Menlo Asset Management

Menlo Asset Management Wealth Management for Menlo Park

• RSU Strategy • Investment Services • Retirement Planning • Financial Planning

Independent advice for local professionals.

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05/27/2026

In 1990, the top 10 stocks made up about 18% of the S&P 500.

By 2015, still around 19%.

Today? Over 40%.

That's not a bull market. That's a handful of AI mega-caps carrying an index that 500 companies are supposed to share.

Here's why that matters. When 10 names drive nearly half the index, a single earnings miss, one bad quarter, can move your entire "diversified" portfolio.
Most investors don't know this. They own the index, they feel protected, and they move on.

But diversification used to mean something different. It meant spreading risk across sectors, geographies, and asset classes that don't move together. Not owning 500 companies where 10 of them call the shots.

This is exactly why high-net-worth investors are looking beyond public markets. Private credit. Real assets. Strategies that don't live and die by the Nasdaq's mood on a Tuesday.

The S&P can keep climbing. But climbing with 40% of your weight on 10 stocks isn't the same ride it used to be.

What does your diversification actually look like right now?

Click here and lets talk about it: https://lnkd.in/gTfEkASU

05/22/2026

Walmart just beat earnings. The stock fell 6%.

That's not a typo. They reported $177.8 billion in revenue yesterday, up over 7% year over year. Beat estimates. US comparable sales up 4.1%. And the market still dumped the stock.

Why?

Because the guidance was cautious. And when the world's largest retailer, one that sells to 90% of American households, sounds cautious about the back half of the year, people pay attention.

Here's what the market is actually saying: the consumer is still spending, but they're stretching. Traffic at Walmart is up. Basket sizes are shrinking. That's the trade-down signal.

People aren't stopping, they're downgrading.

For investors, this is worth sitting with. Consumer spending drives about 70% of US GDP. When the bellwether of value retail is growing but warning, that's not a bullish story or a bearish one. It's a reminder that the economic picture is more uneven than the headline index numbers suggest.

Portfolios built on one assumption about where the consumer is headed are exposed. Now is a good time to stress test yours.

Contact us here: https://lnkd.in/gTfEkASU

05/20/2026

Nvidia reports earnings tonight.

If you own a broad market index fund, an S&P 500 ETF, or a large-cap growth mutual fund — there's a very good chance you own Nvidia.

It's one of the largest companies in the world by market cap and has accounted for roughly 20% of the S&P 500's returns this year alone.

So even if you've never bought a single share of Nvidia directly, tonight's earnings call affects your portfolio.

That's the part most people miss. When you invest in a fund, you're not just buying "the market" in some abstract sense.

You're buying hundreds of individual companies — each with their own earnings calls, their own guidance, their own risks. Nvidia just happens to be the biggest one right now.

Analysts are expecting $79 billion in revenue and earnings up over 120% year over year. The bar is high. Markets have priced in a lot of good news already.
But here's the broader point: this isn't just about Nvidia.

Every position you hold — whether through a fund or directly — has an earnings season. A management team. A story that can change. Most investors have no idea what's actually inside their portfolio, let alone what those companies are reporting.

That's not a knock on index investing. It's a reason to have someone in your corner who actually knows what you own.

If you want to walk through what's in your portfolio and what earnings season means for your specific situation, reach out. That's what we're here for.

Contact us here: https://lnkd.in/gTfEkASU

05/18/2026

Ten of the last 12 recessions were preceded by a spike in oil prices.

That stat has been making the rounds on Wall Street this week, and for good reason.

Oil is up. The Fed's hands may be tied on rate cuts. And the same market that just set new records is now pricing in the possibility that the next move isn't down — it's up.

That's a lot of noise to sit with if you're watching your portfolio.

Here's the thing most people miss: volatility isn't a threat to a good financial plan. It's a test of one.

When markets feel uncertain, the clients who stay on track aren't the ones who predicted the move. They're the ones who already had a plan built for moments exactly like this.

