04/11/2025
Just before submitting this post, the 10-year Treasury had jumped to 4.51%—a significant move considering it was at 4.01% just a week ago. That’s a 0.50% increase in rates week over week, sending mortgage prices lower by over 1.5%.
As of today, the 30-year mortgage rate is around ~7%, compared to ~6.6% just seven days ago. While that’s a tough jump, it’s still slightly below the 7.25%+ levels we saw this time last year—offering a bit of optimism heading into the summer buying season.
From a macro view:
• If tariffs are neutral to moderately negative for the U.S., we could see rates move higher due to inflationary pressure.
• If tariffs go significantly wrong and push the economy into recession, rates could move lower.
Of course, there are other major variables—currency valuations among them—so we’ll see if this simplified take holds up.