Money Jokers

03/17/2024

Hello bagholders! it’s time to sell, correction starts on Monday, you’ve been warned!

06/07/2023

Why JPSE is a Good Buy Right Now
If you are looking for a diversified and low-cost way to invest in the US small cap equity market, you might want to consider the JPMorgan Diversified Return US Small Cap Equity ETF (JPSE). This exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracks the performance of the Russell 2000 Diversified Factor Index, which selects and weights small cap stocks based on four factors: value, quality, momentum and low volatility.

JPSE has several advantages over other small cap ETFs. First, it offers a balanced exposure to different sectors and industries, avoiding concentration risks and enhancing diversification. As of June 6, 2023, JPSE had 1,487 holdings across 11 sectors, with the largest allocations being in industrials (18.9%), financials (17.8%) and health care (16.2%)1. Second, it employs a multi-factor approach that aims to capture the best performing stocks within each sector, while reducing exposure to stocks with high volatility or low quality. This can help improve risk-adjusted returns and avoid value traps or momentum crashes. Third, it has a low expense ratio of 0.29%, which is below the category average of 0.35%. This means that investors can keep more of their returns and benefit from compounding over time.

JPSE has also delivered a strong performance since its inception in November 2016. As of June 6, 2023, it had an annualized return of 13.5%, beating the Russell 2000 Index (11.9%) and the S&P SmallCap 600 Index (12.4%). It also outperformed its peers such as the iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) and the Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB), which had annualized returns of 12.3% and 12.7%, respectively. Moreover, JPSE had a lower standard deviation (a measure of volatility) than these benchmarks, indicating that it achieved higher returns with less risk.

In summary, JPSE is a good buy right now because it offers a diversified, low-cost and multi-factor exposure to the US small cap equity market, which has historically generated higher returns than large cap stocks over the long term. JPSE has also proven its ability to outperform its competitors and its underlying index, while reducing volatility and enhancing risk-adjusted returns. It’s chart show a good entry point well below it’s mean trend line for the past 5 years and has solid support which has held the toughest tests the market has had to offer. If you are interested in adding JPSE to your portfolio, you can buy it on the NYSE Arca exchange under the symbol JPSE.

05/26/2023

WTF?!?!

Did the world just wake up one day and go AI nuts? This AI stuff is not new. We have only been talking about this sh*t since Terminator 2 and Skynet killing us all. It seems obvious now that we all should have bet the farm on NVDA a few years ago when we were slobbering over its use to mine crypto and its demand to keep fat drunken high middle-aged slobs occupied during the COVID lockdown. Yet somehow, we just all said “meh” sold it down to 120 and went back to our lives and the belief that the next Great Depression was upon us because of the Fed. Lo and behold a year later, OpenAI and ChatGPT and MSFT ignite the world with the idea that AI is going to be the next revolution. While it’s clear that AI is going to be another leap for humanity, it’s not going to happen overnight. We don’t even have all this supply chain nonsense worked out. While I think NVDA will dominate and could end up being a 5 trillion dollar company, it’s not going to be overnight. Don’t go chasing this one. You missed it, for now. They won’t be able to make everything and service it fast enough to make these dips**t analysts happy and they will sell and downgrade. You’ll get another opportunity again. I suggest you go looking at derivative plays that haven’t left orbit yet and accumulate those while you are waiting for another shot at NVDA. It’s sad when MSFT looks like a bargain compared to NVDA, but that is a good start. I also like Oracle, AMD, Broadcom, Alphabet, Amazon, Marvel, Snowflake, Crowdstrike, Palo Alto Networks. Just take a deep breath, we have the debt ceiling, a budget deal, a Fed still raising rates and a curve that is still inverted to deal with. Be smart, be patient.

05/22/2023

Alex chinaski

The Bio Company EVERYONE has Forgotten About!!!!

Hello Jokers, it’s time to start talking about the market again, so pay attention. I don’t think I did any of you dirty with my last pick Boeing (BA). Not bad for an unlicensed bag-holding hack. Well, for my next stab in the dark I am going with Moderna. That’s the company everyone either loved or hated during the pandemic. Well, I don’t care about politics, just making money and I think this company has a good chance of doing so. Its price is sitting at the bottom of a 2-year channel at a solid support line, fairly close to oversold with its RSI in the 30s. The price has appeared to bottom out so I like the entry point.

