05/07/2026
📈 A Market Note from the Benchmark Advisors:
The market’s recent strength may feel a little surprising, especially with oil prices back above $100 a barrel and geopolitical uncertainty still making headlines. But markets are rarely driven by one factor alone. Right now, continued optimism around artificial intelligence, strong corporate earnings, and steady business investment are helping support investor confidence.
Economic growth is moderating, but the overall backdrop remains reasonably well supported. First quarter GDP came in at 2% as consumer spending cooled, and LPL Research has lowered its 2026 U.S. economic growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.0% following the Iran conflict. Even so, business investment, government spending, and AI-related capital spending continue to help offset some of the softness in consumer activity. A resilient labor market and strong corporate profits also give the Federal Reserve room to be patient, which means rate cuts in 2026 are less certain than they appeared earlier in the year.
For stocks, AI continues to be one of the biggest drivers of optimism. Major indices posted strong gains in April, and earnings growth has helped keep valuations from looking as stretched as they otherwise might. The S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio remains near 21, which is elevated but still supported by strong profit growth. If AI investment continues to translate into productivity gains and earnings growth, this bull market may have more room to run. That said, volatility is still part of the deal. Middle East headlines, oil prices, inflation concerns, and interest rate expectations can all create short-term swings.
The strongest anchor for the market continues to be earnings. First quarter earnings growth for S&P 500 companies is tracking above 20%, helped by technology investment, AI-related productivity gains, and broader capital spending. AI hyperscalers have increased 2026 capital investment plans by more than $200 billion this year, bringing expected spending to more than $725 billion. That level of investment is meaningful, especially for companies tied to AI infrastructure and semiconductors.
The bottom line is that we continue to see a constructive investment environment, though not one without friction. Strong earnings and AI investment are supporting markets, while inflation, oil prices, and geopolitical uncertainty remain sources of pressure. In an environment like this, patience and discipline matter. We continue to believe investors are best served by staying diversified, maintaining long-term allocations, and resisting the urge to let short-term headlines drive long-term decisions.