06/09/2026
The S&P 500 continues to march higher despite negative macroeconomic shocks driven by policies out of the White House (tariffs and Iran war). Muscle memory continues to prompt any short-term market sell-off to be bought. Why?
We explain below...
Market Resilience vs. Economic Headwinds
S&P 500 at Highs: Despite US-Iran tensions, elevated oil prices, and drag from political policies (tariffs and inflation), the market remains near record highs.
The Insulation: The US economy is anchored by a resilient private sector, a dominant service industry (less sensitive to energy costs), and an unstoppable AI investment cycle. It is hard to screw up the US economy.
The Two-Tiered Market: AI vs. The Consumer
Superficial Strength: The index level hides a massive divergence. The AI trade is carrying the S&P 500, while many stocks tied to the consumer (Nike, Uber, Chipotle) underperform.
Capex Boom: Companies supplying AI infrastructure (Nvidia, Micron, Lumentum) are seeing unprecedented profits.
The Risk: Most AI stocks are priced as if the boom will last forever, flashing warning signs of a painful eventual bust.
Structural Shift: Momentum Over Value
The New Players: Long-term value investors are being crowded out by short-term participants like retail traders, momentum funds, and multi-manager "pods." More people are buying stocks than buying companies. This means stocks are treated more like a ticker symbol that moves up and down, rather than as if one is buying a stake in the business.
Chasing Performance: Because pod managers face immediate job risk for underperformance, they have a short-term focus. They cannot act like a Warren Buffett buying an attractively priced stock knowing it will go up over time as the company grows. Microsoft and Meta both continue to execute well and are historically cheap, but no one wants to buy them if the stocks aren't going up. People want to make money today.
Distorted Pricing: Market action is driven by chasing whatever is hot today and aggressively shorting whatever is falling, with less of a focus on long-term fundamentals. Pods and others must remain market neutral, so they must pair longs with shorts. Simply buying what has strong positive momentum and shorting what has strong negative momentum.
Gamification and Overall Less Serious Nature: The market and the rest of society has become less serious. Everyone is betting on everything. The President and top CEOs like Jensen Huang (who used to be much more normal) are attempting to pump up individual stock tickers daily. Political corruption, stock pumping, and other third-world country-style actions are causing individual stocks to move with third-world country-style volatility.
Overall we remain constructive on the market but are avoiding the hottest areas such as the AI trade. The economy remains ok and we don't see the Federal Reserve raising rates like many now assume. Our top five picks: $MSFT $META $SE $NU $PDD