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Element Squared Private Wealth, RBC Plaza, 60 S Sixth St, Suite 2900, Minneapolis, MN (2026)

05/27/2026

Market Update: May 27, 2026

The market took a breather today, with the S&P 500 essentially flat at $750.45, just below all-time highs as investors head into the Memorial Day weekend.

What's Working:

✅ Broad strength across sectors – Six of eleven sectors are in "RISK ON" mode (strong momentum), with zero sectors showing serious weakness. That's the healthiest breadth we've seen in weeks.

✅ Consumer spending looks solid – Both Consumer Discretionary (+1.7% today) and Consumer Staples are showing strength. When both areas perform well together, it signals confidence across the economy.

✅ Technology still leading – Tech continues its run with +15.9% gains over the past 20 days, though it's getting into overbought territory.

✅ Fear is low – The VIX (market's "fear gauge") dropped to 16.3, the lowest reading in months.

What to Watch:

⚠️ Financials and Energy struggling – Both sectors are showing weakness with negative returns over the past 20 days. When these lag while Tech soars, it can signal the rally is getting narrow.

⚠️ Market at stretched levels – We're at all-time highs with extremely low volatility. Great for existing positions, but not the ideal time to chase aggressively.

Bottom Line:

The technical picture remains positive heading into the holiday weekend, but we're at stretched levels. Now's the time to hold what's working rather than add risk.

Full analysis:

ELEMENT SQUARED PRIVATE WEALTH Daily Market Pulse Wednesday, May 27, 2026 MARKET REGIME 🟢 RISK ON Composite Score: +68.0 — SPY consolidates at $750.45, holds just below all-time highs above all key moving averages, VIX drops to 16.3 Short-Term RISK ON Score: +50 Medium-Term RISK ON Score: +75 L...

05/26/2026

Market Update: May 26, 2026

Tuesday's strong 0.66% surge for SPY to fresh all-time highs at $750.56 reflects a remarkable improvement beneath the surface: sector breadth achieved its cleanest configuration in weeks, with zero RISK OFF sectors for the first time in recent memory.

The Key Developments:

Breadth expanded to an exceptional 5/6/0 split (5 RISK ON, 6 CHOP, 0 RISK OFF). Technology maintains dominance at +100 with RSI 75.6 and a +15.3% 20-day return, but the rally has broadened significantly beyond mega-cap tech leadership.

Healthcare joined the leaders at +100 with RSI 61.3, validating last week's breakout from CHOP. Real Estate (+100) and Consumer Discretionary (+100) demonstrate continued strength, while Industrials' upgrade from CHOP to RISK ON (+75) marks the session's most significant breadth expansion, suggesting confidence in economic growth is spreading into traditional cyclical sectors.

The elimination of all RISK OFF sectors represents a dramatic shift. Utilities upgraded from RISK OFF (-38) to CHOP (+25), while Materials improved from RISK OFF (-24) to CHOP (+50). Energy's sharp downgrade from RISK ON (+62) to CHOP (0) stands as the only notable weakness, warranting attention given its role as an inflation hedge.

The Bottom Line: The VIX holding at 16.9 and SPY printing new highs 10.9% above its 200-day moving average signal complacency, yet the unprecedented breadth improvement, zero RISK OFF sectors, provides a more balanced foundation than previous rallies. The composite score of +70 RISK ON across all three timeframes (short +50, medium +75, long +75) confirms the intermediate-term uptrend remains intact with improving participation. While Technology's RSI of 75.6 approaches extreme territory, the expansion into Healthcare, Industrials, and cyclical sectors reduces dependence on narrow leadership.

Read our full Daily Market Pulse analysis:

ELEMENT SQUARED PRIVATE WEALTH Daily Market Pulse Tuesday, May 26, 2026 MARKET REGIME 🟢 RISK ON Composite Score: +70.0 — SPY surges $4.92 to $750.56, extends above all key moving averages, VIX steady at 16.9 Short-Term RISK ON Score: +50 Medium-Term RISK ON Score: +75 Long-Term RISK ON Score: +...

