05/02/2022
Happy !
It's fair to say that April made it easier to find reasons for concern than hints of optimism.
Still, I take the view that the headwinds we've faced so far in 2022 represent discomfort masking long-term opportunity and a fundamentally resilient economy.
That said, it's wise to acknowledge the prevailing pessimisms:
- The U.S. gross domestic product shrank in the first quarter.
- Inflation remains high.
- There is no clear end to the Russia-Ukraine war.
- Each major market index was down for the month.
As the markets are forward-looking, we would be equally remiss to ignore the good news underneath:
- Measures of domestic demand are strong, and consumer savings are higher than ever.
- Month-over-month inflation in April is expected to be milder, lowering the year-over-year inflation rate.
- Supply chain data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York suggests an easing of disruptions.
- First quarter corporate earnings growth was generally strong.
- Corporate savings are empowering shareholder-friendly policies.
Meanwhile, all eyes are on the U.S. Federal Reserve. If the wave of inflation doesn't break, the interest rate-setting committee may feel additional pressure to stabilize prices with the tool at its disposal, which could cost economic growth.
The bottom line: In the near term, volatility will likely remain elevated. However, these concerns may be fully priced into the market already.
Meanwhile, there is evidence suggesting some of the largest headwinds will ease this year, presenting opportunities to long-term investors.
As always, the market and the world remain in flux and I'm here to support you to navigate these conditions together.