Manhattan Crypto Capital

Manhattan Crypto Capital Manhattan Crypto Capital (MCC) is a private hedge fund Funds of Funds

Strategy (MSTR) Investment Mandate Capital action: WATCH / NO ACTION. Spot $127.31 is 18.1% above the first acquisition ...
08/31/2026

Strategy (MSTR) Investment Mandate Capital action: WATCH / NO ACTION.

Spot $127.31 is 18.1% above the first acquisition zone at $107.79, so no orders are placed.

Ex*****on plan published: three allocation zones (40/35/25), $45.72 hard stop on a weekly close, weighted cost basis $76.84 at full fill, reward-to-risk 25.5:1, maximum loss 0.81% of book.

Nine ex*****on gates evaluated none passed. Status: CONDITIONAL, NOT ARMED.

Read the full mandate and ex*****on architecture: https://wix.to/AhAbyX6 hashtag hashtag

hashtag hashtag hashtag *****ondiscipline hashtag hashtag hashtag hashtag

Strategy (MSTR) | MCC Quantitative AnalysisMaximum drawdown over three years is 82.6 percent. Peak November 2024, trough...
08/30/2026

Strategy (MSTR) | MCC Quantitative Analysis

Maximum drawdown over three years is 82.6 percent. Peak November 2024, trough June 2026,

583 days down, never recovered, still 73 percent below the peak after 646 days underwater.

Our published hard cap on portfolio drawdown is 25 percent. An asset whose own worst case is more than three times the entire cap does not get sized by conviction.

Three more measurements. Volatility 76.5 percent. Daily 99 percent expected shortfall -12.26 percent. Beta to bitcoin 1.295, but ranging 0.68 to 1.83 on a rolling basis, which

makes it a range and not a parameter.

And the one that stings: over the past year MSTR underperformed its own beta-scaled bitcoin exposure by 26.2 percentage points. Holding the proxy cost money against holding the thing.

So we ran nine sizing methods. Volatility targeting says 13.1 percent of book. CVaR budgeting says 2.0 percent. Same asset, same data, a six-fold spread. The methods that account for the tail govern, and they converge on 1.0 to 2.5 percent.

Small position. Real discipline. The drawdown sets the size, not the return.

Full quantitative analysis, free and unpaywalled: https://www.manhattancrypto.capital/post/mstr-stock-risk-analysis-position-sizing-2026

Allocations shown as percentage weights only. Not investment advice.



Strategy (MSTR) trades at 1.044x book.The premium that justified holding the proxy instead of spot bitcoin has effective...
08/30/2026

Strategy (MSTR) trades at 1.044x book.

The premium that justified holding the proxy instead of spot bitcoin has effectively
closed. Near parity, issuing shares to buy bitcoin stops raising bitcoin per share.

Now look at where our acquisition zones sit. DCA1 $107.79 is 0.884x book. DCA2 $79.88 is
0.655x. DCA3 $50.80 is 0.416x. The whole ladder is below the balance sheet. We do not pay
a premium for a mechanism that has stopped working.

The June low printed at $81.81, which traded through the first zone and stopped 2.42
percent above the second, then reversed. The ladder bracketed the low on its second rung.

The question is no longer bitcoin's direction. It is whether the financing window is open.

Click below to read the full research paper.
https://www.manhattancrypto.capital/post/strategy-mstr-mcc-quantitative-research

Allocations shown as percentage weights only. Not investment advice.
Activate to view larger image,

Inside the hedge, gold is the core.Manhattan Crypto Capital's Commodities engine is not a scattered bet on raw materials...
08/11/2026

Inside the hedge, gold is the core.

Manhattan Crypto Capital's Commodities engine is not a scattered bet on raw materials. It is concentrated in gold at roughly 90% of the sleeve, with silver near 8% and industrial metals near 2%.

The engine is about 7% of invested holdings, inside its 5 to 17% doctrine band. A hedge holds its ground because it is built with intent.

Subscribe to our free institutional research at ManhattanCrypto.Capital

Snapshot: August 11, 2026. Weights are a percentage of invested holdings and subject to change.

For informational purposes only.

This is not investment advice.

IonQ (IONQ) reports Q2 after the close. Before the print, our quantitative desk ran 10,000 Monte Carlo paths, three back...
08/05/2026

IonQ (IONQ) reports Q2 after the close. Before the print, our quantitative desk ran 10,000 Monte Carlo paths, three backtested frameworks, and a full validation of the desk's levels.

MCC Quant Score: 52/100 (Cautious).

The complete 22-section report is on the MCC Research page - https://www.manhattancrypto.capital/post/ionq-stock-quantitative-research-2026

Model research only - not investment advice.

If it happened tomorrow.We ran the current portfolio through the worst market shocks of the last six years. Same crises,...
08/03/2026

If it happened tomorrow.

We ran the current portfolio through the worst market shocks of the last six years. Same crises, applied to what we hold today by weight, measured against a concentrated crypto book.

Crypto Winter 2021 to 2022: an estimated 17% drawdown versus 70%.

COVID-19 crash, 2020: 17% versus 50%.
AI infrastructure selloff, July 2026: 5% versus 22%.

Yen carry unwind, August 2024: 4% versus 18%. The reason is structural, not tactical.

