05/05/2023
For the last year and a half or so, when it came to economic data such as the monthly jobs report that was released this morning, market watchers, traders, and investors have been stuck in a weird bizarro world where good was bad and bad was good. Things like low unemployment, high levels of job creation, and strong wage growth that were, on the face of it, good things, have become bad in terms of their implications for the Fed’s fight against inflation. This morning, though, the initial reaction in equity futures to another strong jobs report for April suggests that those days may be behind us.
Non-farm payrolls, the number of jobs in the economy, increased by a higher-than-expected 253k last month, with an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.4%, the lowest since the massive boom in the 1960s. Meanwhile, earnings increased at an annual rate of 4.4%. That would be a strong report in pretty much any circumstances, but at a time when the Fed Funds rate has risen from 0% to 5% over a fairly short period, it is a remarkable one. In the not-too-distant past that would have prompted a market collapse. Not this morning, though, where twenty minutes after the data hit the tape, stock index futures are trading just a little higher than they were going into the release.