09/29/2026
The other day I mentioned how nostalgia sells, but it can also be dangerous to your portfolio. (see my Lost Boys reference)
Another Mind over Money threat point... RECENCY bias. Picture this...
It's October 2022. Stocks are down for the year, bonds are down too, and every headline says it's only going to get worse.
Your gut says: get out now, before it gets worse.
That's recency bias. Our brains treat the most recent stretch of events as the new normal and assume it will keep going.
Here's what happened next. The S&P 500 finished 2022 down about 18%. In 2023, it gained more than 26%. Investors who sold near the bottom locked in the loss, and many missed a good part of the recovery.
Nobody rang a bell at the low. It felt like the worst possible time to stay invested, and that's exactly why it's so hard.
The same bias works in reverse. When markets are soaring, we assume they always will, and we take on more risk than we planned for.
The fix isn't predicting the market. It's having a plan you can stick with when your emotions say otherwise: goals first, diversification on purpose, and rebalancing on a schedule instead of on headlines.
Before making a move, ask: "Has something changed about my goals, or just about the news?"
If you're feeling a bit jittery heading into the mid term election, Strait of Hormuz issues or rising interest rates... let's talk it through.
Next up: Anchoring, and why "getting back to even" isn't a strategy.
Disclosure: for educational purposes only. Not personalized advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.