09/09/2026
THE MARKET CAN MOVE BEFORE THE FED DOES.
Realtors, here is the September 9 market report in plain English:
Oil prices moved higher as tensions in the Persian Gulf intensified. That increased inflation concerns, pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.847% and created pressure on mortgage pricing.
Friday's CPI report is the next major pivot. The report forecasts a 0.2% monthly increase. Its view is that a reading at 0.2% or lower makes a Fed hold more likely, while 0.3% or higher increases the risk of a hike.
The practical point for your buyers: mortgage rates do not wait for the Fed announcement. Thirty-year fixed pricing is tied to the longer-term bond market, so rate sheets can move as new information is priced in.
For a buyer already under contract, the report's recommendation is straightforward. If the buyer likes the current quote and the payment works, locking protects the payment and the approval. If rates improve later, refinancing may preserve the upside. Floating leaves the buyer exposed to a worse rate sheet, a higher payment or reduced qualification.
One possible positive development is a reduction in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac LLPA fees. That could improve conventional purchase pricing, but nothing has been announced and the timing, size and eligible loans are unknown.
REALTORS: Have a payment-sensitive buyer or a contract approaching a lock decision? Text RATE WATCH to 401.529.4482. I will give you a direct recommendation based on the buyer, closing date and current market risk.
Jonathan Bellemore | Guild Mortgage | NMLS #1406741
Market information reflects the Guild Capital Markets report dated September 9 and can change without notice. Programs, pricing and eligibility are subject to change. This is not a commitment to lend.