Jay Verburg Mortgage Lender

09/09/2026

📈 𝗪𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘁𝗼𝗻 𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝗦𝗮𝗹𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗜𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝗦 😮

😃 This is good news for buyers! There are opportunities to negotiate big concessions from some sellers right now. Listings are sitting on the market longer and sellers are not feeling pressure to settle for something less than ideal.

🏡 Washington State housing inventory is back above Pre-Pandemic levels and they are up significantly. The reason analysts look at this number is because that was the most recent time when markets were considered 'normal'. They were not juiced by abnormally low mortgage rates. Currently up 51% above 2019 levels.

🔢 As with any statistic the context if important. In 2019 Washington had one of the largest inventory reductions in the nation at 29.7% year over year. Statewide inventory was 1.2 months. That was among the tightest inventory markets. Comparing an increase to that situation would appear more dramatic than other markets. The spike is concentrated in King, Snohomish, Pierce and Spokane counties.

ResiClub has inventory increasing 70-90%. That is an additional 40-55k homes for sale. Where is this inventory coming from?

➡️ 1. Lack of buyer demand.

➡️ 2. People giving up waiting for lower rates to list their homes for sale

➡️ 3. Investors selling inventory due to rent caps and higher costs

➡️ 4. New construction inventory was at record levels from 2024-2026

➡️ 5. Recent tax policy and anti-business government stunting job growth

09/08/2026

Mortgage rates are making news again this week and there is a lot happening in the background worth understanding before you let the headlines drive a decision.

Markets are reacting to the latest inflation data, geopolitical uncertainty including the conflict involving Iran, and some mixed signals from the Federal Reserve. Here is the interesting thing though: stock markets have been holding up relatively well in spite of all of it. That tells you something. Investors are keeping money in riskier asset classes to earn returns rather than moving it into bonds. And when money does not flow into bonds yields stay elevated and mortgage rates follow.

On the inflation side a lot of the headline numbers are being pushed by a handful of anomalies rather than broad-based price increases across the sectors where most people are actually spending money day to day. The markets are reacting to the headline number regardless.

As for the Fed: yes there have been concerns about a potential rate hike. But several Fed bank presidents have recently made comments suggesting that is unlikely to be the next move. Some of the concern has been walked back.

Here is the good news for buyers right now. There are significantly more sellers in the market. Prices are softening in many areas. And the ability to negotiate creative offer structures, including temporary and permanent rate buydowns, is as strong as it has been in years. A significant buydown is not out of the question in today's negotiating environment and that changes the monthly payment picture dramatically.

Reach out and let's strategize together on how to make a purchase work for your clients right now.

425-591-6200.

09/04/2026

📈 𝗕𝗟𝗦 𝗥𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝗮 𝗩𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗝𝗼𝗯𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 | 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗨𝗽 𝗶𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗲

Mortgage rates moved higher as a result but bounce back quickly. This suggests the markets are beginning to question BLS data.

🤔 As has happened over the last many months, the BLS report contradicts private company analytics. Example:

BLS has private company payrolls up 127k. ADP and Revelio have them up about 38k.

➡️ 74k of BLS total 162k job gains were due to their birth-death model calculations. Those have been proven to be unreliable models as reflected in the QECW reports.

➡️ BLS has Leisure and Hospitality job gains at 62k. ADP has 16k gains and Revelio has 20k losses.

➡️ As revisions to BLS data are published, the end result are numbers closer to the ADP and Revelio numbers. This data courtesy of MBS Highway. Using history as a guide, this report will be revised much lower over the 6 months to 1 year.

09/02/2026

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗔𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗲𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗲-𝗘𝗮𝘀𝘁𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗘𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗛𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗟𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘀?

🤔 As homebuyers decide on where to purchase their home, the investment value is often part of the consideration. With recent changes in the labor markets, this has become more of a question. High home appreciation has been closely connected to big influx of high income earning from other areas.

🔢 MBS Highway has had some of the best data analysis regarding home price activity for many years. Here is their predictions of what will happen in Kirkland WA. This graph starts with a median priced home.

➡️ 1. $518798 cumulative price increase over 5 years

➡️ 2. Based on 5.43% average appreciation rate

➡️ 3. That is below the last 10-year average of 6.36%.

✏️ That is a solid return. Waiting to buy does not look like a winning strategy. With more sellers there are deals to be made by homebuyers now.

09/01/2026

𝗪𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗵 𝗔𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗦𝗲𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗲 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗼 𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗕𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗘𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲?

🏡 I will be posting a series of locations as a tour of the area. Buying a home has a different set of considerations for many without higher appreciation rates.

📈 Bellevue is projected to appreciate close to it's historic average of over 5%/year. Much lower than the mind-numbing double-digit numbers we have had recently but solid.

🎗️ As buyers decide on where to purchase this information is good to consider. Especially for those buying their first home with plans to move up in the near future. Also for those looking to build equity, sell, and put a portion into retirement investments.

08/26/2026

📈 𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗔𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗧𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆. 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗕𝗲 𝗔𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟮.𝟬𝟬% 😮

💲 The Personal Consumption Expenditures for July was released today. Headline readings were in line with market expectations at elevated levels. All in inflation was 3.7% and Core was 3.3%. The month over month was only .16% which translates to only 2% annually. The annual reading remained high because of previous 11-month levels.

🪙 Of concern to analysts is continued elevation of inflation in certain segments that are anomalies. For over two years questions have been raised about shelter inflation. The readings in the PCE and CPI are much higher than what is suggested about home prices and rent increase stagnation. This month was no different as can be seen in the chart below from MBS Highway. Health Care was up and is likely a legit reading. Another high component was Portfolio Management. This is really a bogus inflation factor, as Barry Habib points out, because it is entirely a reflection of an increase in stock market valuation.

