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Seven weeks after three officials dissented in favor of a rate hike, Kevin Warsh's Fed delivered it 12–0.At his first Fe...
10/10/2026

Seven weeks after three officials dissented in favor of a rate hike, Kevin Warsh's Fed delivered it 12–0.

At his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting as chair, in June, the committee held rates unanimously at 3.50%–3.75%. He shortened the policy statement. He also declined to submit his own rate projection to the dot plot, the chart of each official's expected rate path.

In July, the committee held again, and three members dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. At his press conference, Warsh said: "I asked for a good family fight, and I got one."

On September 16, the committee raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, the first increase since July 2023. His explanation: "inflation is too high and has been for too long."

There are two ways to read that 12–0 vote.

One: a chair who invited open dissent built a committee that can argue in public and still close ranks on a decision.

The other: the July dissenters asked for the hike first, and the majority took seven weeks to reach their position.

The October 27–28 meeting is the first chance to separate them. If dissent returns and the majority holds its view, with Warsh explaining the split openly, that supports the first reading. If the majority again ends up where its dissenters started, that supports the second.

For companies, the practical change is that Warsh gives no explicit forward guidance. Boards can no longer count on the chair to signal the next decision before they refinance or buy back stock.

In the management teams we assess, we check whether capital allocation plans assume rates stay higher for longer. Plans that rely on the Fed to warn them first are now exposed.

Do you read September's 12–0 as Warsh's committee working as designed, or as a majority catching up to its hawks?

MongoDB lost its CEO one day before Investor Day.That timing is what caught my attention.Chirantan “CJ” Desai stepped do...
10/08/2026

MongoDB lost its CEO one day before Investor Day.

That timing is what caught my attention.

Chirantan “CJ” Desai stepped down effective immediately to join Meta. MongoDB reaffirmed its financial guidance. Its products hadn't changed. Its customer contracts hadn't changed.

The stock still fell about 18%.

The board responded by bringing Dev Ittycheria back as interim CEO. He knows the company better than almost anyone, having led MongoDB for 11 years and scaled revenue from roughly $35 million to more than $2.3 billion.

That gives the company continuity.

But it doesn't erase the signal.

Investor Days are supposed to be when management asks shareholders to underwrite the next several years. Instead, MongoDB explained why the executive expected to lead that future was suddenly gone.

How much of MongoDB's valuation was attached to the business, and how much was attached to the person expected to deliver it?

Jensen Huang was handed the phrase investors are trained to distrust.Asked by Axios co-founder Mike Allen in July whethe...
10/07/2026

Jensen Huang was handed the phrase investors are trained to distrust.

Asked by Axios co-founder Mike Allen in July whether the AI chip boom was due for a bust, Huang said no, not for a while. Allen gave him a way out: "So this time is different?" Huang turned the phrase around instead.

"This time is different because this is not demand-driven. This is industrially driven, meaning the fundamental technology of computers is changing."

That phrase has preceded many of the market dislocations of the past century.

Then the quarter landed. NVIDIA reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year, with data center revenue of $89 billion, up 117%. Third-quarter guidance came in at $108 billion, and that outlook assumes no China data center compute revenue at all.

CFO Colette Kress gave the spending numbers behind the claim. Capital spending by the top five customers is tracking toward roughly $800 billion in 2026 and $1.3 trillion in 2027. Cloud-provider backlogs already under contract run to about $2 trillion.

Kress's 2026 figure sits about $200 billion above consensus.

Committed spending on that scale is the strongest version of Huang's argument, and it has one gap. Every one of those figures measures promised spending. None measures what the spending earns.

At Eagle Talon we weigh a leader's stated thesis against three measures. The capital allocation record behind it, the incentive design that rewards it, and how precisely that leader talks about returns. On the first two, Huang has put roughly $279 billion of Nvidia's own supply commitments behind the same view, mostly memory for Vera Rubin. On the third, he's specific about why the demand exists and he hasn't named a timeline on which the spending pays back.

