Woodworth Contrarian Fund, LP

Woodworth Contrarian Fund, LP Value-oriented, opportunistic, contrarian hedge fund. DEEP ROOTS. STUBBORN GROWTH. OREGON BASED. Hedge fund

Pass the ketchup. And the 7% dividend.Kraft Heinz has spent years digging out from past financial engineering, but we th...
08/25/2026

Pass the ketchup. And the 7% dividend.

Kraft Heinz has spent years digging out from past financial engineering, but we think the underlying story is getting more interesting: strong cash flow, manageable debt, continued reinvestment, and a hefty dividend while investors wait.

Why we maintain a $34.50 fair-value target for $KHC:
www.woodworth.fund/news/khc-pass-me-the-dividend

Kraft Heinz has been passed around a lot between institutional investors over the last few years.  The staying power of the brands is nothing to be scoffed at, and the global reach is the envy of staples companies everywhere, but the company has also definitely been the victim of financial

Willamette Valley Vineyards wants investors looking at the shiny resort renderings.We suggest looking at the bank accoun...
08/18/2026

Willamette Valley Vineyards wants investors looking at the shiny resort renderings.

We suggest looking at the bank account.

WVVI ended Q2 with a $534,488 bank overdraft, has $46.9 million of preferred liquidation preference sitting ahead of common shareholders, took a roughly $1.1 million hit tied to the RNDC bankruptcy, and is now pitching a grand “destination resort” that is not allowed under Oregon law.

But don’t look behind the curtain.

Our latest report does exactly that.

We believe the financial reality is simple: WVVI common stock is effectively a zero.

https://www.woodworth.fund/news/willamette-valley-vineyards-wvvi-the-man-behind-the-curtain

Willamette Valley Vineyards is running out of room to maneuver. Our latest report examines WVVI’s mounting liquidity crisis, growing preferred-stock burden, RNDC-related losses, and a proposed destination resort that is not allowed under Oregon law . We explain why management’s narrative does no...

A few years ago, FreightCar America, Inc. was producing approximately zero railcars.Today, it is capturing roughly 45% o...
08/10/2026

A few years ago, FreightCar America, Inc. was producing approximately zero railcars.

Today, it is capturing roughly 45% of new industry railcar orders.

That alone is a pretty wild turnaround.

Q2 2026 brought even more progress: backlog value jumped 121% sequentially, free cash flow reached $11.35 million, market share kept climbing despite a slower overall railcar market, and the company is now expanding into parts and refurbishment through its acquisition of Southern Parts & Equipment.

Even the enormously annoying warrant accounting issue is finally nearing the end.

The industry is soft. FreightCar keeps taking share anyway.

We dug through the quarter, the acquisition, the warrant cleanup, and where we think the valuation goes from here:

FreightCar America’s turnaround is becoming harder to ignore. Q2 brought surging backlog, stronger cash flow, 45% of industry new railcar orders, a strategic acquisition, and a cleaner balance sheet that could finally let RAIL’s underlying earnings shine through.

Shorting is not the mirror image of long-term investing.It is a tactical strike for moments when the market starts treat...
06/24/2026

Shorting is not the mirror image of long-term investing.

It is a tactical strike for moments when the market starts treating narrative like currency.

That is the thread running through the latest Millegan Memo, which went out to subscribers yesterday and is now live.

In June 1775, Congress tried to finance a revolution with paper promises, confidence, and no real taxing power. For a while, the Continentals spent. Then belief cracked, the bills collapsed, and “not worth a Continental” became one of America’s first great financial insults.

Different century. Same lesson.

When SpaceX mania, leveraged hype, or any other market story gets too far ahead of reality, the question is not whether the story sounds exciting. It is whether the paper is actually worth what people are paying for it.

Sometimes the story spends.

Sometimes the bill comes due.

Read it here:
https://www.woodworth.fund/news/the-millegan-memo-feb-june-2026

At Woodworth, we like value because it usually survives the sort of adversity that exposes everything else. This month’s Memo is about exactly that: puncturing market delusions when hype gets stupid, defending the radical act of owning boring cash-flow businesses like Kraft Heinz, and looking back...

Don’t buy the SpaceX IPO.Not because SpaceX is a bad company.Because Wall Street’s biggest IPOs are usually built for th...
06/05/2026

Don’t buy the SpaceX IPO.

Not because SpaceX is a bad company.

Because Wall Street’s biggest IPOs are usually built for the people selling first — not the long-term investors buying into the hype.

The story will be easy to sell: historic company, historic IPO, historic opportunity.

But “historic” does not mean cheap. “Everyone wants in” is not an investment thesis. And a great company can still be a bad entry price when insiders, issuers, and underwriters have chosen the perfect moment to unload stock into public demand.

Our latest article breaks down why marquee IPOs often favor Wall Street, why lockup expirations matter, and why the better contrarian move may be waiting for the launch-day circus to end.

