Ethos Capital Ventures

10/01/2024

Yep, I’m the one who pulled the rug out from under the entire industry.

NO INVESTMENT WILL GO TO PLAN.

But you can rest easy because I have a way to mitigate poor investments.

Rule of Thirds.

Just learned this. It applies to everything.

Everybody is blowing smoke, including myself. However, can you discern what smoke is being blown and the probability of that smoke occurring?

So, how do you discern this?

Easy, Rule of Thirds.

Oh, this is a fantastically simple concept.

I’ve been teaching it to my daughters in volleyball (current season) but also how it has applied to basketball, martial arts, dance, academics, theatre, and all their past (and future) activities.

Here is the premise.

You will spend 1/3 of your time - equal time allotments - across three areas of experiences in an activity. You will be
1. Good 1/3 of the time
2. Average 1/3 of the time
3. Bad 1/3 of the time

Now, you are thinking - because I did - don’t you want to be Good 100% of the time.

No!

You must challenge yourself otherwise you will be bored, especially if you are neurodivergent like myself and my daughters.

You will also just have bad days where your mind, your body doesn’t perform. You are human - even the greats get beat.

But the greats ALSO came back. They had an Average day. They then had a Great day.

The greats pushed themselves to be better even on their Good days, but especially on their Bad days.

How do I apply this to real estate?

There will be Good, Average, and Bad days, weeks, months, years, and investments. Rule of Thirds.

Your objective is to fully eliminate the number of bad investments to zero (thankfully so far that is true for me).
But to also eliminate having a bad year.
And if Bad needs to occur (which it does), then to reduce it to Bad days or at the most bad weeks.

I do this through repeated stress testing of my investment thesis.
I do this by thinking about “how would this be easy?”
I do this by assessing what needs to be true today / now for my thesis to occur given the past performance (e.g. where do I go from here)?
I do this by journaling daily. Thinking daily.

👉 For the past two decades, I’ve helped blue collar business owners invest passively to build a family legacy. Daily, I try to be an amazing and while providing Main St investment options to the same individuals that built it.

🏘️ If real estate investing has always been something you’ve dreamed up but don’t have the time, let’s connect. I can show you how to have both.

08/09/2024

I'm the problem. It's me.

Two people quit today on my property management team.

I push too hard sometimes. Good time to put a mirror up to yourselves.

Do some self reflection. Think about what you truly desire.

I've delayed making an offer on a property. I will do that today.

But first a buddy called me who is passing through town. Going to go get some ribs.

I was reminded earlier today when I was talking with a small group of 10X thinkers that we need to still remind ourselves of the fun, the happiness, the excitement that can come from unexpected situations.

And this is what I do with my businesses, with my real estate portfolio, daily, and with my family (thanks Cathy Stella Huebner for telling me to do this in this arena too) - I set expectations but need to allow myself the reality that those expectations might not always pan out.

What struggles have you encountered today and where can I possibly help? I might find the answers I'm seeking through your situations.

👉 For the past two decades, I’ve helped blue collar business owners invest passively to build a family legacy. Daily, I try to be an amazing and while providing Main St investment options to the same individuals that built it.

07/05/2024

I cried last night. Hard.

First time since I had moved to Australia and had a WTF moment in late 2011.

I cried for myself. For my daughters. For my wife.

I’m neurodivergent. I have combined ADHD.

Maybe something else - I’m starting to explore that now like my wife and I are doing for one of our daughters. Shid, maybe I'm the problem.

But I want to be a better person, husband, father, business owner, investor, & friend.

It’s fugging scary.

Yet I put on my Superman armor daily for the outside world to see I’m invincible but I’m not sure if I want to anymore.

Does everything always have to go 100% to plan 100% of the time?

Or fugging worse! It HAS to be better than plan, otherwise you are ruled a failure?

Does it really matter if we get 2X returns or 7X returns? Could I be happy to deliver these results? Could you be happy receiving these results passively with very little effort on your end?

My father-in-law says “you can’t take it with you.”

Could I be happy with just knowing I learned a valuable lesson along the way?

I cried because my wife and I have made our home SO freaking safe for our daughters that they don’t respect me or my wife in our bubble.

OH, but they are amazing people outside of our bubble. I was made aware of that this past weekend, in which I smiled.

Because in the thick of it all, it is fugging tough to see the forest for the trees. That WE are raising amazing young, fierce, ambitious women in this house.

