01/19/2026
The Cost of Waiting
2025: “Rates are too high. I’ll wait.”
2026: “Rates didn't come down enough yet, I'll wait”
2027: “Rates are lower! …Why are there 18 offers on every house?”
If you're a buyer waiting for lower rates to purchase a home, here is something you may not have thought through:
When rates drop, buyers don’t politely line up single-file.
They flood the market like it’s Black Friday and the doors just opened.
Houston’s 2025 median home price was about $334,990.
If prices just follow a plain-vanilla forecast path, that “same-ish” home is roughly $350K+ by the end of 2027.
And while you're waiting for “the perfect rate”… you’re paying rent you’ll never see again:
Assume rent of $1,700 now, and then $1,775 (or more) when your lease is up this year and the landlord raises rent:
Waiting through 2027 = about $42,450 in rent (Jan 2026–Dec 2027).
P**f. Gone.
And then the biggest IF, rates might not even drop much at all (averaged over the year):
Fannie Mae: Currently flat rate projections of ~6.0% average in through 2027.
“Okay, but I think Fannie is wrong, and rates will drop some, and at the end of 2027 rates are 5.5% vs. 6.0% now?”
Cool—let’s run that exact comparison:
Assumptions: Conventional 30-year fixed with 5% down, P&I only.
- Buy now: $335,000 at 6.00%
- Loan amount: $318,250
- P&I payment: ~$1,908/mo
vs.
- Wait until end of 2027: $350,000 at 5.50%
- Loan amount: $332,500
- P&I payment: ~$1,888/mo
So after waiting ~2 years, your “win” is… about $20/month on P&I.
Meanwhile:
- you paid ~$41k–$42k in rent, and
- need more down payment ($17,500 vs $16,750)
- In a more competitive market, are less much less likely to get any purchase concessions from sellers.
That’s not “timing the market.” That’s paying a subscription fee to delay homeownership.
Every year you wait costs you:
- Equity you didn’t build
- Appreciation you didn’t catch
- Rent you can’t refund
- And more buyers to fight later
