09/05/2013
Recent volatility in the US Stock market has caused one of the primary risk indicators utilized by the advisors at Edward J. Sabo & Associates- Wealth Partners to suggest Wealth Preservation Strategies be deployed.
The NYSE Bullish Percent Index measures the percentage of individual stocks which are advancing on their respective point and figure charts. Recording this activity provides a measure of participation among the constituents within a market. A large number of advancing (Bullish) stocks will naturally provide the strength a market needs to reach higher levels while a large number of declining issues can limit forward progress, or worse, signal the beginning of a new downtrend.
Over the past decade and a half, I have come to really respect this indicator for its simplicity and straightforward guidance. In Economics 101, I learned that “the more people willing to buy a given amount of widgets - the higher the widgets price will go”. The NYSE Bullish Percent Index is currently telling us that not as many people are willing to pay up for stocks at these levels. This reality suggests a higher probability that our “stock widgets” might go on sale in an effort to attract more buyers or prices have simply gotten a little ahead of themselves and need to pause before moving higher.
Recognizing the long term bullish trend is still intact for domestic equities and understanding that no single indicator can tell you what is going to happen next, I recommend using this warning to refocus your efforts on managing risk. The following strategies could offer potential benefits should one wish to begin positioning their portfolio more defensively:
1) Review your individual positions to see if they still meet your criteria for investment
2) Invest in sectors or broad indexes instead of individual stocks
3) Set “Stop Loss” points you are comfortable adhering to
4) Take profits out of the markets
5) Sell down to a level you feel comfortable with
6) Consider various hedging strategies and their associated costs and potential benefits
Please understand that no strategy can completely eliminate risk and the ideas mentioned above may not be suitable for every investor. Should you wish to discuss any of the items mentioned here in further detail, please feel free to contact me @ (843) 651-2030.
Edward J. Sabo
President- EJSA
Financial Advisor-RJFS
Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss, including the loss of all principal. Specific sector investments, where companies engage in business related to a particular industry, like Technology, are subject to fierce competition, the possibility of their products and services being subject to rapid obsolescence and limited diversification. One cannot invest directly in an index. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the developments referred to in this material and do not constitute a recommendation.
Any opinions are those of Edward J Sabo and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James.