Hector M. Rivera, Financial Planner

12/29/2023

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It was a busy week for the that left the major indices with solid gains.

The closed at a new record high on Thursday, while the S&P 500 closed above 4,700 at its highest level since January 2022.

surged after the market learned that the voted unanimously to leave the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. This was accompanied by an updated that featured an improved growth outlook for 2023, a lowered inflation outlook for 2023 and 2024, and a median estimate of 3 rate cuts in 2024 versus a previous estimate of two rate cuts.

The market had been pricing in two rate cuts in 2024 ahead of the FOMC meeting, but it is now pricing in six (!) rate cuts for 2024 with the first cut coming in March.

The left its corridor of key policy rates unchanged, as expected, along with the , the and . Notably, however, ECB President Lagarde and officials at other indicated that they are further away from rate cuts after Chair Powell disclosed that the FOMC had began discussing rate cuts.

The 2-yr dropped 28 basis points to 4.46% and the 10-yr note yield plunged 30 basis points to 3.93%. The 10-yr note yield falling below 4.00% acted as added support for this week.

Just about everything came along for the upside ride in the stock market. Only one of the S&P 500 sectors registered a loss -- (-0.1%) -- while the rate-sensitive sector jumped 5.3%.

The latter half of the week featured heavier-than-normal volume at the and due in part to a huge and expiration on Friday. Increased activity was also related to a rebalance of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

· : +2.9% for the week / +41.5% YTD
· S&P 500: +2.5% for the week / +22.9% YTD
· Industrial Average: +2.9% for the week / +12.5% YTD
· S&P 400: +4.3% for the week / +13.0% YTD
· : +5.6% for the week / +12.7% YTD


Read it here: https://www.parkavenuesecurities.com/dovish-fed-induces-market-rally

07/13/2023

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Exit Planning Institute

05/25/2023

05/09/2023

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The closed out the first week of May on an upbeat note, but Friday's positive price action was not enough to recoup this week's losses for most of the major indices.

Overarching themes that drove the price action were growth concerns, ongoing fallout in , worries, and uncertainty about overtightening and forcing a sharper slowdown; however, Friday's trade was dictated by the upbeat response to 's earnings report, the , and a needed rebound in the regional bank stocks.

Bank ( ) was seized by regulators. Subsequently, the facilitated a deal whereby acquired a substantial majority of assets and assumed the deposits and certain liabilities of FRC.

and fell sharply this week, registering losses of 43.3% and 26.8%, respectively, despite outsized gains on Friday due to short-covering activity.

The voted unanimously to raise the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 5.00-5.25%, which was largely expected. The , the , and the all followed the FOMC rate hike by raising their key lending rates by 25 basis points.

Only three of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed with gains this week unsurprisingly led by the sector (+0.6%), benefitting from the move in Apple. The defensive-oriented health care (+0.1%) and utilities (+0.1%) sectors also outperformed. The (-5.8%) saw the biggest decline by a wide margin followed by (-2.7%) and (-2.3%).

In other stock specific news, there was a successful on Thursday with Johnson & Johnson's consumer health spinoff going public.

settled the week with gains in most tenors. The 2-yr note yield fell 15 basis points to 3.91% while the 10-yr note yield was unchanged at 3.45%. The U.S. fell 0.4% to 101.24.

· Composite: +0.7% for the week / +16.9% YTD

· S&P 500: -0.8% for the week / +7.7% YTD

· Industrial Average: -1.2% for the week / +1.6% YTD

· S&P Midcap 400: -1.2% for the week / +1.3% YTD

· : -0.5% for the week / -0.1% YTD