⁉️ Adding up the 4 categories in the chart gives the total of all inflation for the month. That means there was essentially no inflation in other areas. With GDP growth at only 1.5% would a rate increase help with these sectors? Unlikely. Even if they do raise rates, it will likely help mortgage rates at a cost of harm to the consumer. Bottom line is the bond markets love bad news. 𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘯𝘰𝘸, 𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘳𝘦𝘮𝘢𝘪𝘯 6.75% 𝘰𝘯 𝘢𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘢 30-𝘠𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘍𝘪𝘹𝘦𝘥 𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘔𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘨𝘢𝘨𝘦.

For the reasons above, new Fed Chair Warsh wants to rely on an inflation metric called Trimmed Mean.

08/24/2026

😃 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗕𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗢𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗣𝗮𝘁𝗵𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗔𝗳𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆. 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗹𝗮𝗿 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗠𝗮𝗻𝘂𝗳𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀 🏡

The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act has some specific provisions to increase the production of factory-built homes. These homes have had a negative stigma in terms of quality and appreciation. Those perceptions are changing as manufacturers have dramatically improved the look and quality of pre-built homes. Popularity is anticipated to grow as developers take advantage of some new changes. Here are some highlights:

🎗️ 1. FHA Guaranteed Construction loans: This gives modular builders access to financing at rates as good as conventional construction. It also lowers capital requirements. This should stimulate more activity in the sector increasing competition and quality. Easing requirements for steel underframes is a positive change.

🎗️ 2. FHA Construction to Permanent loans for modular homes. This is great for buyers who need to acquire or develop a property, transport and install the home. These loans exist but the new regulations streamline various aspects such as appraisals, inspection and installation approval. In fact, builders can get their homes pre-approved by FHA.

🎗️ 3. Government backed loans for modular ADU's. Some the designs are impressive. This is FHA backed stand alone financing that does not require refinancing of someone's existing low mortgage.

🎗️ 4. Government backed Community Development Loans. Cities and Counties can offer low interest ADU loans that can include low interest, deferred payments and even loan forgiveness.

🎗️ 5. New Federal Pilot Program for ADU Construction: Supplies federal guarantees for loans for ADU construction. This will increase willingness for banks and credit unions to provide financing to developers and owners.

The attached Seattle Times repost of a Washington Post article highlights what we will likely see coming. A village in a high dollar area of California with homes much less expensive than traditional homes.

In my area of rural Woodinville, there are many neighborhoods with older manufactured homes. A buyer can purchase a large lot with existing utilities and place one of these new homes for a reasonable price.

I have multiple ways to finance a manufactured or modular project. DM me for a review of your options.

A few developers are pitching factory-built homes as the way of the future, trying to sell higher-quality homes in a new context: the typical suburban subdivision.

08/21/2026

🏠 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗕𝘂𝘆𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗣𝗮𝘆 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁 𝗣𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗚𝗲𝘁 𝗮 𝗟𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲? 💵

💲 Discount points mean paying more upfront for a lower interest rate. For some homeowners, the long-term savings make sense; for others, keeping cash available for a down payment, repairs, or other priorities may be better. The right choice depends on your goals, timeline, and how long you’ll keep the mortgage.

😕 This becomes a more complicated question when a homebuyer has opportunities to have the seller pay for the discount points in the form of a seller credit.

🧑‍🏫 I can help you compare the costs and find the strategy that fits your situation. Have questions? Send me a message – I’m happy to help!

08/18/2026

🏡 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀: 𝗗𝗼 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗪𝗮𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗮 𝗕𝘂𝘆𝗲𝗿 𝗕𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗣𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝗡𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲? 🔑

🫢 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘔𝘢𝘺 𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘕𝘦𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘞𝘢𝘪𝘵

💰 NEXA has access to programs to help your client with a variety of imitations keeping them from purchasing the next home of their dreams.

➡️ Can't qualify with two payments but can use savings?

➡️ Can afford two payments?

➡️ Need access to equity in their current home before it sells?

➡️ Need to buy with very little out of pocket before current home sells?

I have options that your clients may qualify for.

The cost for a solution can be as little as $2500.00

The flyer attached is for a solution for a client that just needs to cure qualifying for debt ratios on a purchase loan.

DM me for a consultation to determine what would work best for your client's unique situation.

08/18/2026

Some genuinely good news for real estate this week and it is worth paying attention to.

Both wholesale and consumer inflation came in lower than expected this week. That is a meaningful development and it moved rates. The 30-year fixed dropped approximately 0.125 percent on the news. Rates are still somewhat elevated relative to where we hoped to be at this point in the year but the direction is right and the trend matters.

But here is what I really want to talk about because I think a lot of buyers and agents are missing it.

Many buyers do not fully appreciate the position they are actually in right now.

Homes are sitting on the market longer because inventory is up. Sellers are more negotiable than they have been in years. And that negotiating power translates into real, tangible opportunities to get seller credits for closing costs, temporary rate buydowns, and even permanent rate reductions built into the deal structure.

Let me give you a real example from this week. I was working with a first-time home buyer, a single mom, and we negotiated enough seller credits to permanently buy her interest rate down to 5.25 percent. That is not a headline rate. That is a real result from a real transaction using the tools available in this market right now.

If you are an agent with clients sitting on the sidelines please reach out to them and update them on what is actually possible today. The market has shifted in their favor in ways that many of them do not know about yet.

I am happy to walk through the strategy with you. Reach out anytime.