to economic data. Bond Vigilante ...
09/26/2026

The 10-year Treasury yield spiked above 5% last week, but it wasn't investors reacting to economic data. Bond Vigilante algorithms are now trading on news headlines faster than humans can think.

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I. Credit Last week's events confirm our "Proceed With Caution" call in September 15's QuickTakes. The main event was the jump in the 10-year US Treasury yield above 5.00% to an intraday high of 5.22% on Friday (chart). At the end of the day, it

The Fed just went from unanimous hold to unanimous hike in three months. What changed their minds on rates, and why are ...
09/25/2026

The Fed just went from unanimous hold to unanimous hike in three months. What changed their minds on rates, and why are more increases likely before year end?

🟢 Open

In a scant three months, FOMC members moved from a unanimous hold t...

Consumer spending keeps growing even as disposable income falls. The saving rate is heading toward zero, then negative b...
09/25/2026

Consumer spending keeps growing even as disposable income falls. The saving rate is heading toward zero, then negative by 2030.

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Consumer spending resilience increasingly has become a balance-sheet story rather than an income-statement story. The personal saving rate has been falling since January 2024 as consumer outlays have outpaced disposable personal income (chart). Many economists believe that this is unsustainable. Not...

Bond yields are rising because the economy is booming. The Fed hiked rates in September and may hike twice more this yea...
09/24/2026

Bond yields are rising because the economy is booming. The Fed hiked rates in September and may hike twice more this year. Yet inflation expectations haven't budged from their 2.0-2.5% range.

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Bond yields have risen for many reasons this year (chart). The war in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine have pushed up crude oil and refined petroleum product prices. Rising interest rates in Japan are forcing hedge funds to unwind their carry trades. They are paying

Seniors earn 43% less per household than middle-aged workers, yet they now control the largest share of aggregate househ...
09/23/2026

Seniors earn 43% less per household than middle-aged workers, yet they now control the largest share of aggregate household income in America.

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I. The Silver Tsunami The “silver tsunami” refers to the large wave of Baby Boomers moving into retirement and the rise in the number of older households. That demographic shift is increasingly reshaping America’s consumer economy, as older households account for a growing share of income and ...

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