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Lonesome Dove Energy LLC, 220 Elm Street, Lewisville, TX (2026)

09/03/2026

What a difference six days makes.
When I left the office last Friday, oil was moving higher and the physical market continued to look tight.
By Monday morning, we had the “biggest oil deal in world history,” 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan reserves in the headlines, and suddenly a wave of relief across the oil market.
I shared my thoughts on that Monday, so no need to rehash it. Those barrels are real, and the deal may prove very important over time. But reserves in the ground and barrels available to the market today are two very different things.
Fast-forward a few days.
Oil is back around the $90s. U.S. commercial crude inventories just fell another 4.5 million barrels. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve continues to be drawn down. The conflict with Iran hasn't disappeared. The Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. Russian refinery disruptions continue to pressure refined-product supply.
And now diesel is becoming a story of its own.
That may be the number worth watching.
Diesel works its way through trucking, agriculture, construction, manufacturing and ultimately the cost of just about everything we buy. When diesel moves sharply higher, the impact doesn't stay in the energy market for long.
I'm not saying,“I told you so,” and I'm certainly not claiming to know where oil trades tomorrow. I've been in this business long enough to know better than that.
I'm simply reading the tape and watching the fundamentals.
Headlines can move markets overnight. Physical supply eventually has to support the headline.
For now, crude inventories are drawing, the SPR is getting smaller, diesel is climbing, geopolitical risk remains very real, and oil has worked its way right back up.
From where I sit, things are progressing pretty much as expected.
Just another typical week in the oil business.
What a difference six days makes.

08/31/2026

Leave work Friday, come back Monday, and apparently we've solved the world's oil problems.
65 BILLION BARRELS OF VENEZUELAN OIL!
Well...not exactly.
It's 65 billion barrels of proven reserves.
There is a pretty important difference.
Those aren't barrels sitting in tanks. They're in the ground.
They still need wells. They need drilling. They need infrastructure. They need billions of dollars in investment. Then the oil has to actually be produced, transported, shipped and refined.
And Venezuela is currently producing around 1.25 million barrels per day and struggling with the infrastructure needed to efficiently move even that.
Their new target is supposedly more than 1.5 million barrels per day.
Okay. Let's get out the calculator.
If we're talking about producing 65 billion barrels over this 25-year agreement, Venezuela would have to average about 7.1 million barrels per day for 25 straight years.
Current production: ~1.25 million.
Target: 1.5+ million.
Required to produce 65 billion over 25 years: ~7.1 million.
See the problem?
Then there's another number buried beneath the headline.
Venezuela projects about $209 billion in state revenue, based on roughly $19 per barrel reaching the government.
Do that math and you get approximately 11 billion barrels, not 65 billion.
So what exactly did we suddenly acquire?
Reserves.
Potential future oil.
And yes, those reserves may ultimately have tremendous strategic value. I'm not discounting that at all.
But reserves aren't barrels.
Meanwhile, our Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down around 286.6 million barrels, the lowest level since 1982, and we're still dealing with Iran, Hormuz and a very uncertain geopolitical environment.
Those are actual barrels and actual supply issues happening today.
Maybe I'm old fashioned, but after spending enough years around the oil business, I still believe eventually somebody has to drill a well and produce the stuff.
Headlines can move markets.
Physical barrels supply them.