When a cloud provider finally publishes a return figure on the compute it already bought, does Nvidia's $279 billion look early or exposed?

The first stop for $124 trillion of inherited wealth is not the next generation.Cerulli projects that total moving throu...
10/06/2026

The first stop for $124 trillion of inherited wealth is not the next generation.

Cerulli projects that total moving through 2048, including $105 trillion to heirs and $18 trillion to charity. But $54 trillion will pass to spouses first.

Nearly $40 trillion of that will land with widowed women in the Baby Boomer and older cohorts before it moves again. Most of the commentary I have read on this transfer skips that stop.

Roughly $62 trillion of the total, more than half, comes from households that are already high-net-worth or ultra-high-net-worth. Those households are 2% of all households.

A transfer that is concentrated moves through a small number of families, each making its own decision about what to keep.

For public companies, those decisions reach the shareholder base one block at a time. An heir who inherits a position often evaluates the management team from scratch. The patience a prior holder built over years rarely transfers with the shares.

Watch the holder lists. When a twenty-year stake turns over within two or three years of an estate settling, the relationship was doing the work, not the business.

At Eagle Talon, we build the case on a management team long before we need to act. That work covers board preparation, the capital allocation record, and the incentive design behind both. It is what lets us size a position decisively when the price moves. It is also what lets us hold one through a drawdown, because the case never rested on anyone's memory of a good meeting.

Which management team on your watchlist would lose its most patient shareholders the moment those shares change hands?

Boards are backing away from first-time chief executives.Russell Reynolds counted 77 incoming CEOs globally in the first...
10/03/2026

Boards are backing away from first-time chief executives.

Russell Reynolds counted 77 incoming CEOs globally in the first quarter of 2026. Of those, 26% had already run a public company, up from 17% a year earlier. Average outgoing tenure over the same period rose to 10 years, from 6.6.

Those appointments follow 234 departures in 2025, up 16% year-over-year and 21% above the eight-year average. 2025 was the second consecutive year turnover set a record.

Boards may be holding on to leaders longer and then reaching for someone who has carried the job before. Or a cohort of long-tenured chief executives reached the end at once, and boards de-risked what came next. Either way, boards have less tolerance for an unproven leader.

At Eagle Talon, we have tracked more than 50 large-cap US transitions since January. They already split on board preparation, leader fit, and incentive design.

J.P. Morgan named Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh co-presidents in June and put $30 million of stock behind each. The stock vests after three years only if the bank averages at least 12% return on tangible common equity across 2026, 2027 and 2028. The contest is public and measured against a number.

lululemon named Heidi O'Neill on September 8. Founder Chip Wilson opposed the choice publicly and analysts called her an out-of-left-field pick. The shares fell about 15% over the next five trading days. Several forces moved that stock at once. The selection itself is what the board controlled.

Watch ConocoPhillips. Ryan Lance stayed on as executive chair in a transitional role. So Andy O'Brien took the seat with his predecessor still holding formal governance authority. If that role is still in place a year from now, the board hedged its own pick.

Of Ternus, O'Brien and O'Neill, whose first earnings call tells you the most about the board that chose them?

J.P. Morgan posted its best quarter on record five days after the board changed the senior leadership.The board named Do...
10/01/2026

J.P. Morgan posted its best quarter on record five days after the board changed the senior leadership.

The board named Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh co-presidents on June 25. The quarter closed on June 30. So the quarter is the baseline they inherit, not a result they produced.

It is a flattering baseline. Second-quarter managed revenue was $58.0 billion, up 27% year-over-year, with every line of business setting a record. Reported earnings were $7.70 a share on net income of $21.2 billion and a 29% return on tangible common equity (ROTCE). Excluding significant items, that is $6.14 a share and 23% ROTCE. Roughly a fifth of the reported figure came from items that will not repeat.

Each co-president received $30 million in restricted stock units that vest in a single block after three years. They vest only if JPMorgan averages at least 12% ROTCE across 2026, 2027 and 2028. Net shares stay locked a further two years. Mary Erdoes and Jennifer Piepszak received $20 million on identical terms.