05/22/2026

Market Update: May 22, 2026

SPY closed at $745.70 near all-time highs with the composite holding at +60 RISK ON, yet the strength remains narrowly concentrated in just four sectors despite several emerging from deep oversold conditions.

The Key Developments:

The sector split stands at 4 RISK ON, 7 CHOP, 0 RISK OFF. Technology dominates at +91 with near-perfect scores across all timeframes (ST +95, MT +100, LT +80), but its 19.9% relative outperformance over three months signals extreme concentration risk. Energy provides secondary leadership at +65 with exceptional long-term strength (100% of stocks above their 200-day moving average), while Real Estate (+49) and Industrials (+32) round out the RISK ON group.

Seven sectors remain in CHOP despite multiple breadth thrust signals. Healthcare and Financials both show early reversal patterns with short-term scores surging positive while composites remain near zero, suggesting rotation may be starting. Consumer Discretionary bounced sharply from -64 to +3 after triggering a deep oversold bounce signal with historically strong win rates.

The Bottom Line: The synchronized RISK ON alignment across all three timeframes (ST +50, MT +50, LT +70) with supportive liquidity conditions (+67) suggests a constructive environment for equities. However, Technology's extreme dominance and the failure of seven sectors to break above CHOP despite strong bounces raises questions about sustainability. The VIX at 16.9 and RSI at 72 show manageable momentum, but the narrow leadership warrants caution. Watch whether the breadth thrust signals in defensive sectors lead to genuine rotation or another failed rally attempt.

Read our full Daily Market Pulse analysis:

SPY at $745.70 — Composite RISK ON (+60) with all time horizons bullish. Technology leads at +91, with broad rotation signals emerging across previously weak sectors.

05/21/2026

Market Update: May 21, 2026

Wednesday's modest 0.20% advance for SPY to $742.72 reflects an important shift beneath the surface: sector breadth expanded to six RISK ON sectors, marking the best participation since early May and suggesting the rally is finding broader support beyond mega-cap Technology.

The Key Developments:

Breadth improved from Monday's 4/5/2 split to 6/3/2 (6 RISK ON, 3 CHOP, 2 RISK OFF), with notable upgrades in Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary signaling rotation into previously lagging areas. Technology maintains dominance with RSI at 73.7 and a 20-day return of +14.6%, but the rally is no longer solely dependent on this sector's leadership.

Healthcare's upgrade to RISK ON (+56) with RSI at 62.2 represents a meaningful shift in defensive positioning, while Consumer Discretionary's transformation from RISK OFF (-39 on Monday) to RISK ON (+51) marks one of the sharpest sector reversals in recent weeks. Energy holds at +62, providing cyclical support alongside defensive strength from Consumer Staples (+58) and late-cycle rotation in Real Estate (+52).

The VIX declining to 16.7 from Tuesday's 18.2 confirms diminished near-term fear but also signals increasing complacency, as readings below 17 have historically preceded either continued rallies or sharp reversals when positioning becomes one-sided. Persistent weakness in Financials (CHOP +8) and Materials (RISK OFF -24) remains noteworthy.

The Bottom Line: The composite score at +64 RISK ON with all three timeframes positive (short-term +50, medium-term +50, long-term +70) and SPY holding 1.7% above its 20-day moving average at $730 validates the technical support structure. The expansion from four to six RISK ON sectors demonstrates improving market health rather than narrowing leadership. However, the combination of low VIX, elevated Technology RSI, and persistent Financials weakness argues for maintaining disciplined position sizing despite the constructive technical backdrop.

