Crystal Clear Mortgage

10/28/2026

MARKET UPDATE 10/2/2026

Key Points
• FOMC is widely expected to hold rates at 3.75%–4.00% at today’s meeting, with dissents expected from Hammack, Logan, and Kashkari in favor of a 25bp hike. The market will be focused on Warsh’s press conference and will look for clues on if December’s rate hike is as firm as the market is expecting (~85% of hike priced in).
• Oil rose on reports that the US has told Persian Gulf nations to prepare for a short, intense campaign against Iran after the midterms. President Trump is leaning toward a large post-election strike but has not reached a final decision.
• New home sales fell 0.6% in September to a 676k annualized pace, beating the 651k estimate, while the median price fell 3.9% y/y to $400k. Homebuilder confidence is at a 14-year low and sales are being held up by concessions rather than demand.

October FOMC Meeting Preview:
At today’s FOMC, the Fed is widely expected to hold rates at 3.75%–4.00% (markets currently pricing in a 9% probability of a hike), and voting members Hammack, Logan, and Kashkari are expected to dissent in favor of a 25bp hike. The statement is expected to retain language that inflation “remains elevated” along with the commitment to a “timelier return” to 2%, preserving a tightening bias without committing to a date. The more consequential question is December, where markets have roughly 85% of a hike priced in and most participants in September saw another increase as justified by year end.
Since last FOMC several things have changed. The AI trade has sold off and credit spreads on AI-linked companies have widened, which does some of the Fed’s tightening work without a rate move. July minutes showed roughly six or seven participants already flagging how the AI buildout is being financed, with about three noting that capex is increasingly debt-funded, including from nonbanks and regional banks. The economic data also softened the case: payrolls rose just 29k in September with 60k shaved off the prior two months, unemployment ticked up 0.1pp, and a 36bp downward revision to August core PCE means the year-end core print will likely undershoot the 3.4% the median participant projected. Warsh’s own preferred measure, the share of PCE components running above 3%, is estimated to have fallen to 48% on a 12-month basis from 52%. The tell will be how Warsh characterizes financial conditions at the press conference: shrugging off the AI correction keeps December live, while framing it as a financial-stability concern points to a hold through year end.

Middle East Risk:
Escalation risk is building in the Middle East around the midterms. The Wall Street Journal reported the US has told several Persian Gulf nations to prepare for a short, intense campaign against Iran, with Trump leaning toward a large post-election attack but not having decided. A third US carrier group has been sent toward the Gulf, and Trump said over the weekend it is “getting to be decision time” on whether there is a deal or a renewed assault. Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure continue, including a fire near Ras Tanura, the kingdom’s largest oil-export terminal, early Tuesday, which was contained with damage unclear. Brent traded near $115 and WTI above $101, with Brent now close to double where it started the year. It’s worth noting that the futures move has run ahead of the physical market: plenty of oil continues to leave the Persian Gulf and underlying physical indicators have been soft, with API reporting US crude stockpiles down 2 million barrels last week.

September New Home Sales:
New single-family home sales fell 0.6% in September to a 676k annualized rate, above the 651k consensus. The median price fell 3.9% y/y to $400k, the seventh month out of nine this year with a y/y price decline. Mortgage rates rose roughly half a point during the month and have eased only slightly since, and homebuilder confidence sits at its lowest level in 14 years. The regional split was weak where it matters most, with the South, the largest selling region, down 6.6% to 413k annualized, and the Midwest also falling, offset by gains in the West and Northeast. Inventory came down slowly, with 476k new homes for sale, down 2.3% y/y, representing 8.4 months of supply, the lowest this year but still well above pre-pandemic levels. The headline beat is less encouraging than it looks: price cuts and subsidized rate buydowns are doing the work rather than underlying demand, which leaves builders exposed if concessions get more expensive.

10/27/2026

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10/22/2026

Good news on the horizon?

Potential Mortgage Executive Order:

The Trump administration has drafted, but not signed, an executive order aimed at reducing mortgage costs. The most consequential items are on the refi side. The draft directs FHFA to waive appraisals, income reverification, and other documentation on refis that lower a borrower’s monthly payment, and to reduce or eliminate LLPAs and other GSE fees on those transactions, with savings required to be passed through to borrowers and disclosed to them. It would also make Fannie Mae’s 2024 title waiver pilot a permanent nationwide program with additional certified providers and evaluate extending eligibility above the current 80% LTV threshold. The order would also direct Fannie and Freddie to use AVMs and property data to proactively identify borrowers eligible to cancel PMI and require servicers to notify them and would direct USDA and VA to lower rates on loans they originate directly. On supply, it establishes a Task Force on Manufactured Housing Innovation co-chaired by HUD and FHFA, due to deliver recommendations within 180 days, including whether federal housing grants can be conditioned on state and local permitting reform. It is unclear when or if the draft order will be signed.

10/16/2026

MARKET UPDATE 10/16/2026

Key Points
- Producer prices (PPI) jumped 1.3% in September, more than double the 0.6% estimate
- Jobless claims came in at 199k, right in line with expectations
- Fed Chair Warsh declined to signal an October move, and markets read that as a likely hold

Producer Prices
The Producer Price Index (PPI) tracks what businesses pay for the goods and services they use, which makes it an early warning for consumer inflation. September's reading was a big one. Headline PPI rose 1.3% for the month, against an estimate of 0.6%, and is now up 6.3% over the past year, against an estimate of 5.4%.

Why it matters: when business costs rise this sharply, companies often pass them on to consumers. That keeps inflation elevated and makes it harder for the Fed to lower rates, which is bad news for mortgage rates.

Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims, the weekly count of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, came in at 199k. That was in line with the 200k estimate and barely changed from the prior week's 197k. Very few people are losing their jobs, which points to a still-strong labor market. A strong job market tends to keep upward pressure on mortgage rates.

Fed Speak
Two regional Fed presidents voiced growing concern about inflation Thursday. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that repeated supply shocks, like rising energy costs from overseas conflicts, could lead businesses and consumers to expect higher prices as the new normal. That makes inflation much harder to control. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she has "absolutely" changed her view from six months ago, when she was willing to look past supply-driven inflation. She is now less convinced the Fed can simply wait it out.
This morning, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at the IMF's annual meetings in Bangkok. He would not say what the Fed will do at its October meeting: "I don't prejudge meetings... It's a new chapter at the Fed, and we're not in that business anymore." He was optimistic that AI-driven productivity gains could help moderate inflation over the medium term, and said the global economy is showing "more resilience than expected."
Markets took his silence on hikes as a sign the Fed is likely to hold at the October meeting, which eased some fears of back-to-back hikes. That is a small positive for rates, but this week's PPI print shows why the Fed is not out of the woods on inflation.

Looking Ahead
Next week is a light on the economic calendar but expect some market movement as we approach the midterm elections. The next Fed meeting begins on 10/27.

10/14/2026

WHAT A DAY! Just shows you how unpredictable this market is. However, not to throw cold water, the recent 2-week rally certainly found a floor today. Approach a rate lock as a defensive stance against a crazy market. Ask your lender if they offer a rate float down before you lock in.

HINT...we do!

936-447-LOAN

You won't see too many days like today when it comes to mortgage rates and the underlying bond market that drives them. Bonds were eagerly awaiting this morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key inflation report and an important source of guidance for the Fed rate outlook.  Remind...

10/14/2026

CPI, or a key inflation measure, has just come in MUCH HOTTER than expected. Meaning that the higher fuel costs are finally trickling down to the consumer. We always knew it would lag, but here it is. Bond markets are selling off. Mortgage rates WILL be worse today. When, if, fuel prices come down there will also be a lag for inflation to come down as well. Translation? We are entering the official "higher for longer" phase for mortgage rates...

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in the prices
paid by urban consumers for a fixed market basket of goods and services. The CPI
is based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuel, drugs, transportation
fares, doctors and dentists fees, and other goods and services that people buy
for day-to-day living. The quantity and quality of these items are kept
essentially unchanged between major revisions so that only price changes will be
measured. All taxes directly associated with the purchase and use of items are
included in the index.

10/12/2026

September Houston Market Update

• Prices: The median was $337,000. That’s down 0.9% from Sep ‘25 ($340,000) and down 2.3% from August ($345,000). The trend line slopes down about $63 a month, so it’s flat to slightly lower. The peak is still Jun ‘25 at $365,000.
• Sales: There were 3,509 closings, down 10.9% from a year ago and down 2.8% from August. Year to date (Jan–Sep), sales are 34,055 against 36,644 last year, down 7.1%. Sep ‘25 sales were 3,937.
• Inventory: Active listings were 23,943, up 21.2% from a year ago. Months of inventory rose from 5.0 to 6.8, its highest since January. That’s moving toward a buyer’s market.
• Days on market: 48 days, the same as Sep ‘25 but up from 39 in August. It’s the third month in a row of increases after the spring low.
• Sale-to-list price: Closing price was 95.1% of original list price, up from 94.1% a year ago. So listings are piling up, but sellers who do close are giving up slightly less on price.
• New construction: 600 sales, down 26.4% from a year ago. That’s 17% of all sales, down from 21%, while resales fell only 6.8%.

10/09/2026

🏠 Columbus Day Office Closure 🇺🇸

Please note that our office will be closed in observance of Columbus Day.

Even though our doors will be closed, we're still here for our clients and referral partners. We will be monitoring emails and available on our cell phones throughout the day.

If you need anything, don't hesitate to reach out. We're always happy to help!

Wishing everyone a safe and happy holiday. 🇺🇸

10/07/2026

I'll ask again...Where is the U.S. Treasury Department/FOMC? 7 things driving the recent surge in the bond (mortgage rate) market...

1) AI capex is extreme and that's soaking up available dollars. Today, SpaceX announced another $40 billion for Nvidia chips.
2) The US fiscal picture is nowhere close to sustainability and there are no credible Congressional voices pushing in that direction.
3) Trump's promise of $5000 checks isn't going anywhere but that kind of talk undermines any future pushes towards fiscal restraint, if anything, the opposite
4) US military adventurism is expensive
5) The Iran and Ukraine wars are in costly stalemates that will continue to push inflation higher until they end
6) The Fed appears to be determined to do the minimum it can to credibly fight inflation, which risks putting them behind the curve
7) The market may be seeing AI as inherently destabilizing fiscally and politically, opeing a pandora's box of costly social supports and creating turmoil.

US 10-year yields up 8 basis points to 5.34%, long bonds to the highest since 2002

09/29/2026

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose to 7.58% today--the highest since November 1st, 2023. In this sense, mortgage rates are doing much better than their often-cited benchmark, the 10yr Treasury yield, which is the highest level since 2007. That's because mortgage rates are directly based on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and not U.S. Treasuries, and MBS have been outperforming Treasuries relative to 2023's. So yes, you can watch the 10 year yield, but that is not a guaranteed lock step movement.

Mortgage rates moved higher again on Tuesday as the bond market continues recalibrating expectations for Fed policy, economic growth, and inflation. The weakness is especially frustrating considering a fairly large drop in oil prices today, but as we discussed yesterday, rates have a lot more on the...