FitinvestmentIdeas

08/07/2026

$AAUCF Allied Gold $AAUC : The Sell-Off After Zijin Walked Away Is Overdone

$AAUC is Africa’s fastest-growing gold producer. The share price collapsed after the Zijin takeover fell through due to China regulatory approval difficulties.

$AAUC is net cash, strongly growing, a $2 bn mkt cap that trades below 2x 2026 EV/EBITDA.

Gold production should increase by 40% and 74% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, vs 2025.

We bought when the deal termination was announced. The stock is going up every day.

Do watch yesterday's Q2 webcast.

Full investment thesis:

Allied Gold (AAUC) is Africa’s fastest-growing gold producer.

08/05/2026

Australia unveils 10-year defence innovation roadmap to accelerate future warfighting capability

The link to the report is below.

I asked AI how the Defense Innovation Roadmap is relevant for Australia-based Electro Optic Systems $EOS.AX:

1. Innovation is now central to Australia's defence strategy ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
"Investing in innovation, science and technology is fundamental to properly equipping and preparing a modern fighting force in a technology-dominated world."
Why it matters for EOS
EOS is not a traditional defence prime—it is fundamentally a defence technology company. The strategy explicitly elevates innovation from a supporting activity to a core pillar of Australia's military capability.

2. Defence wants disruptive technologies
"The new IS&T strategy will foster emerging technology and enable the development of disruptive military capabilities to deliver asymmetric advantage for the Australian Defence Force."
EOS connection
This is almost a description of EOS:
SLINGER counter-drone systems
High-energy laser weapons
AI-enabled targeting
Remote weapon stations
These are all asymmetric technologies that allow relatively inexpensive systems to defeat much more expensive threats.

3. Delivering capability faster
One of the central themes of the roadmap is accelerating the transition from research into operational capability.
"...accelerating the development and adoption of advanced military technologies..."
For EOS this could be very important because one of the biggest frustrations for Australian defence companies has historically been the long delay between successful demonstrations and procurement.

4. Emerging technologies are priority investments
The strategy states that it provides:
"a practical roadmap for how Defence will harness emerging technologies in an increasingly contested global environment."
EOS is one of Australia's leading developers of emerging military technologies, particularly in directed energy and counter-UAS.

5. Six Defence technology priorities
The roadmap notes that it
"outlines six updated IS&T Defence priorities."
Several of those priority areas overlap closely with EOS capabilities, particularly autonomous systems, AI-enabled military technologies, advanced weapons, and sensing.

6. Future warfare
The Defence announcement introducing the strategy says it is intended to
"set the agenda for Australia's defence innovation priorities and signal the next phase of research and innovation in the national security landscape."
This is encouraging because EOS already has products that have moved beyond research into deployable systems, giving it a potential first-mover advantage.
The strongest quote for an EOS investor
If I had to pick only one sentence, it would be:
"The new IS&T strategy will foster emerging technology and enable the development of disruptive military capabilities to deliver asymmetric advantage for the Australian Defence Force."
That sentence could almost be read as an investment thesis for EOS.
The second strongest
"Investing in innovation, science and technology is fundamental to properly equipping and preparing a modern fighting force in a technology-dominated world."
This is important because EOS' competitive advantage lies in advanced technology—especially laser weapons, counter-drone systems, and remotely operated weapon stations—rather than in being a large-scale defence manufacturer.

Overall, I would characterize the strategy as incrementally bullish for EOS. It doesn't guarantee contracts, but it increases the probability that Australia's procurement priorities will align with the company's existing products and technology roadmap.

www.defenceconnect.com.au/industry/18647-australia-unveils-10-year-defence-innovation-roadmap-to-accelerate-future-warfighting-capability

The Australian government has launched a new decade-long strategy aimed at accelerating the development and adoption of advanced military technologies, strengthening sovereign industrial capability and ensuring the Australian Defence Force can adapt faster.

08/05/2026

Allied Gold: $AAUC Overdone Sell-Off After The Zijin Takeover Termination

• Allied Gold is Africa’s fastest-growing gold producer, guiding rapid production increases through 2027.
• At current gold prices, Allied should generate cash flows equal to its current market capitalization in the next 18 months.
• Following the terminated Zijin takeover, AAUC trades at a deep discount—0.4x 2027 EV/EBITDA—well below sector peers’ 5–7x multiples.
• Recent share price declines appear excessive; major brokers’ targets (C$40–C$49) remain materially above current levels, reflecting strong operational outlook.

