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September has earned its reputation as the most challenging month of the year for stocks. Historical seasonality deserve...
09/03/2026

September has earned its reputation as the most challenging month of the year for stocks. Historical seasonality deserves our attention, but price should ultimately tell us whether seasonal weakness develops into something more meaningful.

For the S&P 500, I’m watching three levels as a road map: the 63-day exponential moving average, the 63-day price low and the 250-day exponential moving average.

These levels provide progressively deeper measures of support. If the S&P 500 maintains them during periods of weakness, the broader uptrend remains intact. A break of one level would shift attention toward the next and tell us something about whether selling pressure has started to affect the underlying trend.

This is how we prefer to use technical analysis at LRG Wealth Advisors. Seasonality identifies a period when markets have historically faced greater difficulty. Price then helps us judge whether that historical tendency actually matters this year.

September may prove challenging, or the market may largely ignore its seasonal history. Rather than predict which outcome occurs, we will watch what the market communicates through price.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2026.09.01
Chart as of 2026.09.01

09/02/2026

Does a powerful Bitcoin rally mean the asset has moved too far, too quickly?

Our latest research examines Bitcoin’s strongest short-term momentum thrusts since 2017 and what historically happened next. We also consider the broader debate surrounding $40 trillion in federal debt, gold, Bitcoin, and the search for stores of value.

Watch the video and read the complete Past Is Prologue research for our analysis.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

09/01/2026

Major equity benchmarks remain in uptrends as September approaches. What are the
latest trend signals telling us?

Does the rise in bond yields signal greater confidence in economic growth—or growing concern about inflation?The compone...
08/31/2026

Does the rise in bond yields signal greater confidence in economic growth—or growing concern about inflation?

The components of the 10-year Treasury yield offer a more measured answer. On August 27, the nominal 10-year Treasury yielded 4.67%. The 10-year real yield stood at 2.34%, while the 10-year breakeven inflation rate measured 2.33%.

With market-based inflation expectations still contained near 2.3%, the increase in nominal yields does not resemble a broad inflation-expectations surge. Higher real yields have carried more of the adjustment.

That evidence tilts the interpretation away from an inflation scare, but it does not allow us to credit growth optimism alone. Real yields can rise as investors price firmer economic activity, higher expected Federal Reserve policy rates, heavier Treasury supply, or a larger term premium for holding longer-dated debt.

For investors, the composition of a yield increase often communicates more than the headline move. Rising yields driven by inflation expectations send a different signal than rising yields driven primarily by real rates—even though both raise borrowing costs and can pressure valuations.

Sources: Federal Reserve Board; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), DGS10, DFII10 and T10YIE, 2026.08.27

September has a reputation for challenging investors. This year, however, the market enters the month with some importan...
08/31/2026

September has a reputation for challenging investors. This year, however, the market enters the month with some important strengths.

For several weeks, our Weekly Market Trends research has highlighted capital rotating among industry groups rather than broadly leaving equities. The latest breadth data reinforce that view: most S&P 500 sectors now have a higher percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving averages than at the June 22 momentum peak.

That broadening participation, combined with a positive market trend, provides a constructive backdrop.

September still warrants respect. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 0.6% September decline, with midterm-election years averaging -0.8%. But when the market entered September in a positive trend, the historical average improved to +0.3%, compared with -3.2% when the trend was negative.

Seasonality identifies a tendency, not a forecast. For now, breadth and trend suggest investors continue rotating capital within the market rather than abandoning equities.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Source: Baird | Strategas 2026.08.28

September Has a Reputation. The Trend May Matter More.September has historically challenged equity investors. Since 1950...
08/28/2026

September Has a Reputation. The Trend May Matter More.

September has historically challenged equity investors. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 0.6% decline during the month.

That average, however, masks a considerable difference depending on the market's trend entering September.

When the S&P 500 entered September in a positive trend, the average return improved to +0.3%. When it entered with a negative trend, the average fell to -3.2%.

There is another wrinkle this year. September during midterm-election years has averaged a 0.8% decline, so the seasonal backdrop still warrants attention.

We would not dismiss September's history. Nor would we allow the calendar alone to dictate our market assessment. The current positive trend provides a counterweight to historically weak seasonality.

As September begins, we will pay more attention to whether the positive trend persists than to the month printed on the calendar.

Seasonality and trend provide analytical context, not predictions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Source: Baird | Strategas 2026.08.28

08/28/2026

Gold and copper respond differently to changes in economic growth, inflation expectations, and investor sentiment. Historically, their relative performance has also provided useful context for Treasury yields.

This short video explains what we're seeing and why the relationship deserves investors' attention.

Visit our blog and YouTube channel for the complete research.

Clients and subscribers received this research earlier this week.

What Happened to the Private Credit Worries?We previously discussed reports of trouble emerging in parts of private cred...
08/27/2026

What Happened to the Private Credit Worries?

We previously discussed reports of trouble emerging in parts of private credit. The important question was whether those problems represented isolated credit events or the beginning of something broader.

The credit market now provides some perspective.

The Strategas BDC Index Option-Adjusted Spread has retreated to approximately 200 basis points. As the chart shows, that remains well below levels associated with several earlier periods of heightened concern.

Credit spreads measure the additional compensation investors demand for assuming credit risk. When investors grow increasingly worried about defaults, liquidity or deteriorating credit conditions, spreads generally widen. When those concerns recede, spreads tend to narrow.

Today, this measure is **not confirming broad stress in private credit**.

Individual borrowers or private-credit managers can still experience problems, and one indicator cannot settle the question. But the broader market signal suggests that the concerns that attracted considerable attention have, at least for now, **dissipated rather than spread through the credit system**.

We will continue to watch the data for evidence that the credit environment is changing.

Source: Bloomberg, Baird | Strategas, 8/20/2026

Credit Markets Look Calm. But Look DeeperTwo measures of corporate credit risk are sending a more nuanced message than e...
08/26/2026

Credit Markets Look Calm. But Look Deeper

Two measures of corporate credit risk are sending a more nuanced message than either chart provides on its own.

The BB/BBB corporate spread is near its recent lows. Investors are demanding relatively little additional compensation to move from the lower end of investment grade into higher-quality below-investment-grade credit. That is generally consistent with relatively calm credit conditions.

But move farther down the credit-quality spectrum and the picture changes.

The spread between Caa and Baa corporate bonds stands at 7.52%, above its 6.39% average since 2004. Investors are demanding considerably more compensation for taking exposure to substantially weaker credits.

So, what do the two charts tell us together?

Credit markets do not appear to be signaling broad-based stress. Instead, investors appear increasingly discriminating about where they take credit risk.

Healthy markets do not require investors to treat every borrower equally. Greater differentiation between stronger and weaker credits may tell us that investors are paying closer attention to underlying credit quality.

No single spread tells the entire story. Looking across the credit-quality spectrum gives us a more complete picture of how markets are pricing risk.

Sources: Baird | Strategas 2026.08.21 and 2026.08.24

08/25/2026

Two Golden Crosses and one Death Cross emerged this week. What do they tell us about
the current market trend environment?

Watch this week's Weekly Market Trends.

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