Read the full article below (subscribe to our newsletter to get these scoops first):

https://www.woodworth.fund/news/why-you-should-not-buy-the-spacex-ipo

The SpaceX IPO may be pitched as the moonshot of the decade, but Wall Street’s “biggest IPO ever” script usually has a funny way of making issuers, insiders, and underwriters rich before ordinary long-term buyers get their turn. In our latest contrarian breakdown, we look past the confetti and...

New Woodworth article: WVVI: Sour Grapes, Stressed Distributor.Willamette Valley Vineyards may be showing sales growth o...
05/27/2026

New Woodworth article: WVVI: Sour Grapes, Stressed Distributor.

Willamette Valley Vineyards may be showing sales growth on paper, but the quality of that growth matters. Our latest update looks at WVVI’s deeper reliance on distributor sales, the Republic National Distributing Company risk, rising receivables, thin cash, bank overdraft habits, covenant pressure, and why preferred equity may not be fixing the underlying operating problem.

The short version: booked sales are not the same thing as collected cash.

Read the full article:
www.woodworth.fund/news/willamette-valley-vineyards-wvvi-sour-grapes

Willamette Valley Vineyards’ latest East Coast distribution reshuffle was presented as a growth initiative, but distributor RNDC’s ongoing collapse makes WVVI look materially riskier than management’s recent press releases suggest. The company aligned distribution in New York and parts of the ...

Kraft Heinz is not suddenly a glamour stock — and that is exactly what makes it interesting.The latest quarter did not s...
05/12/2026

Kraft Heinz is not suddenly a glamour stock — and that is exactly what makes it interesting.

The latest quarter did not show a miraculous reinvention. It showed something more useful: steady cash generation, a protected dividend, improving share trends, and management redirecting attention away from corporate breakup theater and back toward long-term brand investment.

Berkshire’s exit is the headline. The halted breakup may be the strategy.

Read our latest Woodworth piece on why $KHC still looks like a respectable contrarian holding hiding in plain sight:

www.woodworth.fund/news/less-drama-more-ketchup

Kraft Heinz is not a glamour story - and that may be the point. The latest quarter showed a business still generating strong free cash flow, protecting a 6%+ dividend, improving share trends, and redirecting energy away from corporate breakup theatrics and back toward brand investment. With the spli

MGP Ingredients ($MGPI) looked ugly after earnings - but sometimes ugly is where value lives.The big headline loss was m...
05/06/2026

MGP Ingredients ($MGPI) looked ugly after earnings - but sometimes ugly is where value lives.

The big headline loss was mostly tied to non-cash write-downs, while management still reaffirmed 2026 EBITDA and free cash flow guidance. With the stock trading near tangible book value and the liquor industry still stuck in a hangover, we think MGPI deserves a closer look.

Read the full post-earnings review here:

MGP Ingredients’ latest quarter looked ugly on the surface, but the headline loss was driven largely by non-cash write-downs rather than a collapse in cash earnings. With management reaffirming 2026 EBITDA and free cash flow guidance, tangible book value rising, and the stock trading near book val...

New Millegan Memo is out. The connecting thread is bottlenecks—who controls them, and who pays when the market reprices ...
02/21/2026

New Millegan Memo is out. The connecting thread is bottlenecks—who controls them, and who pays when the market reprices them. We start in 1609 with a shareholder going after the Dutch East India Company (basically the first “what is management doing?” letter), then jump to Pinterest’s post-earnings beatdown: users grew, but revenue didn’t meet expectations and tariff-pressured ad budgets are making investors skittish.

Then we hit the weirdest part of the AI boom: data centers are bidding up “powered land” so aggressively they’re competing with housing development. Oregon’s land-use system makes this story hit differently here, because growth is pushed inward instead of letting the highest bidder sprawl across the map.

Full memo: https://www.woodworth.fund/news/the-millegan-memo-january-2026

This month reads like three versions of the same story: whoever controls the bottleneck controls the scoreboard. In 1609, Isaac Le Maire tried to smack the Dutch East India Company back into its lane because monopolies eventually stop competing and start rewriting the rules. In 2026, Pinterest prove

New Woodworth write-up: AdvanSix (ASIX) is trading like it’s going out of business. We think it’s a cyclical trough gett...
01/29/2026

New Woodworth write-up: AdvanSix (ASIX) is trading like it’s going out of business. We think it’s a cyclical trough getting punished like a permanent decline, with real balance-sheet strength and a meaningful tax-credit catalyst ahead.

Read: www.woodworth.fund/news/the-chemistry-of-mispricing-asix

When the market counts a company down and out, we take a second look. AdvanSix Inc. (NYSE: ASIX) is currently trading as if it were going out of business, having shed over 44% of its value in the last year. The "smart money" has fled the building, spooked by a cyclical downturn in nylon an

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