Allied Gold outlook: fast production growth to 2027, big cash flow, deep valuation discount vs. peers, and upside to broker targets. Click for more on AAUC stock.

08/03/2026

We have increased today our position in Electro Optic Systems, ticker $EOS.AX, listed in Australia and Germany.

$EOS.AX is the global leader in shooting down drones with bullet, high energy laser and interceptor drones. It was a formal Australian laser research institute where Australia spent over $1 billion on laser research. $EOS.AX has the technology to shoot down a coin from the orbit. Its biggest business will be laser weapons including satelite elimination with laser.

$EOS.AX reported last week their best quarter ever. Revenues up 264% and record backlog of A$846 million as of June 30, 2026, reflecting an 84% increase from December 31, 2025.

Despite that shortsellers came in to the story - and their selling pushed the share price down 50% from recent highs. 6.7% shares are sold short, or over 14 million shares. Daily trading is around 1.5-3 million shares.

We have been buying. $EOS.AX has a very strong pipeline of contracts in negotiation. Share price react positively to contracts wins. I feel the next contract win could cause a nice short squeeze. We have been buyers to participate on this. Our best idea currently.

Copied from our substack:
https://open.substack.com/chat/posts/7934a442-e79e-40d2-bf32-24e9249b549b

Short interest graph:
https://www.shortinterest.au/ticker/eos

Electro Optic Systems Holdings Limited: current % short, Δ7d/Δ30d, 52‑week range, and history.

07/30/2026

We are buyers of Allied Gold $AAUC both yesterday and today

Yesterday the company announced a break up of the takeover by Zijin Gold at C$44. The Zijin announced bought in deal of 10% stake in $AAUC .

After the break up $AAUC is tradin now at C$24.4 right now - 50 discount to the takeover price. That is creazy valuation:
- $AAUC is US$2.3 bln mkt cap (EV US$1.95 bln).
- Hannam Research estimates 2026 EBITDA is at US$1.25 bln and 2027 ebitda at US$1.83 bln - due to strong production ramp up this year
- $AAUC is trading at EV/EBITDA multiple 1.56 and 1.06 for 2026 and 2027, respectively
- $AAUC is very well run. The stock will recover. Hannam has a target price of C$49, Cannacord had PT of C$55 before the takeover was announced.
- The risk 30% of EBITDA is generated in Mali. The CEO has been very effective operator in Mali, being the first to sign the new licence deal with the Mali government, superior to what the other sign. Still, Mali is a risk.
- We are bullish

We are buyers of Allied Gold $AAUC both yesterday and today Yesterday the company announced a break up of the takeover by Zijin Gold at C$44. The Zijin announced bought in deal of 10% stake in $AAUC. After the break up $AAUC is tradin now at C$24.4 right now - 50 discount to the takeover price. That...

07/28/2026

Update on Antrix
$ATEX

One of the most notable developments since we published
$ATEX thesis on Substack has been the rotation of shareholders. Several large institutional investors have established positions, with T. Rowe Price now owning approximately 12% of the company. We believe this is an important shift in the shareholder base.Anterix update

Rather than continuing to build value solely through utility-by-utility leasing agreements, investors are encouraging
$ATEX management to pursue a transformational strategic partnership or transaction—similar to the value created by Globalstar's agreement with Amazon.

$ATEX has retained Morgan Stanley to conduct a strategic review, signalling that the Board is actively evaluating opportunities to maximise shareholder value. In our view, the combination of a refreshed institutional shareholder base and a formal strategic review significantly increases the likelihood that all strategic alternatives will be considered.

Another development worth watching is Lynk's ongoing testing of Anterix's spectrum. If successful, it could further demonstrate the versatility of the 900 MHz band beyond its current utility applications. We expect updates as the testing programme progresses over the coming quarters.

The upside is in strategic sale that the large investors are pushing the company to do. Who could ultimately be interested? Our view is that companies building integrated satellite-terrestrial communications platforms—including SpaceX, Amazon (Project Kuiper) and AST SpaceMobile—could find Anterix's nationwide 900 MHz spectrum strategically valuable. Whether such interest materialises remains uncertain, but we believe the strategic optionality created by the strategic review is not yet fully reflected in the current valuation.

07/28/2026

We are long Andrada Mining

What does a 50% extension mean?