Roughly 64% of invested holdings sit in senior secured credit and treasury, the shock absorber.

About 7% is gold and commodities, which often rise when everything else falls.

Digital assets are deliberately capped near 16% and sized inside a single risk budget.

Same storm. Very different damage.

We hold crypto institutionally. We are not crypto. Our edge is architecture, not prediction.

Subscribe to our free institutional research at ManhattanCrypto.Capital

Illustrative scenario analysis applying approximate historical asset-class moves to current engine weights. First-order estimate, before hedging and rebalancing. Not a prediction or guarantee of results. Snapshot July 31, 2026. Weights are a percentage of invested holdings and subject to change. For informational purposes only. This is not investment advice.

Funds find out how much they can lose after it happens. We prefer to know first.This is a Monte Carlo stress test on our...
08/01/2026

Funds find out how much they can lose after it happens. We prefer to know first.

This is a Monte Carlo stress test on our current portfolio. We ran 10,000 simulated years using each engine's volatility and the low correlation between them, then measured how deep the drawdown gets in every path, including the ugly ones.

Here is what the model shows.

Annual volatility lands near 12 percent. In a typical year the worst drawdown is about 11 percent. In a rough 1 in 20 year it reaches about 20 percent.

Across all 10,000 simulated paths, the deepest drawdown was roughly 40 percent, and even that worst case sits far below what an over-levered, single-theme book can lose.

That is the point of the architecture. We hold volatile assets on purpose, but the risk is budgeted, the leverage is capped, and the drawdowns are modeled before they arrive rather than explained after.

Knowing the shape of your bad year is what lets you stay in the game to see the good ones.

Subscribe to our free institutional research at ManhattanCrypto.Capital and see how we manage risk.
Hypothetical Monte Carlo simulation based on modeled assumptions for the current engine weights. Not a prediction, projection, or guarantee of results.

Snapshot July 31, 2026. Weights are a percentage of invested holdings and subject to change.

For informational purposes only. This is not investment advice.

Situational Awareness, found itself in a major situation! was forced to unwind its public positions after a reported 67...
08/01/2026

Situational Awareness, found itself in a major situation! was forced to unwind its public positions after a reported 67 percent drop, with assets falling from roughly 45 billion to about 10 billion.

Reporting points to leverage of 4x, four times its capital, and a book concentrated in a single theme, AI infrastructure, where both the longs and the hedges fell at the same time.

It is worth saying plainly. The instruments were not the failure. The structure around them was. Leverage and volatility are tools. Whether they build or destroy depends entirely on the architecture that governs them.

At Manhattan Crypto Capital we use volatile assets and disciplined, capped leverage as well. What makes that survivable is the architecture. One quantitative risk budget sits across five non-correlated engines. Leverage is capped and rules-based with kill-switch logic. About 64 percent of invested holdings sit in liquid, senior secured credit and treasury, so the growth engines are funded by a stable base rather than by borrowed conviction.

Drawdown limits are pre-committed and automatic, not a decision made in the moment a position is falling.

We are not writing this to comment on any one firm. We are writing it because it is the clearest lesson our industry has been handed in a while. Risk is not the enemy. Unmanaged risk is.

Subscribe to our free institutional research at manhattancrypto.capital and see how we manage it.

Snapshot July 31, 2026. Third-party figures as reported by financial media.

Weights are a percentage of invested holdings and subject to change. For informational purposes only.

This is not investment advice.

MCC biggest movers across the whole Manhattan Crypto Capital portfolio this week, by percentage.On the upside, AXT, a co...
07/31/2026

MCC biggest movers across the whole Manhattan Crypto Capital portfolio this week, by percentage.

On the upside, AXT, a compound semiconductor maker, led at plus 35.7 percent, followed by Trump Media at plus 22.1 percent and D-Wave Quantum at plus 13.3 percent. On the downside, AI Financial gave back 12.3 percent, Gemini fell 5.6 percent, and Super Micro slipped 5.3 percent.

One point of context that matters. These are the sharpest percentage moves, and each is a small tactical position, well under a fraction of one percent of the book. They are where the volatility showed up this week, not where the portfolio is anchored. That is by design.

The core sits in senior secured credit, and the small satellite positions are sized so a sharp move in any one of them stays a footnote, not a headline.

Subscribe to our free institutional research at ManhattanCrypto.Capital and see every move before we make it.

Snapshot July 31, 2026. Weekly change measured from the July 24 close.
Weights are a percentage of invested holdings and subject to change.

For informational purposes only. This is not investment advice.

People expect Manhattan Crypto Capital to be all crypto. The book says otherwise.By weight, credit and income carry the ...
07/29/2026

People expect Manhattan Crypto Capital to be all crypto. The book says otherwise.

By weight, credit and income carry the majority of the portfolio, roughly two thirds, anchored in senior, AAA-rated structured credit. Everything else runs measured against that base.

This is what capital preservation first looks like in practice. The bulk of the book sits at the top of the capital structure earning yield, so risk gets deployed with intent instead of chased.

Architecture over speculation.

Full breakdown by engine is in the graphic.

Snapshot: July 28, 2026. Weights are a percentage of invested holdings and are subject to change. For informational purposes only. This is not investment advice.

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