Read our full Daily Market Pulse analysis:

ELEMENT SQUARED PRIVATE WEALTH Daily Market Pulse Wednesday, May 21, 2026 MARKET REGIME 🟢 RISK ON Composite Score: +64.0 — SPY edges up $1.52 to $742.77, holds above all key moving averages, VIX calm at 16.7 Short-Term RISK ON Score: +50 Medium-Term RISK ON Score: +50 Long-Term RISK ON Score:.....

05/20/2026

Market Update: May 20, 2026

SPY's advance to $741.26 masks a concerning deterioration in underlying momentum: the composite score has weakened to +21 CHOP as both short-term and medium-term timeframes turn negative, leaving only the long-term at +42 RISK ON to provide structural support.

The Key Developments:

The market's internal structure has shifted meaningfully. While four sectors maintain RISK ON status (4/6/1 split), the composite declined from what would have been +41 RISK ON in recent sessions to +21 CHOP. The short-term timeframe registered -16 CHOP and medium-term at -6 CHOP, a classic warning sign when price advances while momentum breadth contracts.

Technology leads at +81 with a perfect medium-term score of +100, but seven of eleven sectors now show negative short-term scores. Energy provides meaningful support at +78 with exceptional 100% breadth above the 200-day moving average, yet this dual leadership is increasingly isolated. Cyclical sectors face severe pressure: Industrials shows only 32% of stocks above their 20-day moving average (ST -75), while Materials deteriorates with just 10% above the 20MA (ST -85, RSI 38).

Defensive sectors offer no sanctuary. Utilities registers -70 short-term with medium-term at -80 (downtrend), and Healthcare remains structurally impaired despite a slight ST +10 (MT -55, death cross). Consumer Discretionary stays deeply oversold at -39 RISK OFF.

The Bottom Line: This divergence between advancing prices and deteriorating breadth is the type of internal weakness that precedes either meaningful consolidation or correction. With only the long-term timeframe providing support at +42 RISK ON, the market is increasingly reliant on legacy strength rather than fresh momentum. Focus on the narrow Technology-Energy leadership core, avoid the six CHOP sectors, and prepare for increased volatility as participation continues to narrow.

Read our full Daily Market Pulse analysis:

ELEMENT SQUARED PRIVATE WEALTH Daily Market Pulse Tuesday, May 20, 2026 MARKET REGIME ⚡ CHOP Composite Score: +21 — Leadership narrows as short-term and medium-term momentum weaken Short-Term CHOP Score: -16 Medium-Term CHOP Score: -6 Long-Term RISK ON Score: +42 SPY advances to $741.26 as the m...

05/19/2026

Market Update: May 19, 2026

Monday's 0.67% decline to $733.73 represents healthy consolidation rather than deterioration, with sector breadth actually expanding from three to four RISK ON sectors.

The Key Developments:

Breadth improved to 4/6/1 as Real Estate upgraded to +41, joining Technology (+81), Energy (+78), and Consumer Staples (+42). Energy shows exceptional 94/100/100% breadth while outperforming SPY by +5.2% over 20 days. Technology maintains +81 with strong 64/80/64% breadth and +6.4% outperformance.

However, Financials (-26) and Materials (-17) continue troubling underperformance, with Materials showing only 10% of stocks above their 20-day moving average.

The Bottom Line: RSI at 68 and VIX at 18.2 suggest normal profit-taking rather than correction. SPY holds strong support 1.0% above its 20-day MA at $726.79, with medium-term (+50) and long-term (+60) regimes both RISK ON. The combination of growth (Tech) and cyclical (Energy) leadership alongside defensive strength provides a balanced sector profile.

Read our full Daily Market Pulse analysis:

ELEMENT SQUARED PRIVATE WEALTH Daily Market Pulse Monday, May 19, 2026 MARKET REGIME 🟢 RISK ON Composite Score: +58.0 — SPY dips $4.92 to $733.73, RSI holds at 68, modest pullback maintains bullish structure Short-Term CHOP Score: +25 Medium-Term RISK ON Score: +50 Long-Term RISK ON Score: +60 ...

