ARC Forex Funds

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ARC is a project formed by the association between a number of member companies from different countries such as Russia, China, India, UK, USA, Venezuela, Newland.

The April jobs report topped economists' expectations by a wide margin and the unemployment rate ticked down to remain a...
05/07/2023

The April jobs report topped economists' expectations by a wide margin and the unemployment rate ticked down to remain at 50-year lows, complicating the Federal Reserve's mission to rein in inflation.
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 253,000 in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday, well ahead of economists' forecast for the addition of 185,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate, which is derived from a separate survey, slipped to 3.4% from 3.5% in March, remaining at levels not seen in half a century. Economists expected the unemployment rate to rise to 3.6%.

For the last year and a half or so, when it came to economic data such as the monthly jobs report that was released this...
05/05/2023

For the last year and a half or so, when it came to economic data such as the monthly jobs report that was released this morning, market watchers, traders, and investors have been stuck in a weird bizarro world where good was bad and bad was good. Things like low unemployment, high levels of job creation, and strong wage growth that were, on the face of it, good things, have become bad in terms of their implications for the Fed’s fight against inflation. This morning, though, the initial reaction in equity futures to another strong jobs report for April suggests that those days may be behind us.
Non-farm payrolls, the number of jobs in the economy, increased by a higher-than-expected 253k last month, with an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.4%, the lowest since the massive boom in the 1960s. Meanwhile, earnings increased at an annual rate of 4.4%. That would be a strong report in pretty much any circumstances, but at a time when the Fed Funds rate has risen from 0% to 5% over a fairly short period, it is a remarkable one. In the not-too-distant past that would have prompted a market collapse. Not this morning, though, where twenty minutes after the data hit the tape, stock index futures are trading just a little higher than they were going into the release.

WASHINGTON, May 4 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits increased last week as the ...
05/04/2023

WASHINGTON, May 4 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits increased last week as the labor market gradually softens amid higher interest rates, which are cooling demand in the economy.
But borrowing costs could remain elevated for a while, with other data on Thursday showing labor costs surging in the first quarter as worker productivity slumped. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by another 25 basis points to the 5.00%-5.25% range on Wednesday, and signaled it may pause further increases, though it kept a hawkish bias.

Amazon posted significant improvements in its first-quarter report last week. E-commerce sales are steadily increasing, ...
05/03/2023

Amazon posted significant improvements in its first-quarter report last week. E-commerce sales are steadily increasing, cost-cutting is working, and management gave a bright outlook for the rest of the year.
Investors, though, seemed to focus on the worst part of the report, which was the state of Amazon Web Services (AWS). It has been a reliable growth generator and profit machine for many years, and it became even more important when e-commerce began to slow down. Now, e-commerce is turning around, but AWS is beginning to slow down.
Nonetheless, investors ignored progress in the company's newest venture, which could become a crucial part of the overall business.
Amazon is trying again
Amazon announced its acquisition of One Medical last year for $3.9 billion, but it didn't close the sale until this February. The company had originally offered its own healthcare service, called Amazon Care. It was launched in 2019, first as an in-house healthcare services provider, and then -- in typical Amazon style -- it offered it to its enterprise customers.
As it grew, management realized that it couldn't offer these large customers all the services they needed without heavily investing in the business. So instead, it acquired One Medical, which combines telehealth services with in-person visits with the goal of providing fast and thorough care. It closed down Amazon Care at the end of 2022, and launched its version of One Medical a few weeks later.
CEO Andy Jassy explained how Amazon thinks about investing in a new business. If it believes it can offer a differentiated experience with the right return on its investments, it will consider how to create the business or acquire an existing one.

WASHINGTON, May 2 (Reuters) - U.S. job openings fell for a third straight month in March, but remained at levels consist...
05/02/2023

WASHINGTON, May 2 (Reuters) - U.S. job openings fell for a third straight month in March, but remained at levels consistent with a tight labor market.
Job openings, a measure of labor demand, dropped 384,000 to 9.590 million on the last day of March, the lowest level since April 2021, the Labor Department said in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, on Tuesday. Data for February was revised higher to show 9.974 million job openings instead of the previously reported 9.931 million.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.775 million job openings. Federal Reserve officials were gathered for a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday. The U.S. central bank is expected to raise its policy interest rate by another 25 basis points to a 5%-5.25% range at the meeting's conclusion on Wednesday.

Today’s Big PictureAsia-Pacific equity markets were largely closed today due to the International Worker’s Day Holiday, ...
05/01/2023

Today’s Big Picture
Asia-Pacific equity markets were largely closed today due to the International Worker’s Day Holiday, the global equivalent of our Labor Day. Those indexes that did publish today include Japan’s Nikkei and Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries, which gained 0.92% and 0.31%, respectively. European markets are also closed today marking International Worker’s Day, or “May Day” as it is known, except for OMX Copenhagen, which is up 0.43% in midday trading, and U.S. futures point to a flat to down open.
This morning brings a fresh look at the U.S. manufacturing economy with dueling reporting from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). S&P will publish its findings at 9:45 AM ET, and the headline figure is expected to inch lower to 48 from 48.6 the prior month, suggesting that part of the economy continued to contract. For context, a reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a print below 50 contraction. Soon after, ISM’s April Manufacturing PMI Index will be out at 10 AM ET, and the consensus thinking is it will improve to 46.8 from 46.3 the prior month.

