04/13/2023
If you're curious what mortgage rates are going to do in 2023 (whether you're thinking of buying or you're just curious)....
I don't have the answers. No one really does. But there is a way that you can objectively tell what lenders - the people who live or die by the accuracy of their predictions on mortgage rates - what they think will happen with rates.
Lenders don't just offer one rate at any given time. They offer a range of rates. If you take a rate above the "par" rate, they will give you a credit to your closing costs. Or you can get a rate below the par rate if you're willing to pay the lender a certain additional amount up front.
Normally, lenders price their rates so that you won't break even until around 4.5-5 years. Because they know that in normal times, people tend to refinance by about 5 years into their loan. So, they won't actually start losing money.
But right now, lenders are pricing their rates such that in some cases (not all), it would take borrowers *less than a year* to break even on buying the rate down. That's very unusual for lenders to do. That's also not a universal statement that it's wise to pay points on your mortgage right now.
But why are lenders pricing their rates like that? Because they are so confident that most people getting a mortgage right now will likely be refinancing again in the very near future... because they think rates are coming down in the very near future.
That doesn't mean they're right. It's just a way to objectively figure out what the experts think is going to happen.
Paraphrased and plagiarized from my dad in a recent video on his YouTube channel (Mortgage Mastery Theater).