Why I like the company is simple: mRNA. It’s the future of medicine much like is for eliminating all white-collar jobs so the likes of the Simpson’s Mr. Burns can eliminate all pencil-pushing jobs. Well, Moderna is just looking to eliminate cancer so we can stand in the unemployment line until we are 100. Anyways, how about a bit about the long-term goal of Moderna?

Moderna and Merck are working together to develop a new type of cancer treatment that uses mRNA and Keytruda. mRNA is a molecule that can instruct cells to make proteins. Keytruda is a drug that helps the immune system fight cancer. The new treatment is personalized for each patient based on their tumor mutations. The new treatment has shown promising results in a phase 2b trial of patients with advanced skin cancer. The companies plan to start a bigger phase 3 trial in 2023 and test the treatment in other cancers as well. You’ll have to do your own research on cancer therapy but I think this is exciting.

This probably isn’t a get-rich-quick pick, but I think this is a good company using solid science that will produce big results in 5-10 years. Its current market cap is 51 billion but could easily become a 200 billion dollar company if this therapy pans out. At any rate, do your own homework as I am just a hack like yourselves with zero credentials other than my thirst for money. Disclosure: I bought 35 shares on 5-19-23 at 126.05 a share, so this is probably a low-key stock pump as well, but I at least put my money where my mouth is.

05/21/2023

The Bio Company EVERYONE has Forgotten About!!!!

Hello Jokers, it’s time to start talking about the market again, so pay attention. I don’t think I did any of you dirty with my last pick Boeing (BA). Not bad for an unlicensed bag-holding hack. Well, for my next stab in the dark I am going with Moderna. That’s the company everyone either loved or hated during the pandemic. Well, I don’t care about politics, just making money and I think this company has a good chance of doing so. Its price is sitting at the bottom of a 2-year channel at a solid support line, fairly close to oversold with its RSI in the 30s. The price has appeared to bottom out so I like the entry point.

Why I like the company is simple: mRNA. It’s the future of medicine much like is for eliminating all white-collar jobs so the likes of the Simpson’s Mr. Burns can eliminate all pencil-pushing jobs. Well, Moderna is just looking to eliminate cancer so we can stand in the unemployment line until we are 100. Anyways, how about a bit about the long-term goal of Moderna?

Moderna and Merck are working together to develop a new type of cancer treatment that uses mRNA and Keytruda. mRNA is a molecule that can instruct cells to make proteins. Keytruda is a drug that helps the immune system fight cancer. The new treatment is personalized for each patient based on their tumor mutations. The new treatment has shown promising results in a phase 2b trial of patients with advanced skin cancer. The companies plan to start a bigger phase 3 trial in 2023 and test the treatment in other cancers as well. You’ll have to do your own research on cancer therapy but I think this is exciting.

This probably isn’t a get-rich-quick pick, but I think this is a good company using solid science that will produce big results in 5-10 years. Its current market cap is 51 billion but could easily become a 200 billion dollar company if this therapy pans out. At any rate, do your own homework as I am just a hack like yourselves with zero credentials other than my thirst for money. Disclosure: I bought 35 shares on 5-19-23 at 126.05 a share, so this is probably a low-key stock pump as well, but I at least put my money where my mouth is.

05/05/2023

What if Jerome Powell got real on a FED speech. From the mind of ChatGPT.

Listen up, you motherf*ckers! The economy may have expanded at a measly f*cking pace in the first quarter, but don't you dare think that means sh*t is going well. Yeah, we've had some godd*mn job gains, but that doesn't mean anything when inflation is still soaring like a mothef*cker. And to make matters worse, the banking system might be sound, but tighter credit conditions are gonna put a heavy-ass weight on the economy, hiring, and inflation. We don't know how f*cking bad it's gonna be, but we're f*cking watching it like a hawk.

The Committee wants maximum employment and 2 percent inflation in the god*mn long run, but let's be f*cking real, we're not even close. So we've decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to a brutal 5 to 5-1/4 percent. We're gonna monitor sh*t like crazy and assess what the f*co we need to do next. We might have to tighten s**t up even more to get that god**mn inflation under control, but we'll take into account how much we've already tightened sh*t up, how long it takes for that sh*t to affect the economy, and any other financial bullsh*t that comes our way.