Four senior executives, one metric, one window. That structure suggests a board building a comparison rather than filling two seats.

Petno takes the Commercial and Investment Bank outright. Rohrbaugh takes Consumer and Community Banking from Marianne Lake, who is retiring after more than 25 years. Each now owns a result the other cannot claim.

At Eagle Talon, we read a succession like this on three dimensions: board preparation, the fit between each leader and the challenge they inherit, and what the incentive design rewards.

On incentive design, the 12% hurdle sits far below the 23% the firm reported this quarter. That gap suggests the board is pricing durability across a cycle rather than a repeat of the peak.

Preparation and fit are less settled. Each has run one domain well. Neither has run the whole firm.

If the choice narrows before 2028, which record would you weight more heavily: the corporate and investment bank, or the consumer bank?

An ethics investigation cost Chris Kubasik the Lockheed Martin top job before L3Harris ever hired him.On August 17, L3Ha...
09/30/2026

An ethics investigation cost Chris Kubasik the Lockheed Martin top job before L3Harris ever hired him.

On August 17, L3Harris Technologies said he was leaving immediately as chairman and chief executive. The board had become aware of conduct “not consistent with the values of the Company,” it said, and investigated with independent counsel. It said the matter was unrelated to financial reporting, controls, customer relationships or operational performance.

Semafor reported, citing two people briefed on the inquiry, that Kubasik had an inappropriate relationship with an employee. Through a spokesperson he denied that and said it was not the reason he left. L3Harris has not commented on the report.

The stock fell about 4% that day, with guidance reaffirmed.

In November 2012 Lockheed Martin’s board “asked for and received” his resignation. Its ethics investigation had confirmed a close personal relationship with a subordinate. He had been chosen as its next chief executive.

That history was public when the predecessor company, L3, hired him in October 2015. He was promoted to chief executive in 2021 and named chairman in 2022. L3Harris has not linked the two matters.

He receives no severance and forfeits his unvested equity. Lead independent director Lewis Hay III became independent chairman.

Sam Mehta was promoted to president and chief executive the same day. He ran two segments, more than 80% of revenue.

Operating depth is demonstrated. Corporate capital allocation is not. He inherits a Missile Solutions IPO the company paused in July and may revisit in mid-2027 or later.

At Eagle Talon we map what a board knew before the hire, how it designed authority after, and what it paid for.

The board investigated and acted. What a known history should change is the willingness to hand one executive both the chairman and chief executive titles. L3Harris separated them on the way out, not on the way in.

What should the board have required before combining them in 2022?



Note: This image contains AI-generated elements.

Adobe promoted the executive furthest from its creative franchise.The executive closest to it is leaving.On September 3,...
09/29/2026

Adobe promoted the executive furthest from its creative franchise.

The executive closest to it is leaving.

On September 3, the board named Anil Chakravarthy president and chief executive, effective December 1. Shantanu Narayen, chief executive since 2007, will become executive chair.

The same day, David Wadhwani said on LinkedIn that he’s leaving. He ran the creativity and productivity business, which includes Creative Cloud, for nearly five years. He had been considered for the top job.

Chakravarthy joined Adobe in January 2020 to run its marketing software business, Digital Experience, then added field operations. Before that he spent four years as chief executive of Informatica LLC, a cloud data management company.

The search ran nearly six months and looked outside. The board elevated its enterprise software leader anyway and kept Narayen above him with an executive title. I read that as continuity at the top and a creative franchise losing its leader underneath it.

Two risks come with the choice.

First: Chakravarthy has run a large business inside Adobe, never Adobe itself. Informatica was roughly a tenth of Adobe’s size.

Second: Adobe still has no permanent chief financial officer. Dan Durn left on June 15 for Marvell Technology, and interim finance chief Steve Day presented third-quarter results on September 10. Chakravarthy either starts with a search or inherits a finance chief chosen under Narayen.

Figma is still an independent competitor because Adobe’s $20 billion bid for it failed under Narayen. He is staying.

