Menlo Asset Management

Menlo Asset Management Wealth Management for Menlo Park

• RSU Strategy • Investment Services • Retirement Planning • Financial Planning

Independent advice for local professionals.

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08/31/2026

Futures aren't even open yet, but the overnight tape already told a story.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish tone from Jackson Hole is still rippling through markets days later. The dollar is firm. The 10-year yield has been climbing. And Friday's close showed something worth sitting with before the bell rings today.

Nvidia fell over 4%. Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft each gained. All four sit inside the same "Magnificent Seven" bucket that most portfolio conversations still treat as one trade.

It isn't one trade anymore.

The last two years trained a lot of investors to think about concentration risk as an index-level problem: how much of the S&P 500 sits in a handful of names. That framing misses what's forming now. The dispersion is happening inside the handful, not just around it.

Rising yields and a firmer dollar tend to sort winners and losers by balance sheet and cash flow timing, not by sector label. A chipmaker facing capex-heavy growth expectations gets priced differently than a company sitting on recurring cloud and ad revenue, even when both wear the same "AI stock" tag in a headline.

For anyone holding index exposure and calling it diversified, this is worth a second look before the market opens.

Curious how your own "top holdings" have actually diverged from each other this year? Worth pulling up the numbers.

08/28/2026

All eyes are on Jackson Hole today. Most of the headlines are focused on Kevin Warsh's speech.

But something quieter has already been moving the bond market this week.
The Treasury Department is expanding its bond buyback operation, using its General Account to repurchase long-dated debt. Reports of the plan broke Monday. Ten-year yields have fallen for four straight sessions since.

This matters because it changes the mechanics, not just the mood. A Fed speech shifts expectations. A buyback program shifts actual supply and demand for bonds.

Long-dated yields easing has ripple effects. Mortgage rates. Corporate borrowing costs. The relative appeal of stocks versus bonds.

Worth watching whether this becomes a bigger lever than rate policy itself in the months ahead.

We track policy mechanics like this closely for clients building fixed income allocations. Reach out if you want to talk through what it means for your portfolio.

08/21/2026

In the Bay Area, AI wealth is becoming real estate wealth.

Something unusual is happening across San Francisco and Silicon Valley.

Employees at major AI companies are turning concentrated private-company equity into purchasing power—and some are using that wealth to buy Bay Area real estate.

Redfin estimates that OpenAI and Anthropic employees could collectively have enough post-tax equity to represent roughly 29% of the San Francisco metro’s housing market if both companies reach their expected valuations.

That number is striking. But the bigger wealth-management lesson is more important:

A liquidity event doesn't eliminate concentration risk. It can simply move it.
An employee with millions in private-company stock may eventually exchange:

Private equity → cash → Bay Area real estate

The asset has changed, but the underlying exposure to one region, one economic ecosystem, and one highly valued market can remain significant.

For Bay Area investors, diversification isn't just about owning different stocks.

It's about asking:

• How concentrated is my wealth?

• What happens when private equity becomes liquid?

• Am I overexposed to Bay Area real estate?

• How should liquidity be deployed across investments, taxes, and long-term goals?

The next generation of Bay Area wealth may be created in AI.

The more interesting question is how that wealth gets managed afterward.

08/19/2026

The Fed doesn’t control the long end of the bond market.

That distinction matters right now.

The 30-year Treasury yield recently climbed above 5.3%—its highest level since 2007—even as the Federal Reserve remains on hold.

So what’s driving the move?

• Heavy government borrowing and Treasury supply

• Persistent inflation uncertainty

• Higher term premiums

• Increased corporate borrowing, particularly to fund AI infrastructure

• Investors demanding more compensation to hold long-duration debt

For investors, the takeaway is simple:

A Fed pause does not automatically mean lower long-term rates.

That matters for everything from bond portfolios and equity valuations to mortgage rates and the cost of capital.

At Menlo Asset Management, we believe the important question isn’t simply, “What will the Fed do next?”

It’s:

What is the market demanding to lend money for the next 10, 20, or 30 years?

That answer can tell us much more about where financial conditions are actually headed.

08/17/2026

The Fed may be on hold. That doesn’t mean rates are.

Markets entered August expecting the Federal Reserve to remain focused on inflation and potentially tighten policy.

Now the picture is changing.

July CPI increased just 0.1% month-over-month, bringing annual inflation down to 3.4%. At the same time, softer employment and retail-sales data have reduced expectations for a September rate hike.

But there’s an important distinction investors shouldn’t overlook:
The Fed controls short-term rates. The bond market controls long-term borrowing costs.

The 10-year Treasury remains around 4.7%, meaning mortgages, corporate borrowing and other long-duration assets can remain expensive even if the Fed eventually cuts rates.

For investors, the takeaway is simple:

Don’t build a portfolio around a single Fed forecast.

