09/01/2026
📈 Chart of the Week: Can a Cooling US Labor Market Justify Another Fed Hike?
The Fed faces an increasingly difficult balancing act.
US payroll growth has weakened markedly, culminating in a 23,000 decline in July, while the unemployment rate remains around 4.1%. Yet the US 2-year Treasury yield, one of the market's clearest gauges of near-term monetary-policy expectations, has risen sharply as investors reassess the possibility of further Fed tightening.
This week's August employment report could therefore be pivotal. Another weak jobs reading would challenge the recent rise in rate expectations, while a stronger report could reinforce the case for keeping policy tighter for longer.
The question for markets: Is the US labor market strong enough to withstand another rate hike?