09/04/2026
MARKET UPDATE: Good morning and welcome to the start of the Labor Day Weekend!
Since it is a holiday weekend, we expect that bond desks could be shorthanded and traders will be heading for the exit early today. That could contribute to market liquidity drying up which could cause prices to drop which would increase rates. Also, investors may be more likely to change rate sheets to protect against this drop in liquidity.
This morning’s highlight was the August non-farm payroll release of 162k which was much higher that the 55k forecast. The prior month’s payroll number was also revised higher by 44k. This stronger payroll number comes in the wake of 2 months of weak releases and the 3-month average now sits at 71k jobs. Average hourly earnings were .3% for the month and 3.1% year over year. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. After an initial spike above 4.8%, the 10-yr bond yield retreated to 4.768%. The appearance of a stronger jobs picture has increased the odds (61%) of a Fed Rate hike at the September meeting on Sept 16. The Fed will now look to next week’s inflation releases before making their decision. Mortgage prices are approximately 12.5 bps worse than yesterday’s pricing.
Wednesday we will see weekly MBA applications and ADP employment change.
Thursday’s Weekly Initial Jobless Claims are expected to decrease 1k to 205k. August core PPI is expected to increase .3% for the month and 4.6% annually. Existing home sales are expected to drop 1.6%.
Friday’s Core CPI is expected to show a .2% monthly increase and 2.4.% annual increase. We will also see September’s preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment is expected at 51.0.
This Market Update and similar such communications are for informational purposes only and are based on publicly available information. These materials are general communications, which are not impartial, and are provided solely for discussion purposes, and not in connection with any product or service offering. The opinions and views expressed in this Market Update are as of the date of this communication and are subject to change. Any forward-looking views and statements contained in this Market Update are based on current estimates or expectations of future events or results. Actual results may differ materially from those described in this Market Update. The views expressed in this communication should not be attributed to Guild Mortgage Company as a whole and may not be reflected in the strategies and products offered by Guild Mortgage Company.
