02/06/2020
February 6, 2020
Stocks have erased their opening gains as the news cycle turns from impeachment and trade deals to the outbreak of the Corona virus. US productivity and private pay roll numbers reversed trends by posting positive improvements that have not been seen in almost 5 years. Productivity increased to a rate of 1.4% annualized and based on Q4 figures while private payrolls rose by 291,000, well above the initial expectations of only 150,000 additions. Weekly jobless claims fell to 202,000 which is the lowest posting since April of last year and slightly below the expected figure of 215,000.
Bonds The 10 year has slowly worked its way back up to the high 1.6 range but not before allowing mortgage rates to hit their lowest level since Oct 2016. The decline in mortgage rates led to a roughly 15% increase in refi applications over the last week which is the highest reading since June of 2013. For the second time in the past 3 days dealers have oversubscribed on the Fed's term repo operation at 1.9x, just below the 2.0x posted on Monday. According to the Fed, liquidity issues were expected to be resolved by now but it is becoming apparent that several entities are still facing reserve shortages. This has led many to believe rates will remain unchanged or possibly lowered by the Fed in 2020, should liquidity issues persist.
MBS outperformed their Treasury hedge ratios for the second straight day, as fears of a broad market meltdown subsided. 30-year Fannies outperformed the 10-year note by 2-5 ticks, duration-adjusted, while Ginnies had a similar session, although GNII 4.5s managed to lag 10s by a tick. 15-year Fannies also outpaced the 5-year note by 2-3 ticks. (The 5/32nd outperformance of Dwarf 4s is attributable to the reversal of a mark issue from the previous session.) Trading volumes remained heavy, with $472 billion in total activity including about $28.5 billion in specified pools.
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American Bancshares Mortgage, LLC, NMLS No. 217378, Mortgage Lender Servicer License No. MLD360. Equal Housing Lender ( D/B/A ABSM and ABSM, LLC in states outside of Florida). For a list of state licenses visit www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org. We strive to be compliant with all applicable state and federal regulations pertaining to mortgage lending, advertising, and marketing, including but limited to all federal regulations, and guidelines promulgated and/or enforced by the US department of Housing and Urban development, The consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and the Federal Trade commission. American Bancshares Mortgage, LLC is not affiliated with any government agency. All applications are subject to underwriting guidelines and approval. This does not constitute an offer to lend. Not all applicants will qualify for all loan products offered. All loan programs, terms and interest rates are subject to change without notice. All fees are subject to state and federal high cost thresholds.
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