Fain Siebel

06/12/2022

A financial system founded on excessive debt & cheap money can't handle significantly higher rates without a major calamity.
There is a limit to how much the Fed can actually raise rates.
Simple math

06/10/2022

Bulls, today's CPI guaranteed that your next bailout is 100% science fiction. Your favorite genre.

Now I'm worried about your mental health.

Because you don't have any.

06/09/2022

Fed has been in rate hiking cycles 13 times since 1955.
Result: 10 of 13 ended in recession (hard landing). The 3 green arrows highlight the 3 times Fed rate hikes did not coincide with a recession.

Conclusion: Buckle up

06/08/2022

Uranium Stocks Soar On Report US Seeking Billions To End Reliance On Russian Enriched Uranium

06/07/2022

Best shareholder letters - S&P 500 edition (2022)

06/07/2022

Midtown Manhattan median asking rents:

06/06/2022

Not typical to see unemployment rate get this low while payrolls haven't regained their peak ... job gains have been solid throughout recovery of pandemic, but payrolls remain shy of prior peak despite unemployment rate falling to 3.6%

06/06/2022

If you wonder why $SPX is likely to retest at least 62% of the April-May decline, the May low was as oversold as the September 2001 low(as measured by TSI(7,4,7)) and almost as oversold as the March 2001 low. In both cases SPX retraced between 62% and 78% of the preceding decline.

06/05/2022

The 'Absurd Market' Hypothesis

06/05/2022

It’s been the longest stretch of selling by FIIs since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, over a 12-month period

06/03/2022

06/02/2022

April factory orders +0.3% vs. +0.7% est. & +1.8% in prior month (rev down from +2.2%); ex-trans +0.3% vs. +2.2% prior (rev down from +2.5%) … despite softer monthly print, orders rose +14% y/y vs. +12.9% prior