09/03/2021
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that were 235,000 jobs created in August, which was much weaker than the 750,000 EXPECTED! There were 134,000 in positive revisions to June and July combined, which makes this miss look slightly better. The Unemployment Rate decreased from 5.4% to 5.2%. The unemployment rate is derived from the household survey, which has its own job creation component. Within the household survey there were 509,000 job creations, while the labor force increased by 190,000. The number of unemployed people decreased by 318,000, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.2%. There was a misclassification error that would add another 0.3% to the unemployment rate, which was not counted. Meaning that the unemployment rate should have been around 5.5%. But remember how we have discussed those not counted who have not looked for work in the last 4 weeks. That totals 5.7 million people, who are not counted in the labor force or counted as unemployed. When the extra benefits expire Labor Day, some of those individuals are going to start looking for work again and will be counted. This could cause the unemployment rate to move higher until they find jobs. The u-6 all-in unemployment rate improved from 9.2% to 8.8%. Average hourly earnings were up 0.6% compared to the previous report and are up 4.3% year over year. Average weekly earnings, which we focus on more because it measures what people actually take home, were also up 0.6% month over month. Year over year weekly earnings is up 4.6%...but if we were to extrapolate the last few months on a year over year basis, which is more indicative of what we are seeing, it's closer to 7%. According to the last PCE report, private sector wages were up 1% last month and are on a 13% annualized pace.