It means our geologists have identified lithium-bearing pegmatites over a much larger area than previously mapped.

Today's results extend the identified mineralised trend at Lithium Ridge from 6 km to 9 km, while also identifying additional lithium, tin and tantalum mineralisation across the licence.

Each exploration programme adds another piece to the geological picture.

Anthony Viljoen, Chief Executive Officer, commented:

“These results complement the encouraging diamond drilling results reported to date, which have demonstrated lithium mineralisation from surface to borehole depth and have strengthened our understanding of the scale and continuity of the broader pegmatite system. The identification of additional mineralised pegmatites beyond the principal trend further highlights the exploration potential that remains across the licence area.”

Read today's announcement: https://bit.ly/4vOUbHL

07/27/2026

$EOS.AS, our favourite drone-killing company, posted impressive results:

· 1H26 revenue up 284% to A$169m — a 33% beat vs consensus
· First positive underlying half-year EBITDA
· Incremental RWS (Remote Weapon System) contract wins of A$177m
· Record order backlog of A$846m, up 84% from A$459m at year-end 2025
· FY26 revenue guidance raised to A$280m–A$300m (fromA300m (A$240m–A$270m). This excludes MARSS and any laser revenue
· Balance sheet is net cash: ~A$256m available cash against a A$1.7bn market cap, so an EV of roughly A$1.45bn

The guidance looks conservative.A$280–300m against A$169m delivered in 1H implies 2H revenue of A$111–131m — 22% to 34% below the first half. That is hard to square with the order intake we are seeing out of the Middle East, Ukraine and Europe. I expect the range to move again.

MARSS is not in the numbers. Since the acquisition, MARSS has won A$190m of new orders, including the GBP 85m Middle East counter-drone contract. All of that is upside to the guided range.

Three laser catalysts. A follow-on with the Netherlands, two large German tenders (army and navy), and offset deals in South Korea. Any one of them re-rates the stock. Defence procurement moves slowly, so I would not underwrite all three landing this year — but the Netherlands follow-on is the closest to signature.

The stock is down 40% over four weeks after a very large run — profit-taking rather than anything in the business. I was a buyer into the weakness and remain long.

https://open.substack.com/chat/posts/aaa95371-9963-45d5-b24c-970db4d8a92b

EOS, our favourite drone-killing company, posted impressive results. · 1H26 revenue up 284% to A$169m — a 33% beat vs consensus · First positive underlying half-year EBITDA · Incremental RWS (Remote Weapon System) contract wins of A$177m · Record order backlog of A$846m, up 84% fromA$459m at y...

07/24/2026

We have written here repeatedly about Edenred $EDEN.PA

"When the market realizes Edenred is back to compounding, this will significantly re-rate the stock," said Jan Barta, partner at Pale Fire Capital.

The fund said Edenred should return to organic earnings growth of more than 8% from 2027, in line with its historical trend.

Jan Bárta is one of the best investors in Central Europe. And he is right on Edenred. He has 7% stake.

In June, Edenred confirmed it had been approached by investment funds over a potential takeover, after reports of interest from BC Partners sent its shares up 17%.

Barta estimated a fair takeover price of around 36 euros per share, while Slupecki cited 37 euros per share in his March report.

https://live.euronext.com/en/financial-news/edenred-valuation-gap-draws-private-equity-interest-after-regulatory-selloff

By Dimitri Rhodes and Margaux Perrin July 23 (Reuters) - A steep drop in Edenred's share price driven by regulatory pressures has left the French meal voucher provider significantly undervalued, analysts and investors say, creating an opening for private equity takeovers.

07/24/2026

Congratulation to all who bought with us $IMAX four days ago based on our suggestion here. Up 15% in 4 days.

Yesterday, the IMAX management confirmed our thesis: Christopher Nolan’s Oddesey is going to be the best ever feature for IMAX, 50% bigger than Oppenhaimer, the previous biggist film for IMAX.

Surprisingly - the management only reconfirmed its full year guidance. This means there is still wave of reratings and changes of PT ahead. We remain long.

Congratulation to all who bought with us $IMAX four days ago based on our suggestion here. Up 15%. Yesterday, the IMAX management confirmed our thesis: Christopher Nolan’s Oddesey is going to be the best ever feature for IMAX, 50% bigger than Oppenhaimer, the previous biggist film for IMAX. Surpri...