Instead, understand how inflation, economic growth, fiscal policy and long-term yields interact—and position portfolios to remain resilient across multiple scenarios.

At Menlo Asset Management, we believe disciplined portfolio construction matters most when the market narrative is changing.

08/14/2026

The market is doing something investors often struggle with: ignoring the headlines.

The S&P 500 is near record highs despite persistent uncertainty around inflation, interest rates, tariffs and geopolitics.
Why?

Because ultimately, earnings matter.

Corporate earnings have remained surprisingly resilient, with roughly 85% of companies reporting recently beating expectations. At the same time, AI-related investment continues to support growth across the technology sector.

This is an important reminder for long-term investors:

Markets don't move based on whether the news feels good or bad.
They move based on how expectations compare with reality.

The challenge isn't predicting every headline.

It's building a portfolio that can withstand the headlines you didn't predict.

Good wealth management isn't about having the perfect forecast. It's about being prepared when the forecast is wrong.

08/12/2026

The Fed may not be the most important rate to watch.

With July inflation coming in at 3.4% year-over-year, the Federal Reserve is still balancing inflation against a cooling labor market. Markets are now debating what happens at the September meeting.

But there’s a more interesting question for investors:
What if the Fed cuts rates, but long-term borrowing costs stay elevated?

The 10-year Treasury yield, mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs and other long-duration rates aren’t controlled directly by the Fed. They’re driven by expectations for inflation, growth, government borrowing and investor demand.

That distinction matters.

A lower Fed Funds rate does not automatically mean:

• Cheaper mortgages

• Higher bond prices

• Lower corporate financing costs

• A stronger case for rate-sensitive investments

For wealth management, the takeaway is simple:

Don’t build a portfolio around a single rate forecast. Build it around what happens if your forecast is wrong.

The next few months could be a useful test of whether investors are paying too much attention to the Fed, and not enough attention to the broader interest rate curve.

08/10/2026

The inflation number investors should be watching isn’t CPI.

It’s what people expect inflation to be.

The latest New York Fed survey shows consumers expect inflation to be:

• 3.6% one year from now

• 3.3% three years from now

• 3.0% five years from now

Those expectations matter because inflation can become self-reinforcing.

If consumers expect prices to rise, they may spend sooner. Businesses may raise prices sooner. Workers may demand higher wages. And suddenly, yesterday’s inflation becomes tomorrow’s expectation.

That’s why the Federal Reserve pays close attention not only to current inflation, but to whether inflation expectations remain anchored.

With July CPI coming Wednesday, the interesting question isn't simply:

“Did inflation go up or down?”

It’s:

“Are consumers starting to believe higher inflation is the new normal?”
For long-term investors, that distinction matters.

Because a temporary inflation spike can be absorbed.

A change in inflation expectations can reshape interest rates, valuations, purchasing power, and portfolio returns for years.

08/07/2026

Lifestyle inflation rarely happens all at once.

It starts with a nicer apartment. Then a luxury car. More expensive vacations. Private schools. Country club memberships. Before long, yesterday's "splurge" becomes today's baseline.

The surprising part? Higher income doesn't always create a greater sense of financial freedom.

Research in behavioral economics suggests we quickly adapt to improved circumstances—a concept known as hedonic adaptation. As our lifestyle expands, so do our expectations. What once felt extraordinary becomes ordinary, and the cycle repeats.

The goal isn't to avoid enjoying your success. It's to make sure your spending reflects your values rather than simply keeping pace with your income.
A few questions worth asking:

• Is this purchase improving my life, or just my image?

• Am I increasing my standard of living faster than my wealth?

• If my income changed tomorrow, would my lifestyle still be sustainable?

Building wealth isn't just about earning more—it's about creating the flexibility to make choices on your own terms.

Financial independence is often defined not by what you can buy, but by what you no longer have to worry about.

08/05/2026

As earnings season continues, it's a good reminder that markets are constantly processing new information.

Headlines can create short-term volatility, but successful investing has never been about reacting to every news cycle. It's about having a disciplined strategy, staying diversified, and keeping your long-term goals in focus.

Some questions worth asking:

• Does your portfolio still align with your objectives?

• Has your risk tolerance changed?

• Are you invested for the next decade—or reacting to the next headline?

Market uncertainty isn't unusual. In many ways, it's the price investors pay for long-term growth.

At Menlo Asset Management, we believe thoughtful planning and disciplined decision-making are often more valuable than trying to predict the market's next move.

What principle has helped you stay disciplined as an investor?

Address

1010 El Camino Real
Menlo Park, CA
94025

Opening Hours

Monday 6:30am - 5pm
Tuesday 6:30am - 5pm
Wednesday 6:30am - 5pm
Thursday 6:30am - 5pm
Friday 6:30am - 5pm

Telephone

+16503216068

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