Yardeni Research

05/24/2026

Memorial Day week brings light data but high stakes: Q1 GDP and core PCED Thursday could fuel rate hike bets already at 62.5% for December. We think July's in play.

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The US financial markets are closed on Monday for Memorial Day, and the holiday-shortened week is light on economic data releases. On Thursday, the second estimate of Q1-2026 GDP will be reported alongside April's core PCED, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Eight Fed officials speak over the wee...

05/23/2026

Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (May 23, 2026)

Exuberance check: S&P 500 long-term earnings growth expectations surged to 21.9%, a record outside the pandemic era. What's driving the optimism, and can fundamentals support it?

05/23/2026

Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (May 23, 2026)

Nine quantum computing companies just received $2B in federal CHIPS Act investment, sending their stocks surging. The mechanism is notable: the government takes equity, not just issues grants.

05/22/2026

Bond vigilantes are pushing back hard as markets brace for higher rates longer. The paradox: a hawkish Fed chair could actually help by bringing down long-term Treasury yields.

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The financial markets expect interest rates to remain higher for lo...

05/22/2026

The government just took equity stakes in quantum computing companies. S&P 500 earnings growth expectations hit an all-time high. Insiders are buying at triple the normal rate.

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The Department of Commerce signed letters of intent to invest $2 billion in federal incentives under the CHIPS and Science Act across nine quantum computing and hardware companies. Rather than issuing traditional research grants, the Trump administration is taking minority equity stakes in these com...

05/21/2026

The Fed kept its easing bias in April, but the vote was razor-thin. Three members formally dissented, and many others wanted it gone. Meanwhile, bond yields are falling.

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On Monday, we made a few headlines in the financial press with our out-of-consensus prediction that the FOMC would adopt a tightening bias at the June meeting of the Fed's policymaking committee. That would be followed by a 25-bps hike in the federal funds rate (FFR) at the July FOMC

05/20/2026

The 10-year Treasury yield just hit its highest level in months, yet this might be the best time to buy both bonds and stocks.

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The selloff in the US Treasury bond market continued today. The 30-year yield hit a high of 5.19%, its highest level since July 2007. The 10-year yield surged to 4.69%, its highest since January 2025 (chart). Just as unsettling as these levels is how quickly yields have risen

05/19/2026

The bull market started in October 2022, not March 2026. Since then, most sectors posted solid double-digit gains. Tech's triple-digit surge just made everything else look like laggards.

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The current bull market didn't start on March 31, 2026. Yet many commentators have noted that the bull market is at risk because it has been so narrow since then. The bull market actually started on October 12, 2022. Since then, most market segments have delivered solid double-digit gains. The

05/19/2026

Ed Yardeni tells CNBC he's expecting an interest rate hike in July, discussing the implications for stocks, bonds, and the economic outlook.

05/18/2026

The S&P 500 just hit a record high with earnings breadth at historic levels, yet the bull/bear sentiment ratio sits below its long-term average.

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The S&P 500 sold off by 1.2% on Friday after hitting a record high of 7501.24 on Thursday. We are sticking with our 8250 year-end target for the S&P 500 (chart). However, the index might have peaked for a while. That's because bond yields spiked on

05/17/2026

Inflation data shocked markets as April PPI surged 6% year-over-year. Fed rate hike now expected in July as bond yields spike and futures fully reverse the easing path priced just months ago.

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On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.2% from its record high of 7501.24 on Thursday. A run of hot inflation data and a spike in bond yields did the damage on Friday. April headline CPI hit 3.8% y/y, the highest since May 2023, while core