02/29/2012
DAILY FX REVIEW
EUR/USD – The pair settled the session lower after the latest 3-yr LTRO came in close to consensus at EUR 530bln, with 800 banks submitting bids; which compares to EUR 489bln and 523 banks back in December. The excessive use of funds indicates that banks continue to re-fund, however it is also likely that portion of the borrowed money will be reinvested into sovereign debt auctions. Of note, Goldman Sachs have pointed out that this large uptake has largely insulated banks from funding shocks as they are now pre-funded until 2014, this has detached the costs of bank and sovereign funding for this period. Goldman Sachs have also said that pressures for forced deleveraging should reduce, as well as deposit pricing pressures, resulting in a positive revenue effect. In other news, the Dutch and Finnish Parliaments approve their participation in the second Greek bailout package. Finally, technical studies indicate that supports are located at 1.3389/66 and then at the psychologically important 1.3300 level. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 1.3487 and then at the 38.2% of the 1.4940-1.2624 move at 1.3509.
GBP/USD – The pair settled the session higher after BoE Governor King said that he did not think that there was ‘any hard and fast expectation’ of further QE, and that current action was appropriate. The pair also benefited from uncertainty over the health of the EU banking system after 800 banks borrowed EUR 530bln from the ECB in 3-yr LTRO funds. In terms of technical levels, supports are seen at the 10DMA line at 1.5822, followed by 1.5801 and then at 1.5721 (Feb-24 low). On the other hand, resistance levels are noted at 1.6000/95 and then at 1.6119 (Nov 9th 2011 high).
USD/JPY – Despite being on a downward trend for much of the session, the pair stages an impressive rally following the statement by Bernanke (semi-annual testimony) where he said that the Fed is prepared to adjust the balance sheet “as appropriate”. In addition to that, the pair was supported by touted bids from the BIS. In terms of technical levels, supports are seen at 80.23 which is the Tenkan-Sen line, followed by the 10DMA line at 80.01. On the other, resistance levels are seen at 80.70/79 and then at 81.66.