The Wellington Group at Morgan Stanley

06/04/2026

AI is poised to reshape gaming and the stakes are bigger than many realize.

In Morgan Stanley's Thoughts on the Market, Matt Cost highlights a few dynamics to watch:
• Attention is the prize: Americans 15+ spend ~22 minutes/day playing games.
• Spend is massive: We expect >$275B of video game consumer spend in 2026.
• AI could compress production costs: Major ("AAA") games can take ~4 years and cost hundreds of millions—AI tools could drive >40% cost savings (often >$100M per game) and about $22B of industry-wide savings.
• But savings may not simply become profits: Competition and reinvestment (including marketing) could shift where value accrues.
• Moats still matter: Strong IP, live operations, data, and distribution may help incumbents; AI may enable new experiences, but "great gameplay" is harder to automate.

Investor question: as AI lowers barriers to creation, which platforms and publishers can defend distribution and engagement and which business models benefit most?

morganstanley.com

06/02/2026

IPO markets are rebuilding in 2026 and the opportunity set looks broader than many expected.
Key trends shaping today's issuance landscape:

• Momentum across sectors with deeper investor engagement
• Demand tied to long-term themes like AI/digital infrastructure and aerospace & defense/space, plus activity well beyond those areas
• A pipeline skewed larger and later-stage, after years of private capital formation
• Financial sponsors remaining a major source of IPO supply
• Retail participation increasingly influencing IPO structure and long-term ownership

Question for investors: as more companies come public, how should new issues fit (or not fit) into a long-term plan?

morganstanley.com

05/29/2026

Today is 529 Day, a great reminder to revisit education planning.

A 529 plan can be a flexible, tax-advantaged way to save for education. Earnings grow tax-deferred, and withdrawals are generally federal income tax-free when used for qualified education expenses like tuition, fees, room and board, books, and supplies.

A few planning points families often overlook:
• 529s can support gifting and estate planning strategies, and many plans have high contribution limits.
• Qualified 529 withdrawals can include eligible K-12 tuition up to $20,000 per beneficiary per year.
• Qualified higher education expenses can include certain apprenticeship program costs and up to $10,000 (lifetime per individual) toward qualified student loans of the beneficiary (or the beneficiary's sibling).
• Depending on the situation, you may be able to roll certain unused 529 funds into a Roth IRA for a designated beneficiary.

There is no one-size-fits-all approach. The right strategy often depends on your family's full financial picture, including balancing education goals with retirement planning.

If you or a friend would like to review your education funding strategy, let's connect.

morganstanley.com

05/26/2026

Join Morgan Stanley thought leaders and strategists for our Midyear Economic & Investment Outlook to explore the key drivers shaping the back half of 2026. Register here: https://livesocial.seismic.com/aCcEQV

05/25/2026

Wishing you all a great Memorial Day! We hope you've had a great weekend, whether it's been spent with family, friends, a backyard BBQ, or simply taking a well-deserved pause.

We'd also like to take a moment to remember and honor those who made the ultimate sacrifice in service to our country, and to recognize the families who carry that loss every day.

05/21/2026

Artificial intelligence and evolving market conditions continue to shape the opportunity set. Alternative investments may help diversify traditional portfolios and generate income, with potential to protect against inflation. Explore the themes: https://livesocial.seismic.com/a3JlVI

05/19/2026

New episode of Thoughts on the Market: "Growth Faces an Energy Test." Seth Carpenter shares our mid-year macro outlook and why oil, AI, and the consumer are at the center of the global narrative.

A few key takeaways:
• We stay constructive on global growth, but the energy shock raises uncertainty by boosting inflation and weighing on activity.
• Our baseline assumes crude returns to ~$90/bbl by end-2026 and declines further in 2027; if disruptions persist, risks skew toward a more severe outcome (including a potential surge through $150/bbl).
• The biggest risk is shifting from a price shock to a volume shock, where shortages and supply chain disruptions can stop production.
• Exposure differs: Europe looks most exposed, China least, with the U.S. in between as consumers feel higher prices even as AI-related capex supports growth.
• Central banks are less accommodative: we expect the Fed on hold through 2026, with potential cuts in 1H27 if inflation cools.

If you follow global macro, it's a useful listen heading into 2H26.

morganstanley.com

05/10/2026

Happy Birthday to Mott! From all of us, we truly value everything you do and appreciate your continued dedication and impact.

05/10/2026

Happy Mother's Day from the Wellington Group! We want to take a moment to celebrate the strength, love, and care that mothers and mother-figures bring to the world. Today, we honor all moms, expecting moms, foster moms, should-be moms, step-moms, grand moms, and moms in heaven. Thank you for the impact you make each day.

05/06/2026

AI headlines tend to swing between "productivity boom" and "mass job losses." In Morgan Stanley's recent Thoughts on the Market episode, our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter looks past the hype and asks a more practical question: can the economy adapt fast enough for AI to boost productivity without creating a labor market shock?

A few takeaways that stood out:
- So far, broad labor market indicators show remarkably little disruption, even as AI adoption spreads.
- Early productivity gains in more AI exposed industries appear driven more by faster output growth than by fewer hours worked.
- The pace of adoption has real world constraints. Of the more than $3T in expected data center and related infrastructure CapEx (2025 to 2028), only about a quarter has been deployed so far.
- The central risk is speed. Job destruction could outpace job creation as AI diffuses faster than prior innovation waves.
- The story is not predetermined, and policy responses (monetary and fiscal) can act as buffers if employment slows.

Worth a listen if you're thinking about how AI could shape growth, inflation, and employment over the next couple of years: "AI and Jobs: What Data and History Say."

morganstanley.com