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10/06/2026

This week’s market picture is sending a more mixed message beneath the surface. We break down what changed and why it matters in the latest Weekly Market Trends.

Only time will tell if the correlation between the U.S. Debt Servicing Cost expressed as a percentage of tax revenues an...
10/06/2026

Only time will tell if the correlation between the U.S. Debt Servicing Cost expressed as a percentage of tax revenues and the 10-Year Treasury Note yield will continue. Currently, yields appear to be headed higher. Source: Baird|Strategas 2026.10.5

10/06/2026

Does headline CPI capture what consumers are really experiencing?

Our latest video explores an alternative view of inflation and why it may matter for your financial life.

Watch the video and visit our blog for the complete research.

10/02/2026

What can investor sentiment tell us when it diverges from market performance?

Our latest Sentiment Brief examines the historical relationship between how investors feel and how markets actually perform, providing context for today’s market environment.

Watch the full video and read more on our blog. Link in comments.

09/30/2026

Check out this week’s Weekly Market Trends as we examine broad market strength, two Death Crosses, and what these signals reveal about current market conditions.

borrow short and lend long, generally. A flattening , all things being equal, may squeeze profitability. Source: B...
09/25/2026

borrow short and lend long, generally. A flattening , all things being equal, may squeeze profitability.

Source: Baird|Strategas 2026.09.24

Past Performance does not guarantee future outcomes.

How will we know if the Federal Reserve has gone too far? The credit markets may tell us.The S&P CDX North American High...
09/23/2026

How will we know if the Federal Reserve has gone too far? The credit markets may tell us.

The S&P CDX North American High Yield Index [CDX] tracks credit risk through credit default swaps on a basket of liquid North American high-yield issuers. When spreads widen materially, investors are demanding greater compensation for taking credit risk.

Look at the historical comparison.

In late 2018, High Yield CDX spreads began widening sharply as the Fed approached the end of its tightening campaign. Credit was sending a warning that financial conditions had become increasingly restrictive.

When the Fed began raising rates again in March 2022, credit markets had already started to deteriorate, with High Yield CDX spreads moving substantially wider.

Today presents a different picture. As a new tightening cycle begins, High Yield CDX spreads have not shown comparable deterioration. Credit markets, at least for now, are not signaling the degree of stress evident in 2018 or 2022.

We will be watching.

Monetary policy works with a lag, and credit conditions can provide an important real-time window into whether higher rates are beginning to create financial stress. If High Yield CDX spreads begin breaking materially wider, the message from credit will deserve considerably more attention.

Past performance is neither indicative nor a guarantee of future results.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2026.09.22 Baird | Strategas 2026.09.22

09/23/2026

Looking at past tightening cycles, we observe two important points:

1) The Fed has rarely raised once during a tightening cycle
2) Historically, the only pauses tightening after something breaks [a hedge fund, a financial institution, etc.]



09/22/2026

Check out this week’s Weekly Market Trends as major benchmarks remain in uptrends
while new Golden and Death Crosses highlight changing momentum beneath the surface.

The Fed raised rates. How did forward inflation expectations react?Wednesday's 25-basis-point increase in the federal fu...
09/21/2026

The Fed raised rates. How did forward inflation expectations react?

Wednesday's 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate put the Federal Reserve's inflation focus back at center stage. One of the more useful measures for judging the market's response comes from the 5-year/5-year forward inflation breakeven.

This measure reflects the market's implied average inflation rate for the five-year period beginning five years from now. In other words, it gives us a window into longer-term inflation expectations rather than today's inflation problem.

Despite elevated current inflation and the Fed's renewed tightening, the 5yr/5yr forward breakeven remains around 2.3%. The immediate reaction to Wednesday's decision pushed the measure lower before it partially rebounded.

We would interpret that cautiously but constructively. The bond market does not appear to be pricing a significant loss of confidence in the Fed's ability to contain inflation over the longer run. For now, longer-term expectations remain relatively well anchored.

That does not mean inflation has been defeated, nor does it tell us where interest rates go next. It tells us investors have not materially increased the inflation premium they expect five to ten years from now.

With the Fed tightening while current inflation remains elevated, we will continue watching this measure closely. A sustained move higher would tell a very different story than the one the market is telling today.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. | Baird Strategas 2026.09.18

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