And all I asked of my daughters last night at dinner when they were bickering at each other was that after 12 years I want for them to be respectful of each other. It was not a huge ask.

Will see how today goes. But from what my wife said that my talk made a difference in the kids.

And that is what you ultimately get with connecting with Greg.

A transparent perspective.

I’m going to let you know if things are not going to plan, or if they are going to plan. Actually, I'm just going to tell you exactly what is happening.

I’m going to inform you of what my current thinking is, what actions we are taking, and updated expectations.

And that ☝ right there is what will make the difference between “successfully” (however you define it and definitely do NOT be a copycat) investing vs being annihilated during the next few years if you decide to invest in real estate.

I’ve been through hard yards. There are harder yards ahead - economically, emotionally, socially, with my family, with business, with friends I’ll reconnect with, and in real estate investing.

But now I’m more equipped to handle these situations because of my past experiences.

👉 If you are a blue collar business owner in construction, real estate, or similar businesses trying to be an amazing girldad and superman husband, then let’s talk about how you can spend more quality time with your family, build a successful business now, and lay the foundation for a family legacy brick by brick.

06/30/2024

This 40 person company is taking on two large industries to help curb greenhouse gas emissions:
- industrial food production
- livestock production
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2024/05/26/2003818390

Now, take the implementation one step further. Have the tanks be more horizontal in size and install in the vacant commercial office space that is prevalent around the US (and world) right now.

Those buildings already have infrastructure for a lot of the manufacturing process and the larger commercial spaces will have straight truck or even semi truck serviceability.

Now they’ve reduced logistic expense as well.
People are already setting up plant farms in office buildings.

Just the next step to get to more local food production and to help reduce inflation.

And maybe live healthier lives overall.

Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan

05/08/2024

A concept I’m obsessed with:

Adversity strengthens the foundations.

I’ve enjoyed teaching my daughter to drive. It is a great analogy for how life really works.

I told her the last time we went driving, everything you do in life is really just a metaphor for how you conduct yourself.

Driving, basketball, academics, friends, volleyball. All of it elicits adversity.

Adversity is something I desire my kids to experience. It is purely how I can assess whether they are ready for “the real world”.

Or in younger generation speak, IRL.

Adversity is a core strength of mine. I seek it out in my team members and in my partners.

You will desire someone who has gone through challenging real estate economic situations as we navigate the coming years.

Although you will be lulled to sleep during the continued boom times - and yes real estate as a whole is still in boom times regardless of the news cycle.

This is where your foundation gets strengthened. This period, right now, is adversity. You must buy solid assets at a good basis.

In fact, I passed on a deal last night. We were off in price by 20%. And it probably would have been a decent 15%+ IRR for my investors still at that higher price.

But my foundation is in a different deal structure and one from a partnership perspective. One where trust is developed even between buyer and seller.

And that trust was broken. Adversity.

I’m still building my foundation. I’m playing a 100 year game. I’ll wait out anybody else and just buy it later.

Like I did in November. For only a song (not even a dance!). It is a great deal!

Adversity strengthens foundations.

I love adversity. It helps you become you which makes you a better person.

Where are you seeing adversity in your real estate investing and how are you using that adversity to improve?

05/06/2024

Why is nobody talking about this?

I’ve been teaching my oldest daughter how to drive AND it has actually been a fun experience.

Unless you also teach driver’s education you don’t have a second set of controls on the opposite side of the car. You have to give up control!

::: And if you’ve been actively investing in real estate and don’t believe you can give up control (like my Landlord Dad) then you need to sit in the passenger seat of a newbie driver.

Those of you who have teenage kids have gone through similar feelings I’m sure. But, you’ve probably seen your child’s confidence level rise dramatically because of driving, which is great to see occur in them.

::: If you are looking to invest passively, you also have to have a sense of giving up control. You need to partner with somebody who has a sense of calm during the toughest storms.

You have to maintain your level of calmness when you do not have control of your vehicle anymore. You need to transfer your trust to your child to help provide them the confidence to help keep you calm.

::: Similar to investing passively in real estate, there are always “rough patches” in the real estate market. The general partner(s) with whom you invest need to transfer their trust to you that they can handle both planned and unplanned situations so you can have the confidence in them to have the best outcome based on the situation.