08/26/2026

I've been reading through the oil headlines and inventory numbers again this morning, and I keep coming back to the same question.
What am I missing?
I was taught a long time ago that if something doesn't quite make sense, keep digging. Peel back the layers until it does. Most of the time, once you've looked at enough of the pieces, things begin to make sense.
I'm having a harder time doing that with the oil market right now.
Oil has pulled back again, in part because of discussions surrounding a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. That's certainly welcome news. I hope it happens, and eventually I expect it will.
But when?
Meanwhile, gasoline inventories fell another 2.5 million barrels and remain below normal. Distillates increased 2.2 million barrels, but they're still about 14% below their five-year average as we get closer to fall and winter.
Commercial crude inventories look fairly normal. But peel back another layer and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is now below 300 million barrels and continues to be drawn down, sitting at levels we haven't seen since 1982.
So yes, commercial inventories look okay. But some of that comfort comes while we're steadily using up the emergency cushion sitting behind them.
Then there's the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic remains well below normal, but oil is already reacting to the possibility that negotiations work and more barrels begin moving freely again.
Again, I hope they do.
But they aren't yet.
Maybe I'm overthinking it. Maybe the answer is the same one I've heard plenty of times over the years: that's the oil business.
What hasn't changed is my longer-term opinion of oil itself.
I'm not positive about oil because of Iran. Or because the SPR is low. Or because inventories happen to be tight this month. Those things will change.
Wars end. Administrations change. Inventories build and draw. Technology advances. Prices go up and prices go down.
But through all of it, the world continues to consume an enormous amount of oil every single day.
That's the part I have a hard time looking past.
I don't know whether oil will be $75, $85 or $100 next month, and I'm not going to pretend I do. But in my lifetime, I don't see another commodity replacing oil on the scale necessary to run the global economy.
So, my opinion isn't going to change every time the headline does.
I read the headline. Then I go back and test it against the fundamentals.
Sometimes I find the answer.
Sometimes I just shake my head and say, well... that's the oil business.
Oliver Sawford
Lonesome Dove Energy

08/14/2026

Another interesting week in the oil and gas markets, and once again, I find myself reading the headlines and then trying to read between them.

Oil looks to finish the week higher, with WTI trading back into the low $80s. Normally, a 4% or 5% weekly move would get some attention. Considering what is happening in the Middle East, however, I continue to question how oil is only in the $80s.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the biggest uncertainties in the energy market. U.S.-Iran negotiations have stalled, shipping remains disrupted, and now we are hearing increasingly strong language regarding a continued U.S. naval presence and possible blockade. Roughly 20% of the world's oil and LNG normally moves through that region. Yet the geopolitical "risk premium" currently being assigned to crude seems remarkably small.

On the bearish side, we certainly had a headline this week. U.S. commercial crude inventories increased by more than 17 million barrels, the largest weekly build in years. That's a significant number and shouldn't be dismissed.

But I also don't think it should be viewed in isolation.

During the same period, another 6.1 million barrels came out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, bringing the SPR below 300 million barrels. Imports increased, exports declined, and U.S. refineries continue to operate at very high utilization rates. Those details don't make the commercial inventory build disappear, but they do provide some context behind a very large headline number.

Then we have the demand forecasts. OPEC, the EIA and IEA continue adjusting expectations as higher fuel prices and economic uncertainty weigh on consumption. Again, fair enough. Demand matters.

At the same time, consumers aren't exactly enjoying cheap energy. Gasoline remains expensive, diesel remains expensive, refining margins remain elevated, and geopolitical risk hasn't gone anywhere.

So I continue to look at both sides.

There are legitimate reasons oil isn't at $120. There are also legitimate reasons I have a difficult time understanding why it's barely holding in the $80s.

Perhaps the market has simply become conditioned to geopolitical headlines. Perhaps traders believe additional barrels will always appear somewhere. Perhaps demand destruction eventually does enough of the balancing. Or perhaps the price of crude still has some catching up to do.

Time will tell.

For most people, the daily price of oil doesn't matter until they pull into a gas station. Unless you're a trader, you're probably not checking WTI every morning.

From an investment standpoint, I tend to look at it differently. Owning an interest in producing oil and gas means participating on the production side of the energy equation rather than simply experiencing it as a consumer.

Commodity prices will move up and down. They always have. My interest remains in owning the underlying production and allowing those assets to work through the cycles.

Have a great weekend.

08/10/2026

Monday market observation.

Here we go again. This time last week, oil sold off roughly 7% as optimism grew around another potential agreement with Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Almost immediately, the conversation returned to oil settling back into the upper $70s.

Fast forward one week. That optimism has faded, uncertainty surrounding the Strait remains, and oil jumped roughly 5% Monday, putting WTI back above $82 and Brent near $88.

My question remains pretty simple. How is oil still trading in the $80s?

We have already seen oil well above $100 during this conflict as the market priced in a wartime premium. The difference today is that while the geopolitical risk remains, inventories have continued to be drawn down and the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has now fallen below 300 million barrels to approximately 298.7 million, its lowest level since 1983.

In other words, we have been using part of the cushion while the underlying problem has not gone away.

