10/20/2025
A New Week Begins – My XAU/USD Outlook (Oct 20–26, 2025)
Every new trading week starts with fresh possibilities — and this one feels particularly interesting for Gold (XAU/USD).
Last week, Gold hit a record high near $4,380, then cooled down about 2% — a healthy correction after an impressive +13.5% monthly rally.
Technically, the trend remains strongly bullish, but the market looks a bit overheated in the short term.
Here’s what I’m tracking 👇
📈 Current Trend:
RSI (Daily): 81 → slightly overbought, showing early correction signs
MACD: still bullish, but histogram tightening
Support: $4,250–$4,230 (key), $4,200–$4,180
Resistance: $4,280–$4,300, then $4,400+
🌍 This Week’s Forecast (Oct 20–26):
I expect Gold to move within the $4,255–$4,440 range, possibly testing lower zones before another leg up.
Investor sentiment remains 80% bullish, though mild profit-taking and USD rebound could trigger short-term dips.
🪙 Key Drivers to Watch:
US–China Trade Tensions: Tariffs (100%) and rare-earth restrictions keeping Gold above $4,300
US Government Shutdown: Ongoing uncertainty → supports safe-haven demand
Fed Rate Cuts: 25 bps cut likely in October, another in December (good for Gold)
Central Bank Buying: 900+ tons/year; ETF inflows hit $64B (Jan–Sep)
Global Inflation: Persistent, keeping investors defensive
Long-term, I’m still leaning bullish — $4,300–$4,900 by year-end remains possible if global risk stays elevated.
Let’s see how the week unfolds.
As always, I’ll track, adjust, and share my learnings here.
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