The path to leading a more financially rewarding life begins with giving up control. But as a business owner with employees, contractors, and others engaged you’ve had to give up control so the business would grow.

The path to leading a more financially rewarding life begins with giving up control. But you do this when you invest in a stock - you basically have no control over what that company does.

The path to leading a more financially rewarding life begins with giving up control. You Pareto Principle (80/20) your life times 5 (like I have). You’ve “let go” of so many aspects of your business and your life therefore your time provides you the freedom you desire.

Now is the perfect time to give up control. Seriously.
It is a great time to buy solid assets at a great basis that will be protected even during rough economic times forthcoming.

Therefore, since you enjoy asking yourself better questions to improve your life:

What do you need to give up control of TODAY to lead a more financially rewarding life?

05/03/2024

Red Flag Questions to ask in your passive real estate investments.

Short post here. Obviously there are a of reasons to NOT invest in real estate.

And everyone who has invested for a couple decades has “war stories”. If they don’t then they have not been doing it right. This is where lessons are learned.

And I’ve said before: Lessons are REPEATED until learned.

Therefore, to help other passive investors not repeat the mistakes of others, here are some topics and questions you should address with the individual(s) offering private placement real estate backed investment opportunities.

Topic: Is this a novice or experienced investor / general partner:
=> With all the [positive / negative] aspects in the market, where are we headed over the timeline of this investment?

Topic: The only constant is change:
=> When you get new data, what is the process for updating your investment model and thesis?

Topic: Has the general partner learned lessons:
=> What is the biggest mistake you wish you could undo and what specifically have you implemented to not repeat this moving forward?

Topic: Life changing situation:
=> What has been life changing for your investors who have invested with you?

Topic: Focus attention:
=> Where should I as a passive / limited partner investor focus my attention?

Topic: Down sell / down play the investment opportunity:
=> What are 3 reasons why I or anybody else should not invest with you / in this investment opportunity?

Hope these questions help guide you on your passive investment journey. The beautiful aspect is that you can ask these questions about almost anything in life as well.

I know there are a lot of investing options when it comes to real estate - way more than when I started. If you’re struggling with being overwhelmed but know real estate IS the path forward, then a great first action is to start asking questions to mentors.

But don’t let fear and indecision hold you back any longer so let's connect. The year is ⅓ of the way done. 2025 will be here shortly.

04/30/2024

The best piece of advice I can give you is Black Swans do exist and they are not as rare as one believes.

I was in Los Angeles this past week. Beverly Hills actually.

Went out for a meal with some extremely capable individuals focused on providing passive investments backed primarily by real estate.

The evening / nighttime scenery was fantastic atop a rooftop restaurant overlooking the Hollywood sign in the distance.

The conversations covered a lot of ground.

Then somebody dropped the showstopper. They said some of their investors was waiting to invest until the dreaded “Black Swan” event occurred.

I bit my lip.

For a few minutes.

“There will be another cataclysmic event but not yet. It won’t occur in single family houses though. Maybe Commercial Real Estate.”

Other conversations ceased.

I was asked, “What do you think will be the cause?”

”Insurance. Crypto-backed real estate loans. Maybe something else but honestly the cause doesn’t matter. Just be aware that something is coming.”

Therefore, if something is coming, why am I so excited (like a little kid I’ve told others)?

Because the properties that will transact, the ones that I’ll buy, will be at a great basis that will help me weather any upcoming downturn.

Buying at a great basis, off of 2021/2022 high prices, will allow you to weather upcoming storms.

“Things always take longer to happen than people desire.”

The early warning signs are there.

“Land has already started to top out. Next is to watch the Homebuilders stock index for a lower high. That is when you need to make sure you are not refinancing in 2027, 2028, 2029.”

It was a great night. Hopefully I shed some wisdom.

But, lessons are repeated until learned.

I’m grateful I saw Black Swans aplenty during my time in Australia therefore I’m not worried about the future of real estate.

But are you? Are you anxious or worried or have any other feelings about a future “real estate apocalypse”?

04/26/2024

Don’t be shocked when the words I speak become reality.

“I would not plan for a refinance in 2027, 2028, 2029.”

I made this statement last night at dinner with 4 other real estate investors.

Investors that have admittedly acquired more real estate than I have.

You should not in your business plan have a refinance scheduled in those years. You might be disappointed in the result.

Why?

