Woodworth Contrarian Fund, LP

Woodworth Contrarian Fund, LP Value-oriented, opportunistic, contrarian hedge fund. DEEP ROOTS. STUBBORN GROWTH. OREGON BASED. Hedge fund

Don’t buy the SpaceX IPO.Not because SpaceX is a bad company.Because Wall Street’s biggest IPOs are usually built for th...
06/05/2026

Don’t buy the SpaceX IPO.

Not because SpaceX is a bad company.

Because Wall Street’s biggest IPOs are usually built for the people selling first — not the long-term investors buying into the hype.

The story will be easy to sell: historic company, historic IPO, historic opportunity.

But “historic” does not mean cheap. “Everyone wants in” is not an investment thesis. And a great company can still be a bad entry price when insiders, issuers, and underwriters have chosen the perfect moment to unload stock into public demand.

Our latest article breaks down why marquee IPOs often favor Wall Street, why lockup expirations matter, and why the better contrarian move may be waiting for the launch-day circus to end.

Read the full article below (subscribe to our newsletter to get these scoops first):

https://www.woodworth.fund/news/why-you-should-not-buy-the-spacex-ipo

The SpaceX IPO may be pitched as the moonshot of the decade, but Wall Street’s “biggest IPO ever” script usually has a funny way of making issuers, insiders, and underwriters rich before ordinary long-term buyers get their turn. In our latest contrarian breakdown, we look past the confetti and...

New Woodworth article: WVVI: Sour Grapes, Stressed Distributor.Willamette Valley Vineyards may be showing sales growth o...
05/27/2026

New Woodworth article: WVVI: Sour Grapes, Stressed Distributor.

Willamette Valley Vineyards may be showing sales growth on paper, but the quality of that growth matters. Our latest update looks at WVVI’s deeper reliance on distributor sales, the Republic National Distributing Company risk, rising receivables, thin cash, bank overdraft habits, covenant pressure, and why preferred equity may not be fixing the underlying operating problem.

The short version: booked sales are not the same thing as collected cash.

Read the full article:
www.woodworth.fund/news/willamette-valley-vineyards-wvvi-sour-grapes

Willamette Valley Vineyards’ latest East Coast distribution reshuffle was presented as a growth initiative, but distributor RNDC’s ongoing collapse makes WVVI look materially riskier than management’s recent press releases suggest. The company aligned distribution in New York and parts of the ...

Kraft Heinz is not suddenly a glamour stock — and that is exactly what makes it interesting.The latest quarter did not s...
05/12/2026

Kraft Heinz is not suddenly a glamour stock — and that is exactly what makes it interesting.

The latest quarter did not show a miraculous reinvention. It showed something more useful: steady cash generation, a protected dividend, improving share trends, and management redirecting attention away from corporate breakup theater and back toward long-term brand investment.

Berkshire’s exit is the headline. The halted breakup may be the strategy.

Read our latest Woodworth piece on why $KHC still looks like a respectable contrarian holding hiding in plain sight:

www.woodworth.fund/news/less-drama-more-ketchup

Kraft Heinz is not a glamour story - and that may be the point. The latest quarter showed a business still generating strong free cash flow, protecting a 6%+ dividend, improving share trends, and redirecting energy away from corporate breakup theatrics and back toward brand investment. With the spli

MGP Ingredients ($MGPI) looked ugly after earnings - but sometimes ugly is where value lives.The big headline loss was m...
05/06/2026

MGP Ingredients ($MGPI) looked ugly after earnings - but sometimes ugly is where value lives.

The big headline loss was mostly tied to non-cash write-downs, while management still reaffirmed 2026 EBITDA and free cash flow guidance. With the stock trading near tangible book value and the liquor industry still stuck in a hangover, we think MGPI deserves a closer look.

Read the full post-earnings review here:

MGP Ingredients’ latest quarter looked ugly on the surface, but the headline loss was driven largely by non-cash write-downs rather than a collapse in cash earnings. With management reaffirming 2026 EBITDA and free cash flow guidance, tangible book value rising, and the stock trading near book val...

New Millegan Memo is out. The connecting thread is bottlenecks—who controls them, and who pays when the market reprices ...
02/21/2026

New Millegan Memo is out. The connecting thread is bottlenecks—who controls them, and who pays when the market reprices them. We start in 1609 with a shareholder going after the Dutch East India Company (basically the first “what is management doing?” letter), then jump to Pinterest’s post-earnings beatdown: users grew, but revenue didn’t meet expectations and tariff-pressured ad budgets are making investors skittish.

