Arbor Financial; R. Jeffrey Small, President

09/02/2026

"When energy rises, it trickles through everything. The consumer gets whacked twice."

Jeff broke down the Fed's dilemma on the Cow Guy Close show on RFD-TV— and why energy is really at the center of it.

Here's the double hit: first you feel it at the pump. Then companies paying more for energy pass those costs right along to you at the register. Same price spike, two hits to your wallet.

His point — the Fed is stuck in a box. And the real fix isn't hiking rates into a slowing economy. It's solving the energy problem underneath it all.

08/28/2026

08/26/2026

"They own the railroad AI is built on — and AI is driving the train down the track."

That's how Jeff described Microsoft's moat on Schwab Network ahead of Nvidia earnings.

His point: the real advantage in Big Tech isn't just building AI — it's owning the distribution it runs on. Azure, Office, Security, GitHub, Copilot. Customers are already locked in. The rails are already laid.

It's why he's looking for wide moats and durable revenue in a market where valuations are stretched — not chasing hype.

Real strategy. Not a hot take.

08/13/2026

"The Fed isn't hawkish. It isn't dovish. It's data-ish."

Jeff's read on this morning's numbers via One America News Network: this is starting to look like a Goldilocks economy.

Wholesale prices came in flat. Producer inflation cooled from 5.5% to 4.7%. Jobless claims are still historically low.

Put it together and the Fed has every reason to sit tight — Jeff's been saying zero chance of a hike, and today's data backs him up.

Not too hot. Not too cold. For now.

But he's clear on one thing: cooling inflation isn't solved inflation.

Enjoy the sweet spot — just don't get comfortable.

No spin. Just the read.

08/07/2026

https://schwabnetwork.com/video/why-nvda-ge-and-jpm-stand-out-as-easy-money-disappears

Jeffrey Small discusses the macroeconomic outlook ahead of the jobs report, arguing that strong AI spending is being overshadowed by stretched valuations and higher rates. He highlights opportunities in long-term capital spending trends and cash-generating financials, pointing to Nvidia (NVDA), GE A...

08/06/2026

"Own the chip, the electricity powering the chip, and the bank financing it."

That's how Jeff framed the AI trade on Schwab Network — and it's the cleanest way we've heard it put.

Everyone's crowding into the same few names. Jeff's point is broader: don't just own the technology, own the whole system around it. The compute. The power infrastructure behind it. The bank financing the economy that runs on it.

His other message for this market — the easy money phase is over. Don't buy the peaks. Keep some dry powder, and wait for the pullbacks.

Real strategy. Not hype.

08/05/2026

"At 20 times earnings? This is a no-brainer."

Meta's been the stepchild of Big Tech CapEx — everyone else spends and the stock pops, Meta spends and the market shrugs.

Jeff sees it differently.

On Making Money with Charles Payne, he called Meta a great entry point: strong revenue story, big CapEx that's going to pay off, and they're already starting to monetize their AI.

His take — that spending transitions into earnings growth that compounds over time.

07/31/2026

Everyone's watching for a rate cut. Jeff says that's the wrong thing to watch.

While the market was pricing in a 35% chance of a rate hike this week, Jeff went on RFD TV and called it flat out: "Zero chance."

But here's the line that actually matters — "The market doesn't need a rate cut. It needs confidence."

It's not about the number the Fed prints. It's about whether they signal they're done tightening. Confidence over cuts. That's what moves things from here.

No spin. Just the read.

07/28/2026

"One of them's going to be dumb enough to buy it."

Jeff Small was on RFD talking bonds, and he put it better than any chart could: our treasuries are like fish. Somebody out there just has to be dumb enough to bite.

Here's the reality nobody wants to say out loud — we're spending $2.3 trillion more than we collect, and by year's end, 25% of every tax dollar goes just to interest on the debt. That's not a projection. That's now.

So when people ask why rates won't come down? They can't. Not until we can balance a budget — and Jeff's not holding his breath. Neither are we.

No spin. Just the math.

05/29/2026

The AI story is getting bigger than most investors realize.

In a recent interview on Fox Business, Jeff Small discussed what may be the next phase of the AI investment cycle, and it’s not where most people are looking.

While headlines continue to focus on the biggest names, billions of dollars are quietly moving into the infrastructure powering everything behind the scenes...