That's the job. Not chasing returns. Not reacting to headlines. Building something that holds up when the headlines are loud.

If you're not sure your plan passes that test, that's worth a conversation.

Contact us here: https://lnkd.in/gTfEkASU

05/13/2026

April CPI just came in at 3.8% — the highest reading since 2023.

That's not a blip. That's a trend worth paying attention to.

Energy drove over 40% of the monthly increase. Gas prices up 28% year over year. Real wages down 0.5% for the month. Traders are now pricing in a rate hike by year end — a complete 180 from where expectations were at the start of 2026.

The Fed is stuck. Cut too soon and inflation runs hotter. Hold too long and you risk cracking the economy. With a new Fed chair taking over this week, there's a whole new layer of uncertainty baked in.

What this means for your money:

Inflation above 3.8% erodes purchasing power fast. Holding too much cash feels safe — until it doesn't. And bond duration risk is real when rate hike odds are climbing.

This is the environment where having an actual strategy separates people who build wealth from people who just watch it shrink.

📩 If you haven't reviewed your allocation lately, now's a good time. Let's talk.

Contact us here: https://lnkd.in/gTfEkASU

05/11/2026

For the first time in 75 years, the outgoing Fed chair isn't leaving.

Powell's term ended May 15. Kevin Warsh is the new chair. But Powell is staying on as a governor, still voting on rates, which almost never happens. The last time it did was 1948.

Why does that matter to you?

Because markets hate uncertainty. And right now you have a new Fed chair who's signaled openness to rate cuts, a former chair who helped build the case for keeping rates high, and both of them sitting at the same table. That tension doesn't resolve quietly.

Warsh walks in with a mandate from a president who wants cuts, inflation still above 3%, and an oil shock keeping price pressure alive. He can't just flip a switch. The chair is one vote on a 12-person committee.

What this means for your money: volatility around Fed meetings isn't going away. If anything, every statement, every press conference, every dissenting vote becomes a market event.

The investors who get hurt are the ones who let that noise drive decisions.

The ones who don't are already positioned with a plan built for uncertainty, not one that assumes the Fed has it figured out.

05/08/2026

Oil swings 5% in a day. The S&P hits a record, then pulls back the same session. Tomorrow's jobs number could move markets again.

If you are still working, this week probably felt like noise.

If you are retired and drawing from your portfolio, it was anything but.

This is the part nobody talks about enough. Volatility hits differently in retirement. You are no longer waiting it out. You are selling into it.

That is sequence of returns risk. And it can derail a retirement plan that looked perfectly fine on paper.

Withdrawal order, tax efficiency, Social Security timing, income flooring — these are not set-it-and-forget-it decisions. They require active strategy, especially in markets like this one.

If you are within ten years of retirement and your plan has not been stress-tested against a year like 2026, it is worth a conversation.

At Menlo Asset Management, we help clients make the transition from building wealth to living on it. Sustainably. On their terms.

Let's talk.

Contact us here: https://lnkd.in/gTfEkASU

05/06/2026

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for over two months. Everyone's watching oil. 20% of the world's seaborne supply runs through that waterway.

But oil isn't the whole story.

A third of global fertilizer trade moves through the strait too. Prices have surged right in the middle of spring planting season. That cost doesn't stay on the farm — it moves through the food supply and lands in grocery stores months from now, long after the headlines have changed.

Aluminum. Methanol. LNG. Same story. These are inputs to the things that build and run an economy, and they're all getting more expensive in ways most investors aren't tracking.

Geopolitical risk rarely hits where you're looking. It travels through supply chains, compounds quietly, and surfaces somewhere you didn't expect.

The right response isn't to reposition around every shock. It's to have a portfolio that was already built for uncertainty before the shock arrived. That's the work we do at Menlo — and it matters most in environments exactly like this one.

