Key Mortgage Corp.

05/24/2026

This Memorial Day, we pause to remember the brave men and women who gave everything in service to our country. Their courage and sacrifice are the reason we have the freedoms we cherish today.
To the families who carry their memory forward — thank you. We honor them today and always. 🇺🇸

05/10/2026

She was the first home we ever knew. 🌷
Happy Mother’s Day to the women who shaped us, held us, and loved us through it all.

04/29/2026

Federal Reserve holds steady on rate cut citing inflation…

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday, ​but in its most divided decision since 1992 noted rising concerns about inflation in a policy statement that drew ‌three dissents from officials who no longer feel the U.S. central bank should communicate a bias towards lowering borro...

04/22/2026

Oil prices dropped this week. Markets cheered.
I’d encourage some caution before joining that celebration.
The relationship between oil prices and consumer inflation is not immediate. It is lagged — typically 3 to 6 months.
The disruption to oil production and shipping lanes caused by the Middle East conflict doesn’t vanish with a ceasefire. Production that was curtailed takes months to restore. Shipping routes take even longer to normalize. That disruption works its way through supply chains slowly — showing up in goods prices long after the headlines have moved on.
Layer on top of that the tariff costs that have still not fully passed through to consumers. The Federal Reserve has said explicitly they are waiting to see that data before cutting rates.
So here is where we are:
Markets are expecting rate cuts. The Fed is waiting on inflation data that hasn’t arrived yet. That data — when it does arrive — may not be friendly.
For anyone making decisions about buying a home, refinancing, or managing retirement savings — the next 6 months deserve more careful attention than the current headlines suggest.
I’ve shared these four posts not to predict doom, but because you deserve the questions that aren’t being asked loudly enough.
I welcome your thoughts — what are you seeing that the mainstream narrative is missing?

04/20/2026

his is the post I’ve been building toward — and it’s the one you won’t hear on CNBC…

For decades, the world has bought oil in U.S. dollars. That arrangement, the petrodollar system, meant that oil-producing nations accumulated enormous reserves of dollars, which they recycled back into U.S. Treasury purchases.
It was one of the key pillars supporting foreign demand for our debt and keeping U.S. interest rates, including mortgage rates — lower than they would otherwise be.
That arrangement is quietly fracturing.
Iran is now accepting other currencies for oil transactions. Other nations are following. The current U.S.-Israel conflict and the broader geopolitical posture of the United States is accelerating a shift that was already underway — away from dollar-denominated oil trade.
This doesn’t collapse overnight. But it doesn’t need to.
Even a gradual reduction in petrodollar recycling into Treasuries means less foreign demand for our debt, which means higher yields which means higher mortgage rates for American families over time.
This is a structural, long-term shift being driven by decisions being made right now.
It deserves a serious conversation that it simply isn’t getting.
Final piece Wednesday — where all of this converges.

04/17/2026

Most people have never heard of a Treasury auction.

As a mortgage broker, I watch them like a hawk — because they are one of the most direct indicators of where your mortgage rate is heading.

Here's the simple version:

The U.S. government borrows money by selling Treasury notes to investors worldwide. The 5-year and 10-year notes matter most for mortgage rates. When demand is strong, yields stay low. When demand weakens, yields rise — and your mortgage rate rises with them.

The number I watch is called the "indirect bid" — that's the proxy for foreign investor participation. Japan, China, the Gulf states. When they show up, rates stay manageable. When they don't, domestic buyers fill the gap — but only at higher yields.

We have major 5-year and 10-year auctions coming in the next few weeks.

Given everything happening geopolitically and with trade policy right now, foreign appetite for U.S. debt is genuinely uncertain in a way it hasn't been in years.

Those auction results will tell us more about where mortgage rates are going than anything you'll hear on financial television.

I'll be watching. More on Monday on why foreign demand may be structurally shifting — and what's driving it.

04/15/2026

The headlines this week are telling a reassuring story.

Stocks up. Oil down. Ceasefire reached.

As a mortgage broker, I spend my days watching the indicators that actually move interest rates — and right now, the comfortable narrative and the underlying data are telling two very different stories.

Over the next few posts, I'm going to walk through four things I'm watching closely that aren't getting serious attention in mainstream financial media.

Not to alarm anyone. Not to predict doom.

But because my clients — homebuyers, homeowners, and people managing their retirement savings — deserve the full picture, not just the one that keeps them calm and fully invested.

First question I'll leave you with:

When was the last time CNBC led with a story that suggested you might want to be cautious?

There's a reason for that.

More this Friday stay tuned

12/24/2025