Kisco Capital - Investment Management

04/06/2024

New Blog Post! The Fed’s narrative is shifting as strong jobs and sticky inflation may keep policy changes on the sideline.

The Final Countdown April 6, 2024April 6, 2024 Paul McCarthy High drama this week as some of the Fed’s committee members are commenting that rate cuts may not be necessary given the stubborn inflation and the strength of the jobs market. The speaking circuits were busy this week and some of the ha...

02/03/2024

https://kiscocap.com/2024/02/03/march-rate-cut-scrapped/

New Blog Post! The Fed scrapped this rate cut as the economy is too strong to assume inflation is dead.

March Rate Cut Scrapped February 3, 2024February 3, 2024 Paul McCarthy The Fed released its policy statement on Wednesday with no change to rates, as expected. However, the presser was more revealing as Powell said that a March cut was not going to happen. A very frank statement that you rarely get....

12/16/2023

New Blog Post! My take on the dot-plot and the forward path of interest rates. Will there be a recession?

Connecting the Dots December 16, 2023December 16, 2023 Paul McCarthy An eventful week in the markets as the Fed announcement on Wednesday provided an unexpected surprise with regard to their expected forward path of interest rates. If you don’t know, the Fed releases a dot-plot graph in their poli...

11/29/2023

11/11/2023

https://kiscocap.com/2023/11/11/outlook-negative/

New Blog Post! A Powell speech and a Moody’s downgrade spiced up an uneventful week. My thoughts in this week’s post. $SPY $SPX $ES $TLT $TNX

Outlook Negative November 11, 2023November 11, 2023 Paul McCarthy Media Appearance: I was on the Schwab Network this week to discuss the earnings of Walt Disney and Warner Brothers Discovery and you can see the hit HERE. It was a relatively uneventful week until we got a speech from Fed Chair Powell...

11/09/2023

Thanks to and for my appearance yesterday to discuss $DIS and $WBD!

Warner Bros. Discovery’s (WBD) 3Q adjusted EPS came in at -$0.17 versus an estimated -$0.12 and its revenue came in at $9.98B versus an estimated $9.94B. Paul McCarthy discusses WBD along with Disney (DIS). DIS’s 4Q adjusted EPS is estimated at $0.67 and its revenue is estimated...

10/28/2023

New Blog Post! More bond sales are on tap as Wednesday's Treasury refunding announcement and quantitative tightening pressure the bond markets. My comments in this week's blog post.

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https://kiscocap.com/2023/10/28/more-bonds-for-sale/

More Bonds for Sale October 28, 2023October 28, 2023 Paul McCarthy The next stop on the Fed’s train to lower inflation is this Wednesday where interest rates will stay unchanged. Unfortunately, the inflation data has been sticky including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) that was releas...

10/18/2023

My post on the bond market and how higher yields pressure the stock market.

An intense week with a second war raging in Israel which adds to the uncertainty swirling around the financial markets. Will this war be quick? Will it draw in more countries? Will it be drawn out as in the Ukraine? The government of Israel declared war so this is not a conflict or a skirmish

09/23/2023

New Blog Post! Connect the Dots - A significant change in the dot-plot may cause equities to re-price.

Connecting The Dots September 23, 2023September 23, 2023 Paul McCarthy The Fed held their policy meeting on Wednesday and kept rates unchanged which was expected. However, their forward guidance changed significantly when reviewing their dot-plot which is a survey of each voting member’s projectio...

12/07/2022

My appearance today on the TD Ameritrade show with Oliver Renick!

AutoZone (AZO) achieved record sales of $16.3B in fiscal 2022, says Paul McCarthy. He discusses AZO as its earnings were released December 6th, premarket. He also talks about how its 1Q same-store sales were up 5.6%. He also notes that AZO bought back 932,000 shares for $900M in 1Q. He also...

10/29/2022

New Blog Post on the Earnings Carnage and the pre-Fed technicals.

I made an appearance on the TD Ameritrade Network recently to discuss earnings for American Express and energy company Schlumberger that you can see by

01/09/2022

New Post on the yield curve and the potential for a top developing:

This year will be about the interplay between stocks and rising bond yields and we are off to a good start. Inflation has forced the Fed's hand as the