Could oil trade back into the $70s on another favorable headline? Absolutely. We have already watched it happen. But negotiations can change market sentiment overnight. They cannot replace physical barrels overnight.

As we approach the November midterms, it is also worth remembering that energy prices do not exist in a political vacuum. Gasoline prices and inflation matter to consumers, and policymakers certainly understand that. I will leave it there.

What interests me more is what happens if the physical market eventually has to catch up with the headlines.

I am not going to predict whether that means $90, $100 or $120 oil. But given what we have witnessed over the last several months, I continue to have a difficult time believing that an $80 barrel of oil tells the entire story.

We shall see.

08/04/2026

One of the most interesting observations this week is that we're witnessing one of the largest global oil supply disruptions in modern history, yet crude oil prices remain relatively measured.
Why?
Because oil markets don't simply price today's supply, they price what traders believe supply and demand will look like months into the future.
Every headline matters.
• OPEC+ production decisions
• Geopolitical events around the world
• U.S. drilling policy
• LNG export growth
• Global inventories
• Economic activity and future demand
All of these factors are reflected almost instantly through the futures market, where buyers and sellers continually price oil based on expectations, not just current production.
That is also why the market can sometimes seem disconnected from today's news.
Meanwhile, the long-term fundamentals of the U.S. upstream industry remain exceptionally strong.
• The United States remains the world's largest producer of oil and natural gas.
• The Permian Basin continues to be the most productive oil basin on Earth.
• LNG export capacity continues expanding, creating significant long-term demand for U.S. natural gas.
• Continued advances in horizontal drilling and completion technology have lowered development costs while improving recovery.
• More than $300 billion of industry consolidation over the past two years demonstrates just how valuable high-quality U.S. oil and gas assets have become.
One point many people don't realize is that energy prices affect far more than what we pay at the pump.
Fuel costs influence transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, utilities, and ultimately the price of countless everyday goods. Nearly everything we purchase has some level of energy cost embedded within it.
Oil remains one of the world's most important economic indicators, and understanding what drives pricing helps explain much of what happens throughout the broader economy.
As always, I'll continue watching the fundamentals rather than reacting to every headline.

07/30/2026

Over the past several months, we've watched geopolitical tensions escalate, supply disruptions make headlines, refining capacity remain tight, and energy markets react almost daily. None of that should surprise anyone.

Yet every morning, the headlines seem to tell a completely different story.

This morning, I read one article explaining that despite record U.S. refinery output, the world remains tight on gasoline and diesel. A few minutes later, I read another discussing layoffs tied to concerns about a future oil oversupply. No wonder investors struggle to know which narrative to believe.

After nearly 20 years in the oil and gas business, I've learned that headlines don't always reflect what's happening in the physical market. My job requires me to look at every angle bullish and bearish, optimistic and skeptical and then follow the data rather than the emotion.

A two or three dollar move in crude oil can suddenly become a "massive rally" or a "major collapse," depending on who's writing the article. In reality, commodity markets are rarely that simple.

The market will ultimately do what the market does. I don't pretend to know every short-term move, and I'm certainly willing to admit when I'm wrong. But I also believe it's important to separate daily headlines from longer-term fundamentals.

Rather than reacting to every news cycle, I'll continue watching the physical market, global supply and demand, inventories, refining capacity, and the broader geopolitical landscape.

At the end of the day, headlines don't determine prices. The physical market does.

As always, time will tell.

07/21/2026

Oil prices continue to hold near multi-month highs. Brent has now reached $90 per barrel, while WTI is trading around $85, both well above where we were this time last year.

The question I'm hearing more often now isn't necessarily where oil is today, it's where it's going next.

The truth is, nobody knows.

In my opinion, could prices move higher? Absolutely. Given everything that's transpired over the past several months, I believe there's justification for that.

Could they also move lower? Frankly, yes.

Markets react quickly to changing headlines, whether it's geopolitical conflict, recession fears, hurricane activity, OPEC policy, or economic data. Short-term price movements are impossible to predict with certainty.

What I do believe is that the market remains fundamentally supported. At its core, oil is still driven by supply and demand.

This time of year, most Americans experience the energy market at the gas pump. While crude oil has the greatest influence on gasoline prices often accounting for more than half the cost of a gallon, you're also paying for refining, transportation, storage, marketing, taxes, and retail margins.