An important week in the first quarter earnings season just concluded, where tech giants such as Microsoft (MSFT), Amazo...
04/30/2023

An important week in the first quarter earnings season just concluded, where tech giants such as Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Google parent Alphabet (GOOG , GOOGL), among others, reported their results, which affirmed the re-emergence of mega-cap Big Tech dominance in the stock market.
It’s not just Big Tech that’s shining, however. Out of the half of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings thus far, close to 80% have surpassed Wall Street estimates. Despite the seemingly downbeat economic climate, that 80% beat rate is on par with the three-year average, dispelling some concerns about the likelihood of a deep recession. Investors have responded with strategic buying of equities, which helped put the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track to log its best monthly performance since January with an April gain of 2.2%.

Artificial intelligence (AI) permeated industries for years, but the release of ChatGPT thrust it into the limelight. It...
04/29/2023

Artificial intelligence (AI) permeated industries for years, but the release of ChatGPT thrust it into the limelight. It's the talk of the investment community and around the water coolers across the country. But what exactly is it?
AI extends far beyond "intelligent" (and sometimes sinister) robots in the movies or Chatbots like ChatGPT. At its base, it is the concept of using machines to perform problem-solving functions previously reliant on human intervention. Machine learning, a subset of AI, means that applications improve performance over time as they consume data.

Healthcare is an industry that screams AI. Drug development costs billions of dollars in research and development and has a high failure rate. Estimates say that less than 15% of drugs that enter clinical trials will be approved, and this doesn't account for those that never reach the trial stage. Companies like AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV) are harnessing AI's ability to spot patterns and sift through massive amounts of data for drug discovery.
There are several reasons to love AbbVie, like its $58 billion in 2022 revenue and $25 billion operating cash flow, its impressive portfolio of drugs in development, and 4% dividend, which has risen every year since the company was formed in 2013. Biosimilars for the company's drug Humira were released in the U.S. this year, so AbbVie will see that revenue decline; however, new drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq are forecast to fill much of this gap with combined sales of $17.5 billion by 2025.

When I meet people and, in the course of conversation, tell them that I have made a living from financial markets for mo...
04/28/2023

When I meet people and, in the course of conversation, tell them that I have made a living from financial markets for most of my life and that I contribute daily here, most want to talk about it. That means that I talk to a lot of people who are not experts or industry insiders, but regular people with regular hopes, dreams, and concerns. They each have an individual goal and timeline for their investing, they have differing political views, and different levels of wealth but there are some questions that regularly come up in those conversations from different people throughout that spectrum. Here are three of the most common questions and, and the answers that I typically give to them.
"Where is the Stock Market Going?"
The most frequent question, of course, is “Where is the stock market going?” to which I usually give the honest if somewhat uninformative answer “Up and down.” That is flippant and designed to lighten the mood, but it does illustrate a couple of important points.

Around forty years ago, my lifelong obsession with trading and markets began when I started work in the interbank forex ...
04/27/2023

Around forty years ago, my lifelong obsession with trading and markets began when I started work in the interbank forex market. Even after all these years, I can remember all too well what I felt during my first few weeks in a dealing room, and it was mainly confusion. There was no formal training program back then, at least not at the firm where I worked, and trainees were just expected to absorb knowledge and ask the right questions.
But for those looking to trade forex from home these days, who don’t have direct contact with the ten- or twenty-year veterans whose brains you can pick, a basic explanation of what forex is and how it works is needed. No market should be entered blindly, but forex, with its large amounts of leverage, can be particularly harmful to your wealth if you don’t understand the basics of the market.

In the stock market, or any traded market for that matter, “opportunity” can be a dangerous concept. When you think you ...
04/25/2023

In the stock market, or any traded market for that matter, “opportunity” can be a dangerous concept. When you think you see it, it is because you believe that something is mispriced, which for most investors means a stock that is cheaper than it should be. Very early in my market career, though, I was taught to be careful of that. As my first boss was fond of saying, markets cannot be “wrong” per se. After all, who is more likely to be wrong: thousands of educated and informed traders whose collective wisdom results in the price of something, or you?
There are a few ways, though, that both the market’s current pricing and your dissenting view of the future can be right simultaneously, and when that is the case, there is real opportunity. That seems to be true right now with the stock of the big auto manufacturers, and General Motors (GM) in particular.

Today’s Big PictureAsia-Pacific equity markets finished the day mixed. Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries declined 0.14%, Ho...
04/24/2023

Today’s Big Picture
Asia-Pacific equity markets finished the day mixed. Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries declined 0.14%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.58%, China’s Shanghai Composite declined 0.78%, and South Korea’s KOSPI closed 0.82% lower led by Utilities. Japan’s Nikkei added 0.10%, Taiwan’s TAIEX gained 0.15%, and India’s SENSEX advanced 0.67% on Banking and Financials. European markets are mixed in midday trading and U.S. futures point to a lower open.

First quarter earnings ramps up this week and so far, per Factset, Q1 results are faring better than the previous two quarters with roughly 75% of S&P component companies that have reported EPS doing so with upside surprises. This figure is roughly in line with the trailing 5-year average but they note that the average 5.8% upside surprise is trailing the 5-year average of 8.4%. We’d point out, however, that the sample size is roughly 12% of the S&P 500 total basket of companies. Following this week’s more than 1,000 earnings reports, including 180 S& 500 companies, we’ll have a much better idea about 2023 earnings expectations for the S&P 500 and the market’s valuation. Coming into this week’s FactSet’s findings put 2023 EPS growth at less than 1% compared to 2022, a far cry from the 8% forecast at the end of last September.

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