Timing. Natural cyclical events. Time Rhymes as I like to say.

-> It likely will not be over-leveraged single family houses this time.
-> It very well might be Insurance-related.
-> Crypto-backed real estate loans is another rational cause.
-> The broad Commercial Real Estate market might be the culprit.
-> It could be the Federal Reserve, Congress, etc…

Honestly, I’m not looking to be “right” about the cause. I’m just planning for the event. The cause is irrelevant, truthfully.

You, as a real estate investor, should be aware of how the land-based economy moves.

Here’s a tip - follow the home builders index on the stock market.

Here’s a 2nd tip - learn how to read a stock chart. Lower highs = trouble.

When you see that lower high, tighten the ships.
You should actually be tightening the ships now. I am.

But you should also looking to buy solid cash flowing investments with a good basis. I am.

But should you buy or should you sell or should you leave the US?

You’re asking the wrong question.

Being a profitable real estate investor is about making prudent financial decisions based on your current knowledge and current capabilities.

It is the ability to focus on One Thing.

What do you really desire?

-> Find a WHO: If you desire to be more hands-off and passive then find a really solid operator who has weathered past economic storms.
-> Build Relationships: Connect with other investors.
-> Find a Mentor: People love to provide their wisdom.
-> Don’t Be Afraid To Ask For Help: This was my mistake; don’t let it become yours.

I’d love to know: What do you desire as a result of investing in real estate?

04/25/2024

Here’s the kicker. You don’t need to care about all this real estate parlance mentioned below if you do only one thing.

Investing is simple. Do the Work. Get the Reward.

You don’t need to do ALL the Work. Just focus on the one thing you need to do as a passive real estate investor.

That one thing: You need to find the operator(s) who does understand these concepts and invest alongside them.

You find yourself a WHO for your real estate investing.

Case in point: You’ve heard the news that interest rates are unlikely to go down anytime soon. There were several articles in my data news feed yesterday alone because of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting next week.

Here’s where I stand: I’m betting that interest rates will INCREASE.

Therefore, pushing real estate prices HIGHER.

Because FOMO is going to kick in since we’ve entered The Winner’s Curse phase of the real estate cycle.

And real estate prices will go HIGHER because the Capitalization (Cap) Rate will DECREASE (from more demand). There will be more of a natural spread between Interest rates and CAP rates.

Which actually gives the false hope that real estate is getting less expensive from a relative basis.

But it is also getting less expensive on an absolute basis too. Sellers always lag the market. They are starting to “throw in the towel” from 2021 / 2022 high prices.

Sellers are accepting that they will not get that high of a price. They missed out.

Their misfortune is to your advantage.

But again you don’t need to know all of this. But you can - follow me if you desire.

The one thing you need is to find the WHO that will help you invest in real estate without adding friction to your life.

And that WHO better understand where we are at in the Credit Creation Cycle and invest correctly.

Actually, you probably should connect with me if you DON’T want to buy at the top of the market in a few years.

04/24/2024

There’s one thing my 72 year old “landlord” dad has not learned with real estate investing:

It is incredibly Fun.

Fun in that you can Create Value in so many ways.

Fun in that what you do actually change lives for those who are less fortunate through our investing.

Fun in that you get to Enjoy Freedom, however you define Freedom for you.

Fun in that you can actually Have Fun in the Process. You know me - I’m odd I’m told. I enjoy the Process. The destination is just another part of the Process.

The destination is also the Reward.

But the Reward usually kicks off another Process and therefore the Process is the Work.

Therefore, you need to decide what aspect of real estate investing makes sense for you. Where you can have fun.

Don’t do everything for decades and be unhappy like my landlord dad.

A lot of investors want to be active because they believe there is more money to be made further up the food chain. There might be but it comes from the Work. It is not passive.

Therefore, if you don’t want to do all the Work necessary to actually succeed at real estate investing then learn from my landlord dad and focus on one aspect.

You find a WHO for your passive real estate investments. And your single objective is to maintain a relationship with that operator.
Simple.
One thing.

And maybe, just maybe, that is Fun for you because then you get to enjoy all the other aspects of your life fully.

Interested in only performing ONE activity in your real estate investing instead of doing everything like my 72 year old “landlord dad” still does?

If so, drop SIMPLE in the comments and tell me what single aspect of real estate investing interests you most.
Or what challenges you face in getting to a single activity.