One interesting characteristic of the gasoline market is what the industry calls "rockets and feathers." When crude oil prices rise, gasoline prices often move up like a rocket, sometimes almost overnight. But when crude prices fall, prices at the pump tend to drift back down much more slowly, like a feather.

Another topic that's been discussed quite a bit lately is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

The SPR exists as an emergency reserve designed to help the United States respond to major supply disruptions caused by events such as war, sanctions, hurricanes, or other national emergencies. It can provide temporary relief during supply shocks, but it is not a long-term solution. Even releases involving millions of barrels represent only a small fraction of what the world consumes each day.

For those who follow the energy markets, you'll often hear two benchmark prices referenced:

Brent Crude is the primary global benchmark used to price much of the world's internationally traded oil primarily waterborne crude.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is the primary benchmark for North American crude and largely reflects inland U.S. production.

While both are important, Brent generally provides the broader picture of global supply and demand.

Looking back over several decades, Brent reminds us that oil has never been a stable commodity. Wars, economic expansions, recessions, supply disruptions, and periods of oversupply have all produced dramatic swings in price. For investors, producers, and consumers alike, those swings create both challenges and opportunities.

The headlines may change from week to week, but the fundamentals rarely do.

Supply. Demand. And the market's constant effort to find balance.

07/14/2026

Looks like we are back at it.
A few weeks ago, I mentioned that I found myself chuckling when I saw oil trading back in the $70s.
At the time, the market was celebrating headlines suggesting we had reached some sort of resolution with Iran. My point then was simple: a Memorandum of Understanding and a temporary ceasefire are not the same thing as a lasting peace agreement.
Fast forward a few weeks, and here we are.
The headlines have shifted again, tensions have escalated, and crude has moved back toward the $80 range.
The market has a funny way of reacting quickly to the latest headline, sometimes forgetting that the underlying issues don't disappear overnight.
Geopolitical risk, supply concerns, and global energy demand have not changed nearly as fast as the headlines suggest.
Personally, I still believe $80 oil is cheap considering the environment we are operating in. Of course, I am certainly not going to argue with better economics for the industry.
My opinion remains the same: I believe we are more likely to see higher oil prices than lower prices as we move forward.
Time will tell. The market always has a way of humbling everyone.
But for now… I am still watching the fundamentals, not just the headlines.

07/08/2026

Morning thoughts after reading the headlines and watching the tape.

This isn't based on any one article or news report in particular it's simply my interpretation of the broader picture that's developing from following the energy markets and geopolitical events.

The more I look at the global landscape, the more I believe the next 18–24 months could bring some of the biggest shifts in geopolitical and economic power we've seen in decades.

Russia continues to bear the enormous costs of a prolonged war. Ukraine remains dependent on continued Western political and military support. Both sides face mounting pressure, and it's difficult to imagine the current situation continuing indefinitely without a significant change.

At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most important variables in the global energy market. Any prolonged disruption to energy flows creates ripple effects well beyond the Middle East, influencing oil prices, supply chains, inflation, and economic growth around the world.

China is another story and one worth watching closely. Between slowing domestic growth, heavy dependence on imported energy, and increasing geopolitical pressures, it faces challenges that could become much more pronounced if global energy markets remain constrained. In my opinion, those markets are already tighter than many realize. If you don't see it, I'd encourage you to broaden your news sources and compare different perspectives.

The United States is in a different position thanks to our domestic energy production and economic scale. Even so, policy decisions over the next couple of years will continue to shape global energy markets, trade, and strategic alliances.

I recently heard one of America's leading historians on Russia answer a question about how the Russia-Ukraine conflict ultimately ends. His response stuck with me. He said that almost nothing has unfolded the way many experts expected. His greatest concern wasn't necessarily who wins it was what happens when a major power feels it has no good options left.

I'll let everyone read between those lines for themselves.

No one including me has a crystal ball. These are simply my observations from following the energy markets, economics, and geopolitical developments.

I do believe we're entering a period where energy security, economic resilience, and political resolve will matter more than they have in a very long time.

I'm buckled in, watching closely, and I think the next couple of years are going to be some of the most consequential we've seen in a generation.

Lonesome Dove Energy LLC

09/03/2026

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