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We invite you to join us on March 6th for a discussion with Morgan Housel, the New York Times Bestselling author of The ...
02/27/2024

We invite you to join us on March 6th for a discussion with Morgan Housel, the New York Times Bestselling author of The Psychology of Money and Same As Ever, as we delve into legacy, inheritance and intergenerational family issues.

The event will be moderated by Brian Portnoy, Ph.D., CFA, the founder of Shaping Wealth, author of The Geometry of Wealth, and an expert in behavioral finance.

You can reserve your spot here: https://app.10east.co/events/wealth-and-legacy-with-morgan-housel

Adverse selection and fraud are mammoth risks that lurk in the often opaque underbelly of private markets.Investors shou...
02/12/2024

Adverse selection and fraud are mammoth risks that lurk in the often opaque underbelly of private markets.

Investors should be thoughtful about their access point to these markets.

Here are a few questions that may be helpful in guiding your approach:

- Are interests aligned? Who is getting paid and for what? Is the investment partner paying to market the deal (poor quality signal)? Are the key principals investing their own capital in the offering?

- Why am I seeing this deal? Identify why the investment partner is raising capital through your access point, is it because large-scale institutional investors passed?

- Who is negotiating terms? Is the individual or team responsible for negotiating/reviewing key terms sophisticated and well-positioned to identify key risks?

- Who is monitoring this deal post-close? Is there a team in-place, or resources dedicated to monitoring performance and engaging with the underlying investment partner?

- Who is driving this investment decision? Are the principals responsible for sourcing/signing-off on the investment experienced? What is their prior track record?

- Does the access channel have a track record? If not, why? How will they be held accountable?

- What was the due diligence process and who conducted it?

Investing is not best done as a hobby. Map out the incentives and be mindful of these risks.

More here 👉 : www.10east.co

Investors often experience an almost instinctive draw towards negotiating fees.Outcomes are uncertain, and human nature ...
02/11/2024

Investors often experience an almost instinctive draw towards negotiating fees.

Outcomes are uncertain, and human nature craves predictability. That's why (amongst other reasons) we seek comfort in economic forecasts, market forecasts, etc. (2% inflation?). We like having a forecast as a navigational aid; it's comforting.

In the context of private markets (and particularly with equity investments), predictability can be elusive.

One exception is fees.

Achieving a fee reduction is a tangible victory—shaving 50 basis points off asset management fees boosts returns by an equivalent amount.

For those tracking market beta, every basis point counts, making this effort meaningful.

Yet, when we venture into the more esoteric areas of private markets—strategies with limited capacity and a niche appeal—the significance of those 50 basis points typically diminishes.

In certain categories, where demand far exceeds supply and opportunities are rarer (often offering the potential for outsized returns), an excessive focus on fees can be misguided.

Remarkably, the performance differential between top and bottom deciles in private equity is a staggering 30.36% (net IRR).

Shift focus from fees to performance potential.

Expend resources on proactive deal sourcing and network expansion. Forge and grow long-term partnerships with talented individuals and industry specialists. Create and contribute value, by being a thoughtful partner, not by extracting it. Further, focus on minimizing exposure to adverse selection and fraud—two key risks likely to relegate investors to lower quartiles/deciles.

The allure of a lower fee schedule may be psychologically soothing but will generally not change the outcome of an underperforming investment. Focus on what matters—choosing investments with the highest potential to outperform.

Here's a sneak peek into our current vertical-specific focus in advance of our Market Outlook for 2024:Private Equity – ...
02/11/2024

Here's a sneak peek into our current vertical-specific focus in advance of our Market Outlook for 2024:

Private Equity – target return >25%. Focus on niche lower-middle market strategies with specialized ex*****on capabilities in lesser competitive markets. Emphasis on sectors with cyclical insulation (i.e., mission critical services). Larger-scale funds with considerable capital deployment in 2020-2022 vintages may reel from lagged valuation marks.

Private Credit – target return >12%. Focus on differentiated exposures, senior in capital stack, backed by hard assets with positive cash flow. Crowding-in of private credit may dilute returns following the past decade’s yield famine.

Venture Capital – target return >30%. Focus on seed/pre-seed and one-off exposures. Generally, expect TVPI to gradually mean revert—excessive capital deployment at market peak in 2021 has led to poor vintage diversification. Zombie companies = Zombie VCs.

Real Estate – target return >20%. Focus on residential and special situations with a healthy unleveraged yield. Select distressed pockets are also attractive. The ‘when rates go down’ narrative is hope, not a strategy—avoid exposures underpinned by this bet.

As an aside, investors should not underestimate the resource drain of underperforming investments—it’s critical to assess the impact of legacy assets on the investment partner’s go-forward strategy.

What sectors/sub-sectors pique your interest?

Private equity exposures available through wealth management channels are likely to underperform their comparable instit...
02/10/2024

Private equity exposures available through wealth management channels are likely to underperform their comparable institutional benchmark.

Here’s why.

Individual investors represent the largest portion of investable wealth in the U.S. but remain substantially under-allocated to private markets at (20%).

As a result, many large-scale ‘alts’ players are keen to diversify their LP base by raising capital from individual investors.

It is generally neither economical nor practical for these players to distribute their products directly to individual investors (for reasons related to their scale, existing LP base, cost structure, etc.).

As such, these firms typically turn to distribution agreements with intermediaries where demand is aggregated with preexisting critical scale (e.g., RIAs, IBDs, private banks, etc.). These 'gatekeepers' are the operational backbone for client-facing financial advisors (FAs).

While gatekeepers do, of course, create value through access—there are hidden costs that arise from their scale and embedded incentive structure.

