11/24/2025
Your Monday Market Update is hereโand the Fed is giving whiplash. ๐ตโ๐ซ๐
Rates? Still in the high 5s to low 6s.
ARMs? Mid to high 5s.
Sounds steadyโฆ until you look under the hood.
Last week started slowโno data, no movement.
Then a very delayed September jobs report showed unemployment creeping up to 4.4%.
Cue: Bonds rally. Stocks dive.
And suddenlyโvolatility is back.
But hereโs the twistโฆ
The Fed is heading into its final meeting of the year without two of the most important economic reports it usually relies on:
๐ซ October inflation
๐ซ December jobs data
So how are they deciding what to do?
Depends who you askโฆ ๐ง
Last week, several Fed officials doubled down on the โno cut neededโ message โ and markets tanked the odds of a cut.
Then NY Fed President John Williams walked it back, calling policy โmodestly restrictiveโ and hinting thereโs โroom to adjust soon.โ
Markets heard it loud and clear:
December rate cut odds jumped from 39% to 71%โin 24 hours.
Now weโve got a packed week of housing + inflation reports that could shake things up again.
And if they donโt?
This range is where weโre stayingโfor now.
So if youโre in the market? Hereโs the move:
โ Lock now, float down if rates improve
โ Refi later if they drop after you close
โ Use a bridge loan if youโre buying before selling
And as always, I am here as a resource, send me a message! ๐โโ๏ธ
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๐ banksouthmortgage.com/sstufflebeam