Then we hit the weirdest part of the AI boom: data centers are bidding up “powered land” so aggressively they’re competing with housing development. Oregon’s land-use system makes this story hit differently here, because growth is pushed inward instead of letting the highest bidder sprawl across the map.

Full memo: https://www.woodworth.fund/news/the-millegan-memo-january-2026

This month reads like three versions of the same story: whoever controls the bottleneck controls the scoreboard. In 1609, Isaac Le Maire tried to smack the Dutch East India Company back into its lane because monopolies eventually stop competing and start rewriting the rules. In 2026, Pinterest prove

New Woodworth write-up: AdvanSix (ASIX) is trading like it’s going out of business. We think it’s a cyclical trough gett...
01/29/2026

New Woodworth write-up: AdvanSix (ASIX) is trading like it’s going out of business. We think it’s a cyclical trough getting punished like a permanent decline, with real balance-sheet strength and a meaningful tax-credit catalyst ahead.

Read: www.woodworth.fund/news/the-chemistry-of-mispricing-asix

When the market counts a company down and out, we take a second look. AdvanSix Inc. (NYSE: ASIX) is currently trading as if it were going out of business, having shed over 44% of its value in the last year. The "smart money" has fled the building, spooked by a cyclical downturn in nylon an

MEI (Methode Electronics) is the kind of stock nobody wants to defend at a dinner table: revenue down double digits, ear...
01/22/2026

MEI (Methode Electronics) is the kind of stock nobody wants to defend at a dinner table: revenue down double digits, earnings miss, EV demand headwinds, and a “transformation” that’s taking too long.

But that’s where mispricings form. At ~$7.50, MEI is trading near tangible book value (~$7.83) and around ~0.4x book overall—pricing in a lot of failure. Meanwhile, management still guides to positive free cash flow for the year, and the chart has carved out a clear floor around $7.10.

We initiated a position this month and laid out the full risk/reward here:

www.woodworth.fund/news/methode-electronics-mei-a-short-circuit-or-just-a-blown-fuse

If you want to clear a room at a cocktail party in 2026, tell them you’re excited about an auto-parts supplier undergoing a "transformation" during an EV slowdown. If you want to clear the room even faster, mention that its revenue is down double-digits and it just missed earnings. Enter

A ban on institutional buyers of single-family homes makes for a great headline—but it doesn’t magically create houses, ...
01/13/2026

A ban on institutional buyers of single-family homes makes for a great headline—but it doesn’t magically create houses, and it can actually reduce the incentives to build more rental supply.

That’s the lead story in our December Millegan Memo (sent to subscribers yesterday). We also cover Mexico’s Tequila Crisis and FX risk, a $BMBL rebound setup with short interest as fuel, Coos Bay’s port plan built on automation + ship-to-rail (plus dredging politics), why fewer quarterly reports would mean more speculation (see $STLA moving the opposite direction), a quick WORM check on Oregon’s market tape, and why weakening trust in BLS-style data can make markets jumpier.

https://www.woodworth.fund/news/the-millegan-memo-december-2025

December served up the full Woodworth sampler platter: Oregon’s market “scoreboard” gave us a mid-month sugar high and a month-end reality check, a 90s peso hangover reminded everyone that “international outperformance” can just be FX doing cardio, and a dating app the market ghosted might...

Bumble ($BMBL) got swiped left by Wall Street, but the rebound case is more compelling than the headline narrative: aggr...
12/31/2025

Bumble ($BMBL) got swiped left by Wall Street, but the rebound case is more compelling than the headline narrative: aggressive cost cuts, founder back in charge, margins improving.

We laid it out here: https://www.woodworth.fund/news/swiped-left-by-wall-street-the-bmbl-rebound-trade

Bumble looks like another “dead app” stock at first glance—revenue rolling over, consensus price targets drifting down, and big tech funds ghosting it like a bad first date. Under the hood, it is a turnaround in mid‑flight: cutting costs hard, consolidating assets like Fruitz and Geneva, and...

We just published our first full article on Seeking Alpha: "MGP Ingredients Is Not Broken, It's Just Hungover."Our take:...
12/17/2025

We just published our first full article on Seeking Alpha: "MGP Ingredients Is Not Broken, It's Just Hungover."

Our take: the brown-goods inventory hangover is cyclical, not permanent, and MGPI is priced like the market expects a funeral.

Read the Woodworth post (includes the Seeking Alpha link + full republish): https://www.woodworth.fund/news/mgp-ingredients-is-not-broken-its-just-hungover-seeking-alpha

This will be our first full article published in Seeking Alpha - take a look here and please vote at the bottom of the Seeking Alpha article that our analysis was compelling! We were impressed with the thorough nature of the publication process through Seeking Alpha and look forward to future

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