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[Hotspots in the US Stock Market]Quantum Technology: Over the past three days, the overall increase in the quantum techn...
11/18/2025

[Hotspots in the US Stock Market]
Quantum Technology: Over the past three days, the overall increase in the quantum technology sector has been modest, with stock prices rising slowly. The slow pace is attributed to the uncertainty of financial reports. The medium and long-term investment in quantum technology can be confirmed, and the slow short-term returns will not affect the investment enthusiasm of the entire sector.
Robotics: On Monday, the sector performed better than most industries in the market. The robotics sector is relatively certain in the fourth quarter and has a certain degree of sustainability. The entire sector is at a low level, and there is relatively large room for growth.
Pharmaceuticals/Healthcare: The industry has the smallest increase in 2025 and the lowest valuation. Recently, the intensity of industry consolidation has increased, and the attention to innovative drugs has risen significantly. During the earnings season, it has received more attention, and short-term returns have increased significantly year-on-year.

When will the decline of unprofitable winners end?Depends on several factors:Macro sentiment (CPI, interest rate cuts, C...
11/18/2025

When will the decline of unprofitable winners end?
Depends on several factors:
Macro sentiment (CPI, interest rate cuts, CN-US), OpenAI's wall of doubt, positioning.
Macro sentiment:
will become more optimistic with the 10.24 CPI, the interest rate cut at the 10.29 FOMC meeting, and the leaders' meeting at the 11.1 APEC meeting.
OpenAI's Wall of Doubt:
Doubts about OpenAI will continue.
The earnings reports of MSFT/META/AMZN/GOOGL next week will alleviate concerns.
This can be considered in this way: even if we don't consider OpenAI's orders, Big Tech's orders are real and supported by cash flow.
In addition, the financial reports of AI-related companies that released their earnings yesterday all exceeded expectations. Although the overall sentiment led to "sell the news" and prices actually declined (except for APH), the financial reports show that the demand for AI Data centers remains strong.
Positioning:
This is the only unfavorable factor.
Because according to the data from GS prime book, the positioning of unprofitable winners (momentum) is still at a high level, at the 90th percentile over the past year.
GS's view is that "there is still a risk of continued correction."
（The drawdown in Momentum may be at risk to
continue as Momentum exposure in our Prime Book remains elevated (90th percentile 1-yr, 94th percentile 5-yr) and we are entering the worst 3m period for the factor.）
However, from a trading perspective, the current price has already retraced by 30%. In the short term, investors will not continue to reduce their positions on a large scale and will enter a wait-and-see mode: wait for the price to rebound, and if they continue to be bearish on the after-market, then reduce their positions.

What to look for in the financial reports of GOOGL/META/AMZN/MSFT? After September 9th, the prices of the aforementioned...
11/18/2025

What to look for in the financial reports of GOOGL/META/AMZN/MSFT?
After September 9th, the prices of the aforementioned hyperscalers have remained relatively stable. Market attention and capital have been drawn to hardware, computing power, and new cloud services by OpenAI's orders. Trading has revolved around whether OpenAI's orders will materialize, whether OpenAI has created an AI bubble, and ORCL's gross margin.
On the AI value chain, the hyperscalers still have the strongest earning power because they possess full-stack technology, customers, customer data, products, and pricing power.
The key points we focus on in this financial report are:
1. The growth rate of cloud services.
2. The monetization of AI for consumer-facing applications (commerce, search).

Powell: May Stop Balance Sheet Reduction in the Coming Months In his last public speech before the quiet period of the F...
11/18/2025

Powell: May Stop Balance Sheet Reduction in the Coming Months
In his last public speech before the quiet period of the Federal Reserve meeting at the end of this month, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that since the Fed's interest rate decision meeting nearly a month ago, the outlook has not changed much. The Fed may stop reducing its balance sheet (quantitative tightening) in the coming months.
Halting the balance sheet reduction is an important turning point in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, marking the end of a round of aggressive tightening cycles. It is not itself a loosening but rather a pause in tightening. This is usually a positive signal for the market, meaning that the tightening of liquidity has come to an end, which helps to stabilize the financial market and is beneficial to the stock and bond markets.
Why does the Fed want to "stop balance sheet reduction"?
The main considerations are as follows:
1. Need for financial stability: Excessive and rapid balance sheet reduction would deplete too much reserve in the banking system, potentially leading to a recurrence of the "cash crunch" that occurred in 2019 and triggering sharp fluctuations in short-term interest rates.
2. Uncertain economic outlook: If there are signs of economic slowdown or the economy faces recession risks, continuing to tighten monetary policy (withdrawing liquidity) may exacerbate economic difficulties.
3. Believes that liquidity has returned to normal: The Fed may judge that the liquidity of the financial system has returned from "extremely abundant" to "adequate" levels, and there is no need to continue draining liquidity.
4. Leave room for future policies: Maintaining a larger balance sheet can leave room for the reuse of QE tools in response to future economic crises.

[AI Industry Narrative Tracking]Industry narrative begins to recover.Since August 13, AI narrative has lacked further ca...
11/18/2025

[AI Industry Narrative Tracking]
Industry narrative begins to recover.
Since August 13, AI narrative has lacked further catalysts, as from the token processing narrative proposed in Microsoft's Q1 earnings report to the substantial increase in capital expenditure by the Big 4 in Q2, which pushed the prices of AI hardware/Big 4 to a phased high.
From August 13 to September 7, AI hardware/Big 4 stocks
Overall prices declined (although individual companies, AVGO and NBIS, stood out as bright spots)
point).
But as we have always emphasized, this round of AI narrative has repeated itself
Previously, prices were pushed up - investors' anxiety demanded AI monetization - prices declined
The cycle of decline - investors buying.
Moreover, the concerns of investors in this round are significantly less than those in July 2024
and October 2024 - February 2025.
Starting from September 9, AI narrative began to recover, due to ORCL's better-than-expected performance guidance, NBIS's large order from Microsoft, the catalysis of Goldman Sachs Commu+ Tech Conference, and NVDA's launch of new inference solutions. Considering the considerable upside, some discretionary investors will increase their positions.

[JOLTS Job Openings] Data: 7.18 million in July, 7.35 million in June (revised down from 7.43 million to 7.35 million in...
11/18/2025

[JOLTS Job Openings]
Data: 7.18 million in July, 7.35 million in June (revised down from 7.43 million to 7.35 million in June)
Interpretation: It aligns with the narrative of the continued softening of the labor market, is consistent with the current characteristics of the labor market featuring "low hiring and low firing," and is in line with the risks of this labor market pointed out by Powell at Jackson Hole.
"Overall, although the labor market appears to be in a state of balance, this is a peculiar state of equilibrium caused by a simultaneous and significant slowdown in both labor supply and demand. This unusual situation indicates that the downside risks to employment are rising. And if these risks materialize, they could quickly manifest in the form of a sharp increase in layoffs and a rise in the unemployment rate."
Reinforced expectations of interest rate cuts. Stocks, bonds, and gold assets reacted typically and significantly

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