05/18/2026

Market Update: May 18, 2026

Sunday's modest 0.08% decline for SPY represents healthy consolidation rather than weakness, but the narrowing of sector breadth from five RISK ON sectors to just three suggests the market is becoming more selective after its recent advance.

The Key Developments:

Breadth contracted to 3/7/1 (3 RISK ON, 7 CHOP, 1 RISK OFF) as Real Estate, Industrials, and Communication Services slipped from RISK ON into CHOP territory. Technology maintains clear leadership at +70 with RSI at 75.2 and a commanding +12.8% return over 20 days, though this concentration creates both opportunity and risk.

Energy emerged as the second strongest sector at +62 with RSI at 61.9 and a +10.0% 20-day surge, providing welcome diversification beyond Tech. Consumer Staples rounds out the RISK ON trio at +56 (RSI 68.8, +4.3% over 20 days), adding a defensive component to the leadership mix.

The concerning areas remain Financials (RSI 48.5, -1.7% over 20 days) and Materials (RSI 42.0, -3.9% over 20 days), both underperforming significantly despite the broader market's strength. Financials' persistent weakness historically precedes either increased volatility or sector-specific stress.

The Bottom Line: The RSI cooling from last week's 80+ extreme to 73.1 relieves overbought pressure without breaking technical support, a constructive development. SPY at $738.61 with composite +55 RISK ON remains firmly above all key moving averages (20-day MA at $725.30, 50-day at $691.04, 200-day at $673.89). However, the narrowing breadth increases the importance of Technology, Energy, and Consumer Staples maintaining momentum. Watch SPY's 20-day MA at $725.30 (1.8% below current levels) as key support.

Read our full Daily Market Pulse analysis:

ELEMENT SQUARED PRIVATE WEALTH Daily Market Pulse Sunday, May 18, 2026 MARKET REGIME 🟢 RISK ON Composite Score: +55.0 — SPY dips $0.56 to $738.61, RSI cools to 73.1, breadth narrows as rally digests recent gains Short-Term RISK ON Score: +62 Medium-Term RISK ON Score: +72 Long-Term RISK ON Scor...

05/15/2026

Market Update: May 15, 2026

Thursday's sharp 1.2% decline for SPY represents the largest pullback since early April, yet the market's internal structure suggests consolidation rather than correction: while sector breadth narrowed significantly, SPY remains well above all key moving averages with the composite at +52 RISK ON.

The key developments:

Sector leadership contracted sharply from Friday's 6/4/1 split to just 3/7/1 (3 RISK ON, 7 CHOP, 1 RISK OFF). Technology maintains its grip at +68 with a 20-day return of +14.1%, though RSI has cooled to 73.5 from extreme levels above 95. Energy completed a remarkable reversal from April weakness, surging to RISK ON at +54 with a +8.0% 20-day return and now sitting above all moving averages.

The defensive landscape is shifting in notable ways: Consumer Staples advanced to RISK ON (+51) with the sector now above all moving averages, while Utilities collapsed to RISK OFF (-42) with the worst structure across all 11 sectors, below all moving averages with RSI of just 31.3. This divergence within defensive sectors suggests a nuanced rotation rather than broad risk-off positioning.

The bottom line: RSI cooling to 69.6 from extreme overbought levels and VIX rising modestly to 18.19 suggest the market is working off the recent extension in a healthy manner. SPY remains 2.1% above its 20-day moving average at $723.80, 7.2% above the 50-day MA, and 9.8% above the 200-day MA, the intermediate-term trend remains intact despite the narrowing of sector leadership from six to three RISK ON sectors. The key test ahead will be whether SPY can hold above the 20-day MA, which would confirm this as consolidation rather than the start of a deeper correction.