Please reach out if you want to talk through what it means for you.

05/04/2026

Consumer confidence just hit its lowest point since 2023.

Inflation is running at 3.3% and climbing. The Fed's hands are tied. Gas prices are up. Grocery bills are up. And Gallup's Economic Confidence Index dropped 11 points in a single month.

When the headlines feel this heavy, a lot of people do the same thing.
They move to cash and wait.

It feels safe. It feels rational. But for high-net-worth individuals, it's often one of the most expensive decisions they can make.

Here's why. Inflation is moderating unevenly, and the Fed has little room to cut rates given elevated energy prices and persistent above-target inflation. Ad Hoc News

That means cash sitting in a money market account is losing real purchasing power in a very quiet, very consistent way.

The investors who build long-term wealth aren't the ones who exit when sentiment turns negative. They're the ones who had a plan built for exactly this environment — diversified across asset classes, positioned for different rate scenarios, and not dependent on getting the macro call right.

At Menlo Asset Management, this is where our work with clients matters most.

Not when markets are easy. When they're not.

If you've been rethinking your positioning lately, that's worth a conversation.

📩 Reach out to connect with our team below:

https://lnkd.in/gTfEkASU

04/29/2026

Consumer confidence just hit its lowest point since 2023.

Inflation is running at 3.3% and climbing. The Fed's hands are tied. Gas prices are up. Grocery bills are up. And Gallup's Economic Confidence Index dropped 11 points in a single month.

When the headlines feel this heavy, a lot of people do the same thing.
They move to cash and wait.

It feels safe. It feels rational. But for high-net-worth individuals, it's often one of the most expensive decisions they can make.

Here's why. Inflation is moderating unevenly, and the Fed has little room to cut rates given elevated energy prices and persistent above-target inflation. Ad Hoc News

That means cash sitting in a money market account is losing real purchasing power in a very quiet, very consistent way.

The investors who build long-term wealth aren't the ones who exit when sentiment turns negative. They're the ones who had a plan built for exactly this environment — diversified across asset classes, positioned for different rate scenarios, and not dependent on getting the macro call right.

At Menlo Asset Management, this is where our work with clients matters most.

Not when markets are easy. When they're not.

If you've been rethinking your positioning lately, that's worth a conversation.

📩 Reach out to connect with our team below:

https://www.menloasset.com/contact_us/

04/27/2026

Earnings season is in full swing, and the numbers are strong.

Q1 2026 blended earnings growth for the S&P 500 is tracking at 15.1% year-over-year. That would mark six consecutive quarters of double-digit growth. Profit margins are at their highest level on record.

And yet, individual stocks are swinging 8%, 15%, even 18% on a single earnings report.

That's the paradox of earnings season. The macro picture looks healthy. But at the company level, it's volatile.

This is exactly when portfolio drift becomes dangerous.

A strong run in tech or energy can quietly shift your allocation from where it was designed to be without you noticing. Then one bad earnings call or one geopolitical headline reshuffles the deck, and suddenly your "diversified" portfolio isn't as diversified as you thought.

Rebalancing isn't a market call. It's discipline.

It's the process of trimming what's grown outsized and reinforcing what's underweight so your portfolio keeps reflecting your goals, your timeline, and your risk tolerance. Not last quarter's winners.

At Menlo Asset Management, we use periods like this, high earnings volatility, sector dispersion, markets near all-time highs, as an opportunity to revisit client allocations with fresh eyes.

If you haven't looked under the hood of your portfolio recently with a trained professional, now is a good time.

📩Click the link below to connect with our team:
https://www.menloasset.com/contact_us/

Address

1010 El Camino Real
Menlo Park, CA
94025

Opening Hours

Monday 6:30am - 5pm
Tuesday 6:30am - 5pm
Wednesday 6:30am - 5pm
Thursday 6:30am - 5pm
Friday 6:30am - 5pm

Telephone

+16503216068

Website

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