We're also gonna keep reducing our holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities like we already said we would. We're f*cking committed to getting that inflation down to 2 percent.

Basically, we're gonna keep an eye on everything that might f*ck us up, like the god**mn labor market conditions, inflation pressures and expectations, and all that financial and international s**t. If anything starts to look like it's gonna mess with our goals, we'll adjust our f*cking monetary policy accordingly. You got that? Good.

11/07/2022

The Forgotten and Left For Dead

Jokers, I think its time for a timely pick, Boeing Company, ticker: BA. Relatively speaking it is well below its historical value. I think 110 was a generational bottom. BA has a lot of upside, pay no attention to this qtr's earnings. They wrote off a lot of bad news in one fell swoop. 160 appears to be an old line of support and a recent spot of resistance. With the bad news out of the way I don't think there is much keeping this down. There really is nothing to stop it to 250, and if you didn't notice there is a giant ass gap in the 250-310 zone to fill. Once they start rolling planes off the assembly line at a higher rate look out. Obviously that wont happen overnight, which is good, you can accumulate shares as the economy takes a crap in 2023 and given its relative performance to the S&P I think the downside is minimal longterm. Historically it beats the S&P easily. As you can see, BA is at the same 10 year return as the S&P. The 2 have converged on the same percentage return over the last 10 years, even though BA really has been in a stronger uptrend. Let's also consider the fact they are operating as a duopoly in an industry that needs more aircraft. This need is due in part to the pandemic slowing production and also to the issues BA has had with the Max, but that looks to hopefully be nearing an end.

Gen X Joker

11/03/2022

WINTER IS COMING

Well Jokers, what a wild day today was! Chairman Powell came out like Rick Flair and body slammed all the CNBC pivot cheerleaders today. They took the bait from the statement that the Fed would be “conscious” of the cumulative effect of their paste rate increases and translated it to all its faithfuls that “a pause was imminent” and the doves had been released like the Little Birdie from Elon’s newly purchased Twitter cage. Well, WRONG! Powell laid out these media hacks posing as economists with a bone crushing reality pile driver. No pause, no pivot. Just pain. The beatings will continue until moral improves. Once the dust settled the S&P finished down 3%.

So what does that mean for us? Well, if you didn’t invest all of what you had with this most recent delusional head fake, you still have a chance to get in at a lower price. If the trend lines hold, we are head back for another test of 3500. But beware, this being a a mid cycle election that looks like a win for the Republicans, that test could take some time, as historically this likely election outcome almost always results in postive returns 6 months post election. These market circumstances are unique, so nothing is guaranteed. I will tell you this though, since the 1950s, every time inflation has gone north of 4% and unemployment south of 5%, the U.S. economy went into a recession within two years. Don’t believe these idiots that say a soft landing is possible. History says that’s not happening. RECESSION IS COMING. EARNINGS ARE COMPRESSING. MULTIPLES WILL BE LOWERED.

Where is the bottom? I don’t know, but I know it isn’t 3759.69.

Gen X Joker

10/27/2022

Laughable trading this last week, wouldn’t you say jokers? The downtrend is still intact as the S&P failed to close above the 50 day MA of 3868 and I’ll be shocked if stays above 3800 with the laughable earnings of Meta on top of MSFT and GOOG. I am anticipating AMZN to stink up the set of CNBC since they already announced a hiring freeze for the AWS segment. Apple, maybe they stand an outside chance of doing OK but it won’t be enough to save face for the mega cap techs. Energy’s oil slick earnings is the only thing propping up the index and it is starting to show some cracks with Nat gas prices dropping, the unseasonably warm weather in the northern hemisphere and the signs of slowing growth will cause the earnings to drop from here. I am projecting S&P earnings for the year to come in around 210-215. The market seems to want to place a 18 PE on things but I think when all
Is said and done it will be 16ish and a range of 3200-3500. We will see how well this wears at years ends. This being and off cycle election years does give pretty good odds that the rally holds for awhile until reality sets in of a recession next year.