Traditional PE funds are characterized by certain structural features:

Drawdown vehicles = minimize cash drag

Illiquid = execute value creation cycle

Finite life = return capital to LPs

These are features, not bugs, and exist to enable GPs to execute their strategy and, ostensibly, maximize performance for their LPs.

The problem, though, is that gatekeepers often have a borderline allergic reaction to each.

Drawdown structure = operational complexity

Illiquid = client risk

Finite life = less profitable

Enter, tender/interval funds—an increasingly popular vehicle through which individual investors are supposedly accessing PE exposures via these gatekeepers.

Tender funds are essentially mutual funds but with 'alts' as the underlying rather than stocks/bonds.

Gatekeepers generally have a strong bias towards tender funds, they’re scalable, evergreen, single-call, and have intermittent liquidity (usually quarterly). Put otherwise, they afford greater profitability and operational simplicity relative to traditional PE.

Incentives drive outcomes. And here, they’re misaligned.

Wrapping a traditional PE fund in a tender fund vehicle can result in structural trade-offs that tend to have the net effect of diluting performance:

Single-call = increases cash drag

Liquidity = requires credit allocation to manage redemptions

Leverage = constricts investment strategy

What does this all mean?

PE exposures wrapped in a tender fund structure take a different form—the investment and portfolio strategy must be necessarily different, and many of these changes are more likely than not to result in performance dilution (see chart).

The combination of structural dilution and fee layering ultimately creates a highly profitable investment product for gatekeepers but one that is almost certain to underperform the applicable benchmark for end investors.

Non-traded REITS (NTRs) have raised more than $60B over the past half decade, predominantly from individual investors.In...
02/10/2024

Non-traded REITS (NTRs) have raised more than $60B over the past half decade, predominantly from individual investors.

Individual investors can generally only access these vehicles through financial advisors/intermediaries—resulting in substantial fee dilution to the end investor.

This ‘access-dilution’ is not well understood, NTR fee loads can be highly punitive.

A hypothetical $100K investment qualifies investors for share classes D, S, or T depending on their access point (private bank, wirehouse, IBD, etc.).

Here’s a typical breakdown of the advisor/intermediary fees:

- Advisory fee, recurring (function of scale)/ 0.5-1.0%
- Sales commissions, upfront (function of advisory firm structure/agreements)/ 1.5-3.5%
- Dealer manager, upfront (function of entry point)/ 0.0-0.5%
- Stockholder servicing, recurring (function of scale/relationship)/ 0.25-0.85%

And then you have GP-based fees:

- Asset management, recurring/ 1.5% on NAV
- Incentive, recurring/variable/ 12.5% of return above a 5% hurdle, full catch-up

For blue-chip, large-scale exposures, fees move the needle as performance tends to cluster around the asset class median (i.e., there’s usually less performance variance relative to more niche, sub-scale alts).

Fee willingness to pay (WTP) should, in theory, be driven by the relative value that is created for the end investor.

In practice, it may be more a product of information asymmetry, barriers to entry, gatekeeper incentives, and entrenched industry dynamics.

Important for FAs to highlight any conflicts of interests and ensure their clients understand the different drivers of fee dilution.

In private equity, we generally target >20% returns.We do this by focusing resources on niche, off-the-run exposures whe...
02/10/2024

In private equity, we generally target >20% returns.

We do this by focusing resources on niche, off-the-run exposures where we believe there’s significant potential for value creation—which we reference as a Value Creation Premium (VCP).

Theoretically, your expected return on private market exposures can be decomposed into a few key elements: (1) market beta, (2) illiquidity premium, and (3) VCP.

Key drivers of the VCP:

i) Specialization: having a depth of knowledge where others don’t;
ii) Information Advantages: knowing what others don’t;
iii) Adept Ex*****on: creating structures and executing where others can’t;
iv) Sourcing/Access: seeing and gaining access to ‘first look’ deal flow;
vi) Selection: time-tested filtering heuristics and/or due diligence processes;
vii) Network: ability to tap specialized knowledge or augment access.

Larger-scale, blue-chip exposures (think mega funds) are likely to have lower performance dispersion and cluster around the median. The markets that these players are in generally have much greater efficiency, more competition, a smaller investment universe, and often a higher correlation to market beta.

The opposite is typically true for niche, smaller-scale (sub-scale) exposures—higher performance dispersion, less efficiency, and much more ‘low hanging fruit’—often creating greater opportunity for excess return.

That’s not to necessarily imply that blue-chip exposures are inferior relative to sub-scale, it simply underscores different risk/return dynamics.
A well-balanced portfolio may benefit from both.

More here 👉: 10east.co

The U.S. government (the largest customer in the world) is expected to allocate approximately $10.5 trillion* across its...
02/09/2024

The U.S. government (the largest customer in the world) is expected to allocate approximately $10.5 trillion* across its local, state, and federal arms in 2024.

Evolving priorities that shape this enormous expenditure will create both winners and losers of for-profit organizations and their financial backers.

Success in the GovTech/Services segment, we believe, hinges on aligning with durable, investible spending trends such as cloud computing migration and addressing workforce aging.

Agencies are routinely pigeonholed into allocating 80% of their IT budgets to maintaining existing, antiquated IT infrastructure*–and the U.S. federal government is facing a growing skill gap in IT and cybersecurity with retirement-age workers now outnumbering employees under 30 by more than two-to-one*.

Our abridged sector thesis lays out our conviction that focused exposure in the GovTech/Services segment is worthy of an addition to our private markets portfolio.

Read more here: 10east.co/insights

*Sources available in full blog post via the above link.

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