08/15/2026
Rates haven’t really gone anywhere at least not in the way people talk about.
If you look at the same week in August over the last four years, you basically see a narrow band:
2023: 6.90%
2024: 6.73%
2025: 6.63%
2026: 6.75%
So yes, rates get discussed constantly but for most buyers, they’ve been good enough to shop or bad enough to hesitate for years, not truly transformed by time.
And that matters because a lot of people aren’t just waiting on a number. They’re waiting on an outcome.
But life doesn’t pause for mortgage rate forecasts.
Home prices shift. Rents rise. Households grow or change. People switch jobs, move, relocate for family, get married, need more space, or just realize their current home no longer fits.
Waiting can be rational or irrational.
There’s a difference
Waiting because it doesn’t make financial sense right now budget, cash to close, DTI, long-term affordability
and
Waiting because you assume the market will snap back to 2020/2021.
Those are not the same bet. One is a budget decision. The other is a prediction.
Also overlooked affordability has improved even without a big rate drop.
Wages have grown. Inventory has improved in many areas. Buyers have more negotiating power. Sellers are more willing to offer concessions and credits. In practice, the deal has gotten better even when rates haven’t dramatically changed.
So when someone asks me whether they should buy or wait, I’m not trying to game what rates will be six months from now.
I want to know:
Does the payment make sense with today’s income and expenses?
Can they comfortably keep the home for long enough?
How much cash will they have left after closing?
Is this the right house for their real life not just their spreadsheet?
And what are they expecting to change by waiting?
Because after four years of rates sitting in almost the same range, one thing is clear.
The question isn’t whether rates will eventually fall. The question is whether buying now solves your problem while waiting solves someone else’s fantasy.
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