At Eagle Talon we test a chief executive’s operating record, capital allocation history and governance position against the job ahead. His record is in building and selling enterprise software. On capital allocation and the creative franchise, he’s untested.

Watch who takes Wadhwani’s seat, and who picks them.

If Creative Cloud is the franchise under threat, is Chakravarthy the leader you would have put in front of it?



Note: This image contains AI-generated elements.

Howard Buffett's culture focus adds a buyback consultation.On September 18, Berkshire Hathaway's board elected him Chair...
09/28/2026

Howard Buffett's culture focus adds a buyback consultation.

On September 18, Berkshire Hathaway's board elected him Chairman. Warren Buffett, Chairman since 1970, became Chairman Emeritus. He stays a director with 30.2% of the vote as of March 4th: a formal seat with influence, not a clean exit. Greg Abel remains CEO.

Warren's letter: "Greg runs the company; Howard will guard its culture and values." Howard: "I won't be running the company as a non-executive chairman."

Berkshire's filings add a capital allocation role. Since a 2025 amendment, the CEO buys back stock he judges below intrinsic value, "after consultation with the Chairman of the Board." How much that consultation weighs isn't disclosed.

Buybacks resumed in March 2026 after none in 2025 and ran about $4.5 billion in Q2. Warren was the Chairman consulted. Now it's Howard.

Abel's operating record is shown: ten years running Berkshire Hathaway Energy, then eight over all non-insurance businesses. He closed the $6.8 billion Taylor Morrison acquisition on July 24. Still open: how he deploys capital when markets fall.

Howard, a director since 1993, is untested on the culture mandate. He is 71, and no successor for the chair has been disclosed.

Class B shares closed up 0.11% on September 18, as SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, rose 0.13%. The following Monday, Class B fell 1.52% while SPY rose 1.55%. No source ties that gap to Howard; I read no verdict on him yet.

At Eagle Talon, we map who holds the capital levers, what each leader has done with it, and which mandates are written down. The buyback consultation is in the 10-K. The governance guidelines give the chair the board agenda and are silent on culture.

The fourth quarter will be the first full quarter of buybacks with Howard consulted.

What should Howard say when Abel next tells him Berkshire stock is below intrinsic value?

Goldman Sachs’ record quarter came from the businesses David Solomon never had to fix.Second-quarter net revenues, repor...
09/26/2026

Goldman Sachs’ record quarter came from the businesses David Solomon never had to fix.

Second-quarter net revenues, reported in July, hit $20.34 billion, up 39% year-over-year. Earnings per share of $20.98, also a record. Return on equity 23.5%, return on tangible equity 25.5%.

Investment banking fees rose 55% to $3.40 billion, and the backlog, by the CFO’s account, reached a five-year high.

But the largest revenue line was equities trading at $7.42 billion, up 72%. Fixed income, currencies and commodities added $4.59 billion, up 32%.

Trading and banking are the businesses Solomon inherited working. Consumer banking is the one he expanded and then had to unwind.

In January 2023 he conceded Goldman had tried to do “too much, too quickly” in consumer banking. He wound down consumer lending, kept the deposit business, and returned the capital to the institutional businesses.

Meanwhile the cycle turned. Mergers and acquisitions came back, and the AI build-out is pulling enormous capital through the capital markets.

Most of that record likely belongs to the cycle. What Solomon owns is the decision that kept capital behind trading and banking before the cycle arrived.

Solomon said the AI build-out “won’t be a straight line” while reporting a record. That suggests a plan that already assumes some of this quarter’s revenue gives back.

The consumer expansion was a mistake, and the criticism was warranted. Markets price visible mistakes quickly. Repairs often surface years later, after the narrative has moved on.

At Eagle Talon we map a leader’s capital allocation record, the authority they hold, and their fit to the challenge in front of them.

The test comes the first time equities gives back a large share of that 72%. If investment banking fees and asset and wealth management revenue hold up in that quarter, the repair was structural.

When that quarter comes, what would Goldman need to show you before you credit Solomon rather than the cycle?



Note: This image contains AI-generated elements.

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