Gen X Joker

10/21/2022

Happy Friday Jokers,

Time for a market check going into the weekend. Big newsflash the downtrend is well intact but the range is starting to tighten. As we can see by the downward triangle, we are again headed below 3600 as we continue the trend of lower highs. Pretty sure we will not see the true lows until sometime 2023. Earnings, although down, have not cratered yet, but with new housing starts down 23% is an excellent indicator of us hitting the skids. Even if fed pauses, that benefits will not be enough to overcome the economic slowdown with the still relatively high prices. We will see some real pain. The earnings targets we have been given by brokers and talking heads on CNBC are complete BULLSH*T. (To be covered in a later post). So Jokers, do your homework, don’t listen to the people with their overly optimistic speak of “this is a bottom” who need your capital and high trade volume to make a living, but above all else keep those diamond hands strong!

Gen X Joker

10/15/2022

Hello Bagholders, it’s times like these we need to take a good hard look at ourselves and evaluate why we do the the things that we do, and as far as our little corner of the world , why do we always find ourselves on the wrong side of the trade equation. So it’s time for some good old fashion self review. You might just be a bagholder if you:

1. Buy a stock and think it can’t go to zero
2. You buy a stock because it has a low forward PE and you don’t research why
3. You double down on your favorite stock after it drops 50% with no positive news
4. You bought your losing stock on a tip from a neighbor who knows a guy that knows a guy and won’t sell because you are sure they are smarter than you, so the tip has to come true
5. You trade on faith and hope
6. You trade solely on Fibonacci sequences
7. You saw a podcast and some fat slob in his boxers said to buy pot stocks and you did
8. Your favorite program is Mad Money and you follow Jim Cramers every trade
9. You are a current or past Motley Fool subscriber and believe top line revenue is the only factor that matters
10. You believe stock analysts target prices are honest and accurate recommendations
11. You buy high and sell low

If you answered yes to any of these it’s not to late to save yourselves. Just start doing the opposite of your gut. Buy when you’d sell and sell when you’d buy. Pretend you are George Costanza when he decided to get out of his sweat pants and get a real job in the Yankees front office. Just do the opposite. Except stay with Money Jokers. I swears you will feel better !

10/13/2022

Hello Jokers,
So some time has passed since I commented on the state of things. I thought let’s see what happens. Well, sh*t just keeps getting worse and worse/. Another day another one percent of the population joins our club, they just don’t know it yet, so get off your dead asses and start sharing this page please!?!

So let’s get on with business. The PPI was hotter than an egg on car hood in Tijuana, yet the market was flatter than a pancake at iHop. it would seem PPI is not the main data point. We will find out tomorrow if CPI outranks PPI. I also find it preposterous that the Fed strips out food and energy in inflation data. Those are two of the four pillars of human needs. The other two being shelter and things that happen behind closed doors. ☺️☺️☺️. Friday the big banks report and will set the tone for rest of the earnings for this quarter. I think it’s possible that we get better than expected earnings. These companies are all expecting their Christmas bonus so they can promise their families a swimming pool like Clark Griswald and not end up with a membership to the Jelly of the Month club from their prick CEO who is trying to wring out another 5 feet on their personal yacht order. So don’t go crazy with your puts and shorts just yet. You might even see a rally to 3900 in the S&P post election. If you have patience and are listening to the fed and the bankers, you might just be able to shed your Cloak of Losery and set yourself up for a once in a decade of opportunity of big gains. Jaime Dimon predicted a recession in 6-9 months. All the market stats back this up. We are f*cked. There will be a recession, and the fed knows the only way out of current inflation at these levels is a recession. So instead of pi***ng and moaning, get yourself a strategy. I’ll be waiting for 3000k on S&P and perhaps putting 20% in some 1-2 year US treasuries or just keep it simple and go all equities. Either way, we are on the precipice of what separates the bag holders from the diamond hands.

I’m waiting for a few things for a market capitulation and here they are (feel free to comment so one: free strategy exchanges are educational and Two: we know you aren’t some freaking bot mining data. but if you are mining data, send more bots to MJ’ers.)

1. VIX spikes above 40
2. volume hits highs
3. 20 day breaks 200 on max chart view
4. Cramer says sell everything
5. Fed changes tone

Peace Jokers,
Gen X Joker