Read our full Daily Market Pulse analysis:

ELEMENT SQUARED PRIVATE WEALTH Daily Market Pulse Thursday, May 15, 2026 MARKET REGIME 🟢 RISK ON Composite Score: +52.0 — SPY pulls back to $739.12, VIX at 18.19, RSI cools to 69.6 Short-Term RISK ON Score: +60 Medium-Term RISK ON Score: +70 Long-Term RISK ON Score: +95 SPY pulled back…

05/14/2026

Market Update: May 14, 2026

Wednesday's 0.79% gain pushed SPY to fresh highs at $748.17, but the advance came with a troubling twist: sector participation narrowed even as the long-term regime finally flipped to RISK ON for the first time since the post-election rally began.

The key developments:

Breadth deteriorated from Friday's 6/3/2 distribution back to 5/5/1 (5 RISK ON, 5 CHOP, 1 RISK OFF). Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary both slipped into CHOP territory, with Real Estate's RSI plunging from 60 to 51 despite rate-sensitive sectors typically benefiting from lower volatility environments.

Technology continues its parabolic move at +18.1% over 20 days with RSI holding at 81, the kind of extreme reading that historically precedes either sharp pullbacks (10-15%) or extended consolidation periods. The next closest sector trails by over 13 percentage points, illustrating dangerous concentration risk.

The positive surprise: Healthcare improved from RISK OFF to CHOP (RSI surging from 38 to 59), while Energy and Communication Services reclaimed RISK ON status. However, Financials remain stuck in CHOP at RSI 48, failing to confirm the broader market's strength, a historical warning sign.

The bottom line: The composite score climbed to +67 with all three timeframes now aligned in RISK ON territory (ST +63, MT +85, LT +52), but this structural improvement arrives precisely as short-term technicals flash extreme overbought warnings. SPY's RSI at 82 and VIX at 17.26 reflect dangerous complacency. Watch the 20-day moving average at $722 (3.5% below current levels) as critical support.

Read our full Daily Market Pulse analysis:

ELEMENT SQUARED PRIVATE WEALTH Daily Market Pulse Wednesday, May 14, 2026 MARKET REGIME 🟢 RISK ON Composite Score: +67 — Market extends rally to fresh highs with long-term regime finally flipping to RISK ON, though breadth deteriorates as fewer sectors participate Short-Term RISK ON Score: +63 ...

05/13/2026

Market Update: May 13, 2026

Tuesday's 0.58% rally pushed SPY to a fresh record high at $742.42, with Technology continuing to lead the market higher despite a surprise inflation report.

The key developments:

SPY gained $4.24 from Monday's close of $738.18, marking another strong session as the S&P 500 exceeded its previous 52-week high. The RSI at 76.4 indicates the market remains in overbought territory, though slightly cooler than recent extremes.

Technology stocks extended their advance, gaining 1.07% and continuing to dominate market performance. However, concentration risk remains elevated as leadership appears narrow within the sector. Real Estate showed relative strength while Financials continued to underperform, losing 0.79% on the day.

The market rallied despite April PPI surging 0.5% (the largest monthly gain in four years), suggesting investors believe the inflation spike is transitory and won't derail expected rate cuts. This resilience in the face of inflation concerns demonstrates strong underlying momentum, though it may also reflect complacency.

The bottom line: While the market's ability to reach new highs is encouraging, the combination of overbought conditions (RSI 76.4), narrow leadership concentrated in Technology, and continued weakness in Financials warrants caution. The rally's sustainability depends on whether market breadth can improve beyond mega-cap Tech leadership.

Read our full Daily Market Pulse analysis:

ELEMENT SQUARED PRIVATE WEALTH Daily Market Pulse Tuesday, May 13, 2026 MARKET REGIME 🟢 RISK ON Composite Score: +63 — SPY rallies $4.25 to $742.42, RSI rises to 76.4, breadth expands to 68% >20MA, 75% >50MA, 83% >200MA Short-Term RISK ON Score: +55 Medium-Term RISK ON Score: +82 Long-Term RISK...

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